10 Races Left In NASCAR Common Season: Who Makes Playoffs And Who Would not

Bob Pockrass

FOX Motorsports Insider

With 10 races left within the NASCAR Cup Sequence common season, 10 drivers ought to really feel like they’ll breathe simple in terms of making the playoffs. Two extra ought to really feel fairly good.

Kyle Larson, with 3 NASCAR Cup Sequence wins in 2025, has clinched his playoff spot

The opposite 24 full-time drivers? They need to take a win-and-in strategy.

The playoff discipline of 16 drivers is made up of the regular-season champion plus the 15 drivers primarily based on the variety of wins with ties damaged by factors.

There have by no means been greater than 16 winners within the 26-race common season, so sometimes there are a few spots accessible to these highest in factors with no wins.

Of the ten races remaining, three are on avenue or highway programs (Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen), three on tracks between 0.75-to-1 mile (Dover, Iowa, Richmond), two are on drafting tracks (Atlanta, Daytona) and two are on massive tracks that race as a hybrid of intermediates and speedways (Pocono, Indianapolis).

So who’s within the discipline and who must be nervous? Let’s have a look.

Denny Hamlin is locked into the NASCAR postseason

They Received. They’re In

Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell are completely locked in with three wins apiece this yr.

The one method a driver with one win doesn’t get in is that if there are seven new winners within the subsequent 10 races. That is extremely unlikely in a season the place there have been 10 winners in 16 races.

Listed here are the one-win drivers and their factors: William Byron (604), Ryan Blaney (466), Ross Chastain (443), Joey Logano (411), Austin Cindric (337), Josh Berry (320) and Shane van Gisbergen (242).

All of these drivers ought to really feel secure.

Good On Factors?

Chase Elliott, who at the moment has a 146-point edge on the present cutoff, and Tyler Reddick (+123) must be in. That is until there are 5 new winners, and so they aren’t amongst these 5 within the remaining 10 races.

However for the second, depend them in. That leaves 4 spots accessible.

Bubba Wallace hasn’t received but this yr however is above the playoff cut-off line

Good … For Now?

The 4 different drivers at the moment above the bubble are Bubba Wallace (+57), Chase Briscoe (+39), Alex Bowman (+22) and Chris Buescher (+19). All 4 could be no shock in the event that they received and all 4 could be no shock in the event that they slumped and miss the playoffs.

None of those drivers have essentially been on the verge of persistently successful. Bowman has 110 laps led (of 4,331 this yr), Wallace has led 103 laps, Briscoe 92 laps and Buescher 16 laps.

Let’s check out every one:

Wallace (+57): Wallace could have the most effective shot to win on the drafting tracks in addition to Pocono and Indianapolis. He has two profession victories, one at a drafting observe and one other at an intermediate. He has three high fives this yr.

Briscoe (+39): Briscoe has proven pace with three latest poles. He has two profession victories, and his finest photographs might be Pocono and Indianapolis, as he has run his finest on intermediate tracks. Of all these 4 drivers, he has probably the most high fives (5) this yr. Briscoe made the playoffs final yr in dramatic trend by successful the regular-season finale at Darlington (which is the playoff opener this yr).

Bowman (+22): Bowman has probably the most profession wins of any of those drivers with eight, and he has received at quite a lot of tracks. He received at Chicago final yr to make the playoffs. He has three high fives this yr.

Buescher (+19): In 2023, Buescher received three of the ultimate 5 regular-season races, together with at two tracks (Richmond and Daytona) which can be among the many remaining races. The factor is, he has had simply two top-five finishes this yr.

Slight Likelihood On Factors

These drivers at the moment behind the cutoff would wish every little thing to fall their method and a powerful remaining 10 races to make it on factors. Their finest guess is to win. Let’s have a look.

Ryan Preece (-19): Preece has by no means received a Cup race. However he could be above the cutline if he wasn’t disqualified from Talladega for too many shims on his spoiler. Preece has proven extra constant pace than all of the drivers under the cutoff.

Michael McDowell (-43): McDowell has two profession Cup wins — one at Daytona after which on the Indianapolis highway course. The drafting tracks and highway programs stay his finest probabilities.

AJ Allmendinger (-45): Allmendinger has one high 5 this yr (at Charlotte) however his finest guess might be on the highway programs, the place all three of his profession Cup wins have come.

Kyle Busch (-50): The motive force with 63 Cup wins however using a 73-race winless streak might be a menace anyplace. His top-10 finishes this yr have come on quite a lot of tracks.

Will Kyle Busch break his winless streak and safe a postseason spot?

Might they win?

Carson Hocevar (-60): Hocevar has had a pair of runner-up finishes this yr. His greatest downside is that he has angered too many different drivers. And on this planet of give-and-take, he received’t be given something.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-61): Stenhouse has 4 profession victories however hasn’t led a lap this yr. The drafting tracks are probably his solely shot to win.

Erik Jones (-62): Jones has three profession wins however is using a 95-race winless streak. The drafting tracks are probably his finest likelihood, though his two high 10s this yr have come on intermediate tracks.

John Hunter Nemechek (-72): Nemechek has three high 10s in his final six races. He would wish issues to fall his method, however he has 24 profession wins in Xfinity and vehicles. So he shouldn’t be flustered if he will get within the place to win.

Ty Gibbs (-77): Gibbs remains to be on the lookout for his first profession win, as he enters his 104th profession begin. He seemed to be the one driver who might problem Shane van Gisbergen final week at Mexico Metropolis. His finest finishes this yr had been a 3rd at Michigan and a 3rd at Bristol. This exhibits that it might be any observe the place he threatens for his first profession win.

Austin Dillon (-89): Dillon, who has 5 profession victories, received at Richmond final yr in controversial trend, however he has at all times been stronger there. Richmond and the drafting tracks are his finest photographs.

Daniel Suarez (-99): With three high 10s this yr, Suarez’s two profession victories have come on a highway course (Sonoma) and a drafting observe (Atlanta). Each are on the remaining schedule for the common season.

Brad Keselowski (-140): Keselowski has 36 profession win,s and whereas he hasn’t had the season he wished, if he’s in place to win, he is aware of get to the end line first. However the information are that he has only one high 5 this yr.

Lengthy Photographs

This group successful could be upset metropolis, as they’ve but to indicate a lot this season in terms of difficult for a win:

Zane Smith (-86, two high 10s this yr), Todd Gilliland (-87, two high 10s), Justin Haley (-126, one high 10), Ty Dillon (-137, no high 10s this yr), Noah Gragson (-142, three high 10s), Cole Custer (-169, one high 10), Riley Herbst (-177, no high 10s): Cody Ware (-272, no high 20s). Amongst them, Haley and Custer every have one profession win.

Prediction

It’s arduous to say, however past the ten winners already this yr … Elliott, Reddick, Wallace, Bowman, Buescher and Gibbs. Whereas different drivers have been extra constant this yr, Gibbs has been the strongest currently to indicate he’s near the win. And he has carried out it at quite a lot of tracks. Is that this a diss of Briscoe? Possibly, however he hasn’t turned his latest poles into race-winning threats.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports activities. He has spent a long time overlaying motorsports, together with over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting Information, NASCAR Scene journal and The (Daytona Seaside) Information-Journal. Comply with him on Twitter @bobpockrass.