Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
The NBA and NHL playoffs haven’t disillusioned within the drama division. That is very true within the NBA, the place we have seen greater seeds get destroyed, in addition to some unlucky accidents to superstars.
However that is what retains us tuned in, watching and wagering on an opportunity to capitalize off some thrilling matchups.
With that in thoughts, I’ve bought a number of spots that I like for tonight’s contests.
Let’s check out the place I am placing my money mid-week.
Knicks @ Celtics
The Knicks are up 3-1, a surprising end result after the primary 4 video games of this collection. Boston was round -700 to win the collection, and whereas the Celtics are nonetheless alive to take action, they’re lacking their famous person in Jayson Tatum.
Tatum tore his Achillies close to the top of Recreation 4 and has already been within the working room to repair the tear. This harm may do little to change the trajectory of the collection, however I’m going to wager on the Celtics group rallying collectively early in Recreation 5 to indicate everybody they haven’t stop and might play nicely with out Tatum.
The Celtics have been the quicker beginning group in 4 video games up to now. They gained the primary quarter by a degree in Recreation 1, then 11 in Recreation 2, 16 in Recreation 3 and 11 in Recreation 4. A few of these quick begins didn’t embody high-scoring output from Tatum. He had zero first-quarter factors in Recreation 2 and 6 in Recreation 3.
Boston can begin quick with out its star.
Mix that with the Knicks’ poor first-quarter taking pictures and with the satisfaction Boston ought to have after that Recreation 4 loss, and I just like the Celtics to start out quick.
PICK: Celtics (-2) first quarter
Payton Pritchard Over/Underneath 14.5 factors
After Pritchard scored 23 factors in 35 minutes within the Celtics’ Recreation 3 win, he noticed his minutes lower in Recreation 4. It’s a puzzling determination, with Sam Hauser out and with different Celtics gamers struggling to attain. Pritchard completed Recreation 4 with 20 minutes, the fewest he’s seen because the finish of February. He’s bought to play extra in Recreation 4 now that Tatum’s out of the lineup.
For the collection, Pritchard has scored 13, 9, 23 and 12, however he shoots the ball nicely when given the prospect. He’s taking pictures 41% from 3, which mirrors his dwelling 3-point taking pictures proportion for the common season. He’s simply going to see the ball extra on this sport, and I like his probabilities to recover from this quantity.
PICK: Payton Pritchard Over 14.5 factors
Knicks go up 3-1 on the Celtics. Is it clear the collection is over?
Warriors @ Timberwolves
The Timberwolves grinded out two wins in San Francisco to return again dwelling for Recreation 5 up 3-1. Another win, and they’re again within the Western Convention finals. They’ll get that win tonight, however I’m not laying Over 10 factors.
I’ve discovered two different methods to wager on this sport.
The Warriors have made an incredible effort to attain with out Steph Curry. He’ll miss tonight after exiting Recreation 1 with a hamstring harm. That effort is appreciated, however it is going to be a shedding battle. The Warriors have performed 5 highway video games within the postseason and have scored underneath 100 in 4 of these. On this collection, they’d 99 factors in Recreation 1 and 93 in Recreation 2.
In Recreation 1, Curry had 13 factors in Recreation 1 earlier than getting injured. G.S. bought 18 from Draymond Inexperienced, who made 4 3-pointers. Buddy Hield scored 24 factors, and has since failed to attain over 15 within the subsequent three video games. The Timberwolves protection is superb, and it has restricted the Warriors from past the arc.
PICK: Warriors group complete Underneath 95.5 factors scored
This is one other wager, and it is an ideal zigzag spot for Naz Reid taking part in at dwelling.
Reid averages almost 15 factors at dwelling, 1.5 factors greater than on the highway. His area objective proportion is seven factors greater, and he shoots 41% from 3 at dwelling. His factors Over has hit this season in 73% of dwelling video games. He scored 19 in Recreation 1 at dwelling after which 11 in Recreation 2, adopted by 9 and 5 in Video games 3 and 4 on the highway.
Typically you must belief the zigzag system and that is the perfect alternative for this sport. I like Reid to attain.
PICK: Naz Reid Over 10.5 factors
Rudy Gobert Over/Underneath 4 rebounds within the first quarter
Robert has been a rebounding machine early in video games. He had over 4 rebounds within the first three video games and completed with solely three in Recreation 4.
Nevertheless, as I tweeted, it seems he’s bought at the very least a fourth rebound right here and possibly a fifth earlier than a free ball foul. The official scoring of this play was a Wolves group rebound.
Anyway, I’m going again to the nicely right here with Gobert Over first-quarter rebounds. I anticipate the Warriors to overlook extra photographs on this sport as nicely.
PICK: Rudy Gobert Over 4 first-quarter rebounds
Are the Timberwolves constructed to win the NBA Finals?
Panthers @ Maple Leafs
I’ve three hockey wagers for tonight, and they’re all correlated.
A development I’ve adopted is wagering on groups to attain first after they lose. Hat tip to Jonathan Davis — @westcoasthky — for bringing consideration to this development. It’s a good higher wager when the group off a loss is at dwelling. Within the second spherical, there have been seven alternatives for dwelling groups to attain first within the sport following a loss. In six of these video games, the wager was gained. The lone loss was when the Leafs scored first in Recreation 3.
Tonight, the Leafs return dwelling after shedding the earlier two video games in opposition to the Panthers. They’ve scored the primary objective in three of 5 video games. Mockingly sufficient, Florida scored the primary objective in Recreation 2 off a loss — a win for the development on the whole. So I’m taking Toronto to attain first in regulation tonight.
PICK: Maple Leafs (-110) to attain first in regulation
Oilers @ Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are internet hosting the Oilers tonight after splitting each video games in Edmonton. The Knights are combating for his or her season tonight, down 3-1 within the collection. The house group off a loss has scored first in each alternatives on this sport — the Knights in Recreation 2 and the Oilers in Recreation 4.
The Knights generate a ton of scoring alternatives and I’d anticipate much more power and energy to attain early on this sport after being shutout in Recreation 3.
PICK: Golden Knights (-125) to attain first in regulation
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Observe him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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