2025 NASCAR Playoff Image: Whose Bubble Will Burst?

Bob Pockrass

FOX Motorsports Insider

Because the common season winds down and drivers make a run to land a spot within the NASCAR Cup Collection playoffs, these exterior the cutline are searching for wins.

A win ensures a spot within the playoffs until there are extra winners than spots obtainable. The 16 spots go to the regular-season champion after which 15 drivers based mostly on wins with tiebreakers by factors.

Proper now — because of Shane van Gisbergen successful Sunday at Watkins Glen for his fourth victory of the yr — there have been 13 winners with two races remaining, so everybody with a win will get in.

The 2 races remaining within the common season: Richmond (0.75-mile oval) and Daytona (2.5-mile drafting oval). Each have the potential to see new winners, however the odds are that at the least one spot, if no more, will probably be obtainable on factors.

Right here’s a breakdown of who’s in and who’s on the bubble on the subject of factors and who wants a win.

Assured Spots

Drivers with wins locked into the playoffs: Denny Hamlin and Shane van Gisbergen with 4 wins, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell with three and William Byron with two. Plus these with one win: Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric and Josh Berry.

Denny Hamlin owns a series-high 4 wins this season after conquering Dover.

No Win, Tiny Fear

Tyler Reddick. Reddick has a 57-point edge on the following winless driver (Alex Bowman) and presently sits 117 factors above the playoff cutoff. If there have been three new winners (and he isn’t one in all them), he’d be out. However he is in comparatively good condition and would clinch a spot after Richmond if he has a 57-point edge on the final driver forward of the playoff cutoff (presently that’s an 83-point margin on Buescher).

Tyler Reddick continues to be looking for his first win of 2025.

On Factors Bubble

If there are two new winners, these drivers would almost certainly miss the sphere (until they’re amongst these winners). Right here is how the bubble appears:

Bowman (+60 on the present cutoff), Chris Buescher (+34) and Ryan Preece (-34).

Should Win

The opposite 19 drivers both want unbelievable runs and luck with no win or extra seemingly a victory to make the playoffs: Kyle Busch (-102), Ty Gibbs (-125), AJ Allmendinger (-129), Brad Keselowski (-153), Carson Hocevar (-156), Erik Joens (-157), Michael McDowell (-160), John Hunter Nemechek (-160), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-198), Zane Smith (-203), Austin Dillon (-212), Daniel Suarez (-225), Justin Haley (-230), Todd Gilliland (-242), Ty Dillon (-263), Noah Gragson (-319), Cole Custer (-324), Riley Herbst (-331) and Cody Ware (-455).

Of these drivers, eight have by no means gained a Cup race: Gibbs, Nemechek, Hocevar, Gilliland, Ty Dillon, Gragson, Herbst and Ware.

Richmond Outlook

Of drivers who want a playoff spot, Busch (six wins), Keselowski (two), Buescher (one), Bowman (one) and Austin DIllon (one) have gained at Richmond. Stenhouse has fourth and Preeece has a fifth.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports activities. He has spent many years overlaying motorsports, together with over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting Information, NASCAR Scene journal and The (Daytona Seaside) Information-Journal. Observe him on Twitter @bobpockrass.