2025 Faculty Soccer Week 7 Odds: Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s Professional Picks, Greatest Bets

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We have been up final week, and we're up on the season. Cannot actually ask for way more than that.

Let's hold rolling.

Final Week: 3-2Season: 20-12-1

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No. 8 Alabama @ No. 14 Missouri

Love the spot right here for Missouri. The Tigers have been off final week, and Alabama has simply performed consecutive emotional video games, together with ending the nation's longest residence profitable streak at Georgia after which getting revenge on a ranked, undefeated Vanderbilt. And the Tigers have large revenge at stake off a 34-0 loss final yr to the Tide. On the sector, Alabama has been susceptible to the run this yr, giving up 230 yards at Florida State and 227 at Georgia. Enter dual-threat QB Beau Pribula and RB Ahmad Hardy. Accidents and basic put on and tear on the defensive aspect of the ball for the Tide may very well be a giant issue. Extra on this sport within the Bear Bytes part, however I'm on board with M-I-Z right here.

PICK: Missouri (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 factors or win outright

No. 7 Indiana @ No. 3 Oregon

Indiana looks like final week’s Vanderbilt. Looks as if everyone seems to be on the ‘canine right here, however my Bear Bets colleague Geoff Schwartz requested an important query on the present: "The place is Indiana higher than Oregon?" Whereas he's an Oregon alum, he’s not a kind of guys with blind religion for his groups. The Hoosiers’ numbers away from residence final yr towards good groups weren't good in any respect (see the Bear Bytes part for specifics) and I’m unsure that they'll be capable to run the ball on a superb Oregon entrance. Penn State positive as heck couldn’t and the Nittany Lions have among the finest RB tandems within the nation. I’ll lay it right here with the Geese, who individuals appear to be questioning this week after Penn State’s loss at UCLA. "Is Oregon that good? Look what occurred to Penn State." Drawback with that considering is, in the event you suppose the Penn State that confirmed up final week on the Rose Bowl was the identical Penn State that confirmed up for the White Out, you’re flawed. Oregon ripped its coronary heart out two weeks in the past and now the Geese get to make use of that gasoline of doubt on one other top-10 opponent this week.

PICK: Oregon (-7) to win by greater than 7 factors

Air Power @ UNLV

I get not desirous to again an academy after an in depth loss to a different academy, however UNLV might have some issues right here slowing down the Flyboys' run sport. It is a borderline miracle the Rebels are undefeated at this level within the season, and I’ll take the factors.

PICK: Air Power (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 factors or win outright

Wake Forest @ Oregon State

The winless Beavers most likely deserved a greater destiny towards each Houston and Appalachian State. Now they arrive residence and host a workforce making the prolonged cross-country journey off an upset win at Virginia Tech. Maalik Murphy is liable to turning the ball over, however he’s additionally very able to making the massive play. Beavs have an important likelihood to get their first win of the season.

PICK: Oregon State (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 factors or win outright

No. 22 Iowa State @ Colorado

I wasn't anticipating to again the Buffaloes right here, however right here we're. CU very simply might have received each video games towards BYU (3-for-9 on third down) and TCU (-4 in turnover margin) the final couple of weeks. Now it will get an Iowa State workforce off its first lack of the season and one which has fairly a couple of harm issues. If Kaidon Salter would not flip it over 4 occasions, there shall be loads of probabilities for the Buffs to generate some huge performs towards a protection that allowed 474 yards on eight yards per play final week in that loss at Cincinnati.

TCU @ Kansas State

Okay-State did all the pieces however win final week at Baylor. Avery Johnson had his finest sport of the yr, however the Cats couldn’t maintain on to a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead. Okay-State has now misplaced 4 video games this yr by a mixed 13 factors. I am not bought the TCU protection can gradual the Cats offense down and this looks as if a spot the place Okay-State lets out some frustration from a season of shut calls.

PICK: Kansas State (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 factors or win outright

UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE

Final Week: 1-1, +1.2Season: 11-16, +8.9

Oregon State +120Kansas State +100Missouri +130Air Power +205Colorado +115

BEAR BYTES

Preseason No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Penn State and No. 4 Clemson are all unranked and have a mixed seven losses. Their eight wins this yr have come over FIU, Nevada, North Carolina, Sam Houston State, San Jose State, Troy, UTEP and Villanova.

Because the begin of 2023, Oregon is an FBS-best 17-0 at residence and Missouri is tied for second at 18-1. Each are concerned in ranked matchups this week — No. 3 Oregon is internet hosting No. 7 Indiana and No. 14 Missouri is internet hosting No. 8 Alabama.

There are three unranked groups favored over ranked groups this week: Texas -1.5 towards No. 6 Oklahoma, USC -2.5 vs. No. 15 Michigan and Utah -6.5 vs. No. 21 Arizona State. Unranked groups on this spot up to now this season have received two of three video games — Arizona State over TCU and Cincinnati over Iowa State. The loser was Nebraska vs. Michigan. So, that is the second time a ranked Michigan workforce has been a street underdog vs. an unranked workforce.

That is the primary time since 2022 that each Penn State and Texas will play a sport as an unranked workforce.

It Simply Means Extra…

Most TO + sacks allowed + penalties per sport amongst Energy 4 groups:

Auburn — 3.2South Carolina — 12.2Mississippi State — 12.0Texas — 11.8Texas A&M — 11.6Louisville — 11.6

Texas vs. No. 6 Oklahoma

A lot has been made from James Franklin’s 4-21 mark at Penn State towards top-10 groups and 3-12 mark in top-10 matchups. However Steve Sarkisian’s mark at Texas isn’t a lot better. Sark is 3-8 towards top-10 groups and 2-5 in top-10 matchups. Each have a CFP semifinal look on their resume.

This might be the primary Oklahoma-Texas sport with a selection beneath a area objective since 1995, when the sport resulted in a 24-24 tie.

The Longhorns have received three of the final 4 conferences once they entered the sport unranked and the Sooners have been within the prime 10. On the flip aspect, Oklahoma received the one time it entered the sport unranked and the Longhorns entered within the prime 10.

That is the primary time since 2017 that an unranked Texas will play a ranked Oklahoma workforce. Every of the final 5 situations when unranked Texas confronted a ranked OU workforce, Texas both received or misplaced by lower than a landing.

Massachusetts @ Kent State

This snaps a streak of 27 consecutive video games vs. FBS opponents by which Kent State is an underdog. The final time the Golden Flashes have been favored vs. an FBS workforce was 2022, once they misplaced 31-24 to Japanese Michigan as 7.5-point favorites.

No. 7 Indiana @ No. 3 Oregon

In two street video games final season towards top-five groups, Indiana scored 32 complete factors, was outscored by 16.5 factors per sport, outgained by 140.5 yards per sport and averaged 3.6 yards per play. Its first landing at Notre Dame got here with 1:27 remaining and the rating 27-3. It scored on its first drive at Ohio State, however didn’t rating once more till the rating was 31-7 Buckeyes.

That is the fifth top-10 matchup this season. The primary 4 have been all received by the decrease ranked workforce and every was determined by seven factors or fewer.

Relationship again to the 2022 CFP Championship Sport, there have been 37 top-10 matchups. The unfold hasn’t mattered in 34 of the 37. Win the sport, and also you cowl the unfold all however thrice (34-1-2). In that stretch, 14 underdogs have received outright, with Washington’s win over Oregon within the 2023 Pac 12 sport as a 10-point ‘canine the lone ’canine of a minimum of six factors to win outright. The one favourite in that stretch to win outright and take a loss towards the unfold (ATS) was Texas in final yr's CFP, when it beat Arizona State 39-31 as a 13.5-point favourite.

Oregon has allowed one sack and dedicated one turnover this season. For those who take a look at dangerous or undisciplined performs, these are two of the very best within the nation at not committing them. Oregon has a mixed 20 penalties, sacks allowed and turnovers misplaced. And 4.0 per sport is the fewest within the nation. Indiana averages 5.3 per sport, which is tied for fourth.

In reality, six of the eight groups within the nation who commit the fewest per sport are within the Large Ten.

Iowa @ Wisconsin

Iowa is looking for its first four-game profitable streak over Wisconsin since 2002-2005. Every of the final 5 conferences has been determined by a couple of rating and the loser hasn’t scored greater than 10 factors.

No. 18 BYU @ Arizona

Relationship again to 2017, there have been seven video games by which a workforce that is 5-0 or higher has been favored on the street over a workforce with a profitable report by lower than a area objective. These seven groups went 1-6 ATS and 2-5 outright.

No. 21 Arizona State @ Utah

Relationship again to 2017, there have been 20 ranked groups that have been underdogs of a minimum of 5.5 factors to an unranked workforce. These 20 groups have gone 4-16 straight up (SU) and the final 4 every misplaced by double digits.

No. 1 Ohio State @ No. 17 Illinois

Ohio State has received and lined seven straight towards ranked groups. The common margin of victory in these video games is 15.3 PPG.

The final 4 situations that Illinois went right into a sport as a minimum of 14-point 'canine, the Illini scored 9, seven, 13 and 17 factors, the primary two coming final yr towards No. 1 Oregon and No. 9 Penn State when Illinois entered the sport ranked twentieth and nineteenth.

Within the CFP period, AP No. 1 is 121-2 when favored by a minimum of 14 factors. The 2 losses are each by Alabama — final yr at Vanderbilt and in 2021 at Texas A&M.

The story of the yr for Illinois has been creating and capitalizing off turnovers. It's first in factors off TO differential (+42), first in opponent fumbles misplaced (8), tied for first in factors off turnovers (52), and tied for second in turnover margin (+7).

Illinois has allowed 19 sacks this yr, which is second most within the P4. The 11% sack charge is 131st within the FBS.

No. 8 Alabama @ No. 14 Missouri

Kalen DeBoer groups are 6-1 when favored in ranked matchups. The lone loss got here final yr at Tennessee when the Tide have been 3.5-point favorites.

Alabama compelled two purple zone turnovers final week and leads all P4 groups with a +8 TO margin.

All six of Alabama’s opponents this season have entered the sport undefeated.

Alabama beat Missouri 34-0 final yr when Brady Prepare dinner was injured after which backup Drew Pyne was picked off thrice. Since 1978, there have been 28 situations the place a ranked workforce allowed greater than 30 factors in a shutout loss and had an opportunity at revenge the next season. The outcomes have been fairly good for the revenge-minded workforce, with 10 profitable outright and one other eight shedding by 4 factors or fewer. Many of the groups that bought blown out within the rematch confronted a few of the finest groups of the period — classic Alabama, Miami, Florida State and Nebraska.

So historical past tells us that, with payback on the road, this one shall be shut. For those who look solely on the final 25 years, 5 of eight received outright, two misplaced by a area objective and one misplaced to nationwide champ Alabama. The latest instance was Oklahoma State in 2023, which misplaced to Kansas State 48-0 in 2022 after which beat Okay-State 29-21 the next season.

Washington State @ No. 4 Ole Miss

That is the eighth time since 2022 that Ole Miss is favored by 30 factors or extra. The Rebels lined six of the seven and received these seven video games by a 410-36 margin, permitting greater than seven factors solely as soon as.

No. 10 Georgia @ Auburn

Final yr’s OT win over Texas A&M snapped a nine-game residence shedding streak as an underdog for Auburn.

Georgia has received eight straight towards Auburn, every by a minimum of seven factors and 6 of eight by a minimum of 17 factors.

Auburn has allowed a national-high 4.2 sacks per sport and a 13% sack charge.

Auburn leads the nation in opponent rush success charge at 74.7%. Georgia is fifth at 72.1 %. Which QB will be capable to throw and/or create on damaged performs will decide a winner right here.

Pitt @ No. 25 Florida State

Florida State has misplaced seven straight ACC video games and is 1-9 in ACC play relationship again to final yr. Pitt is 1-7 in its final eight video games vs. P4 groups.

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has lined sports activities for almost three a long time. Whereas faculty soccer has been his focus, he additionally enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such occasions. Chris just lately received the inaugural Circa Soccer Invitational and completed within the High 10 of the Golden Nugget Soccer Contest. He is a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Bear in mind, "The much less you guess, the extra you lose while you win!" Comply with him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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