2025 MLB Contender Rankings: The Hardest Closing Month Earlier than the Postseason?

On the finish of the month, we’ll have postseason baseball. However the highway to get there can have loads of curves.

The Tigers, Brewers and Phillies (even after getting swept by the Mets) all preserve comfy leads of their respective divisions, however solely two video games separate the highest groups in each the NL West and AL West. In the meantime, the three-team battle within the AL East is getting attention-grabbing with the Blue Jays, Yankees and Pink Sox all separated by solely 3.5 video games. 

How tough is the energy of schedule remaining for these golf equipment in September? Discover out extra beneath on this week’s contender rankings. 

(Be aware: Contender rankings solely embody groups inside 5 video games of a playoff spot as of Sept. 1.)

After lastly hitting a little bit of a rocky patch, the Brewers emerged with a sequence win at Toronto over the weekend. On a crew that’s larger than the sum of its components, it’s price singling out the person contributions of Freddy Peralta, who has now gone 4 straight outings with out permitting a run and completed August with only one run allowed in 28 innings. That is nonetheless one of the best crew in baseball, and their schedule forward isn’t precisely daunting — there’s a mixed 12 video games in opposition to the Cardinals, Pirates and Angels — however they’ll get some good assessments in opposition to the Phillies, Rangers and Padres earlier than season’s finish. 

They nonetheless have the largest division lead of any first-place membership, but it surely wasn’t an awesome look getting swept by the A’s in Sacramento. The Tigers rapidly made up for that, although, profitable a sequence in opposition to a Royals crew that appears just like the next-best crew within the AL Central. Detroit nonetheless has six video games remaining in opposition to Cleveland. Outdoors of that, their remaining schedule is cut up between prime competitors (the Pink Sox and each New York golf equipment) and lesser foes (White Sox, Marlins, Braves). 

After getting swept by a Mets crew that has had their quantity, the Phillies made their NL East lead extra comfy once more by taking three of 4 video games in opposition to the Braves to complete the weekend. With a six-game lead, FanGraphs offers the Phillies a 91% probability to win the division. The highway forward is likely one of the more durable ones among the many contenders, with matchups nonetheless to go in opposition to the Brewers, Dodgers and (gulp) the Mets. It eases up on the finish, although, as their season ends in opposition to the D-backs, Marlins and Twins. 

Regardless of a irritating outing in opposition to the Mets, Bryce Harper and the Phillies are closing in on the NL East crown. (Picture by Mitchell Leff/Getty Pictures)

The Blue Jays have maintained the benefit within the AL East, however they’re not making it any simpler on themselves these days, having misplaced seven of their final 13 video games. Final week was their second straight 3-3 week, and their lead is now solely three video games over the surging Yankees and three.5 over the Pink Sox. They don’t have a very straightforward highway forward, both, having to play each of these division rivals, and the Astros and playoff hopefuls Royals and Reds. 

They swept the Reds then practically bought swept themselves by the D-backs earlier than salvaging the sequence with a walk-off win on Sunday. They’ve seven video games remaining in opposition to the Giants, which appeared like a very good factor for a lot of the previous couple of months, however San Francisco is abruptly scorching. The Dodgers additionally must play the Phillies and Mariners earlier than season’s finish, which makes the following 9 video games in opposition to the Pirates, Orioles and Rockies an important stretch to increase their lead on the Padres. 

Their sweep in Anaheim wasn’t the leaping off level they’d hoped, as they adopted instantly by getting swept in San Francisco. The Cubs salvaged the week by taking a sequence in Colorado, however they’re now 6.5 video games again of the Brewers with 25 video games to go. Their spot within the playoffs isn’t a query, however FanGraphs understandably offers them only a 4% probability to win the division. That mentioned, they do have one of many best schedules forward amongst contenders. The Mets are the one crew left on their schedule that’s greater than a recreation above .500. 

The Yankees wanted to care for enterprise in opposition to the Nationals and White Sox, and so they did. A hazardous subsequent couple of weeks await in opposition to the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers and Pink Sox, however they’ve a minimum of constructed themselves a pleasant wild-card cushion. And if they’ll emerge from this upcoming stretch in fine condition, they’re arrange nicely as they shut the common season in opposition to the Twins, Orioles, White Sox and Orioles once more. 

Aaron Choose and the Yankees are transferring up this week’s rankings. (Picture by Justin Casterline/Getty Pictures)

Dropping a sequence final week at Seattle was forgivable. Dropping one other proper after in Minnesota was … not. The Padres had been unable to realize floor on a Dodgers crew that was practically swept over the weekend by Arizona, however they’ll take some solace figuring out they’ve the best energy of schedule remaining of the contenders with seven extra video games in opposition to the Rockies and three apiece in opposition to the White Sox and Orioles. 

After dropping a sequence to the Pirates, the Pink Sox had been leapfrogged by the Yankees for second place within the AL East. The Blue Jays, Yankees and Pink Sox are all now inside 3.5 video games of each other in what needs to be an interesting battle to the end, with all three groups in a great place to a minimum of make the postseason even when they miss out on the division title. The Pink Sox will need to care for enterprise of their six video games left in opposition to the A’s as a result of the remainder of the schedule is hard. They nonetheless have a sequence apiece remaining in opposition to the Blue Jays and Yankees, in addition to one in opposition to the AL-best Tigers. 

Yordan Alvarez is again, however the Astros’ offense continues to be struggling to attain, plating not more than 4 runs in any of their final seven video games. They’ve a a lot tougher highway forward than the Mariners membership they’re attempting to carry off, and the way they carry out inside the AL West — 16 of their final 25 video games are in opposition to division foes, together with seven in opposition to the Rangers — will largely decide whether or not they can clinch the division for the fifth straight yr. 

Yordan Alvarez and the Astros are retaining an in depth eye on AL West rivals the Mariners and the Rangers. (Picture by Alex Slitz/Getty Pictures)

The brand new-look Mariners simply can’t appear to realize any steam. They went 4-2 on their homestand in opposition to the A’s and Padres solely to then drop a sequence to the Guardians and have now misplaced 11 of their final 17 video games. They’re solely 2.5 video games forward of the Rangers for the ultimate wild-card spot…however they’re additionally solely two video games behind the Astros for the AL West lead. In the event that they’re going to make their transfer, now could be a very good time. After a highway journey to Tampa Bay and Atlanta, the Mariners will host the Cardinals and Angels. 

They swept the Phillies, transferring inside 4 video games of Philadelphia for the highest spot within the NL East on the time, solely to then flip round and lose three of 4 to the Marlins, who scored 32 runs over 4 video games. The Mets have a cushty four-game benefit for the ultimate wild-card spot but additionally have one of many hardest schedules remaining — their subsequent 5 sequence are in opposition to groups with profitable data. That does, nonetheless, embody 4 extra video games in opposition to a Phillies crew they’ve gone 7-2 in opposition to this yr. 

Is that this a very good time to level out that the Rangers’ run differential is 67 runs higher than the Mariners crew they’re chasing for the ultimate wild-card spot? This Texas crew stays an enigma, not possible to determine. When they need to win, they falter. Whenever you rely them out, they get again in competition. They’ve misplaced Corey Seager to an appendectomy, Nathan Eovaldi to a rotator cuff pressure, Marcus Semien to a foot fracture and Evan Carter to a wrist fracture, and but have now gained eight of their final 9 video games to maneuver 4.5 video games again of the Astros for the AL West lead and a pair of.5 video games again of the ultimate AL wild-card spot. 

Since profitable seven of eight video games to place themselves firmly within the playoff combine, the Royals have since misplaced six of their final 11 video games, together with each sequence in opposition to the division-leading Tigers in that stretch. If the Royals are going to make issues attention-grabbing, it most likely has to occur this week in a homestand in opposition to the Angels and Twins.

Each Ohio golf equipment are in the same boat, on the outskirts of the playoff image with their possibilities of a wild-card spot fading. However after a six-game dropping streak, the Guardians bounced again by profitable sequence in opposition to the Rays and Mariners final week. They nonetheless have six extra video games in opposition to the AL Central-leading Tigers, however in addition they have seven video games in opposition to the Twins and White Sox earlier than season’s finish. 

An uphill climb is in retailer for the Guardians and their postseason hopes. (Picture by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire through Getty Pictures)

The Reds had their probability to make a playoff push whereas the Mets had been scuffling for a lot of the month, however Cincinnati squandered that probability, and now their hopes are rapidly fading after a 1-5 week. They had been swept on the Dodgers, misplaced a sequence to the Cardinals and have the toughest energy of schedule remaining amongst contenders. Their homestand continues in opposition to the Blue Jays and Mets earlier than touring to San Diego. 

The percentages are nonetheless closely in opposition to them — FanGraphs offers them a 2% probability to make the playoffs — however they’ve gained seven of eight video games and picked up sequence wins in opposition to the Brewers, Cubs and Orioles within the course of to a minimum of put themselves again within the combine, now 5 video games again of a wild-card spot. They’ve a very good probability to maintain the nice vibes alive on a highway journey to Colorado and St. Louis and get to play these golf equipment a mixed 12 occasions of their remaining 25 video games. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB author for FOX Sports activities. He beforehand lined the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved again to the West Coast in 2014. Observe him on X at @RowanKavner.

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