2025 NFL Midweek Betting Report: 'To Make the Texans a Favourite is Baffling'

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst

Per week in the past, when sportsbooks put out look-ahead strains for NFL Week 5 odds, the Baltimore Ravens have been 9.5-point residence favorites vs. the Houston Texans.

Then Sunday, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered a hamstring harm in a 37-20 loss at Kansas Metropolis. Jackson is uncertain to play this week, and Baltimore is banged up elsewhere, as effectively.

Correspondingly, the road has considerably shifted. Maybe an excessive amount of.

“It’s a really weird recreation. This recreation final week was Ravens -9.5. Now it’s Texans -1.5,” Caesars Sports activities head of soccer buying and selling Joey Feazel stated Wednesday afternoon. “To me, Lamar Jackson is price 6.5 factors. This line going by way of zero to make the Texans a favourite is baffling to me.”

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Texans-Ravens and different intriguing video games, as we dive into NFL Week 5 betting nuggets.

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Over-Correction?

On Monday, within the wake of Jackson’s harm, Caesars Sports activities reopened the Texans-Ravens unfold at Baltimore -4.5. Inside an hour, that quantity was right down to -3.5.

In contrast with the look-ahead line, that was most likely nearly proper, with Jackson price 6.5 factors to the unfold.

However Tuesday introduced a bunch extra motion.

Baltimore has a slew of defensive gamers questionable for Sunday, and Professional Bowl defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike is finished for the season with a neck harm.

On offense, left deal with Ronnie Stanley can be questionable.

Caesars slid the Ravens to -2.5/-2/-1.5, then jumped the Texans to 1.5-point favorites and truly acquired to Texans -2.5 briefly. As of Wednesday afternoon, it’s Houston -1.5 once more.

“We’re solely seeing Texans cash to this point this week,” Feazel stated, whereas noting the general public betting lots may not get as concerned with this matchup. “I believe there will likely be restricted motion, with bettors not realizing find out how to play this recreation.”

NFL Rocks On FOX

America’s Sport of the Week on FOX pits the Washington Commanders vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, in a 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff. It’s a battle of two playoff groups from final season.

The Chargers are 3-1 straight up (SU) and in opposition to the unfold (ATS), coming off an upset highway loss to rookie QB Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants. The Commanders (2-2 SU and ATS) look as in the event that they’ll get Jayden Daniels again below middle, after he missed two video games with a knee subject.

Caesars opened the Chargers as 3-point residence favorites, and as of Wednesday afternoon, it’s Chargers -2.5 (-120).

“If Daniels is unquestionably in, we’ll see line motion towards the Commanders,” Feazel stated. “Regardless of the Chargers’ bizarre recreation in New York, we’re nonetheless seeing Chargers motion this week.”

Thursday Theater

The primary recreation on the NFL Week 5 odds board is seeing noteworthy line motion, thanks once more to accidents. Caesars opened the Los Angeles Rams as 3.5-point residence favorites vs. the San Francisco 49ers, and midweek, L.A. is all the way in which out to -7 (-105).

That’s largely because of the expectation of 49ers QB Brock Purdy (toe) not enjoying. San Fran is beat up elsewhere, too, most notably at wideout, with Jauan Jennings (ankle/ribs) and Ricky Pearsall (knee) questionable.

“So it’s not solely Purdy. The 49ers are hurting injury-wise. And the Rams are enjoying actually good soccer. A variety of early cash is coming in on the favourite,” Feazel stated.

Robust Schedule

In FOX Sports activities’ preseason strength-of-schedule report, the Philadelphia Eagles got here in at No. 4. Maybe that quantity would’ve been even larger if it was simply based mostly on the primary 5 weeks.

For the fourth week in a row, Philly is dealing with a playoff group from final season, this time internet hosting the Denver Broncos. Nevertheless it’s labored out high-quality to this point for the Eagles, one among solely two unbeaten groups left, at 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS.

Denver (2-2 SU and ATS) took two losses on final-seconds subject targets, then rebounded at residence in Week 4, drilling Cincinnati 28-3 on Monday evening. However which means the Broncos have a brief week and lengthy highway journey in opposition to the defending Tremendous Bowl champions.

“Sharp bettors are nonetheless believing in that Broncos aspect. Nearly each week, we’ve seen Broncos sharp cash,” Feazel stated.

With that, the Eagles have dropped from 5.5-point favorites to -3.5 by midweek, with stops at -5/-4.5/-4 alongside the way in which. However Philly has gotten and can seemingly proceed getting help from the lots.

“We’ve seen public Eagles cash,” Feazel stated.

NFL Sharp Aspect

Skilled bettor Randy McKay is getting concerned with one other high-profile recreation in NFL Week 5 odds: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the Seattle Seahawks.

Each groups are 3-1 SU, with the Seahawks additionally 3-1 ATS and the Bucs 2-2 ATS.

Seattle is on the rise at Caesars Sports activities, opening at -2.5, rapidly attending to -3 and sitting at -3.5 (-105) Wednesday afternoon. McKay acquired in on the Seahawks at -3 (-120).

“There are journey and harm troubles for the Buccaneers,” McKay stated. “Seattle additionally has extra relaxation, and the Seahawks’ protection ought to have success in opposition to Tampa Bay’s beat-up inside offensive line.

“Plus, Sam Darnold has seemed good to this point in Seattle’s offense.”

Tampa is certainly banged up. Broad receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) is out for a second straight week, and operating again Bucky Irving (foot/ankle) is questionable. The Bucs are down two starters on the offensive line, too, with proper guard Cody Mauch (knee) out for the season and proper deal with Luke Goedeke (foot) out a number of video games.

As for relaxation goes, Seattle performed within the Week 4 Thursday evening recreation, plus Tampa has to make the lengthy highway journey for a 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.

Monday Night time Cash

Wrapping up Week 5: the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.

At 2-2 SU and ATS, the Chiefs aren’t fairly the place many anticipated them to be at this level. Ditto for the Jags, however in a extra optimistic manner, with Jacksonville out to a 3-1 SU and ATS begin that included an upset win at San Fran final week.

However midweek, bettors are leaning into the highway favourite at Caesars Sports activities.

“It’s one-sided with the Chiefs, and we’ve moved from -3 to -3.5,” Feazel stated. “I believe we’ll proceed to see extra Chiefs motion. Bettors are again on Kansas Metropolis.”

I Like Huge Bets And I Can’t Lie

NFL Week 5 odds haven’t seen a lot in the way in which of main wagers at midweek. However Caesars revealed one notable early play:

$50,000 Colts -6.5 (-115) vs. Raiders. If Indy covers at residence on Sunday, then the bettor income $43,478.26.

Hopping within the not-so-wayback machine, the Jets-Dolphins Monday evening recreation drew a large wager at Borgata Sports activities, a BetMGM property in Atlantic Metropolis: $1.3 million on Jets +3.5 (-160) vs. Dolphins.

The Jets really closed as 2.5-point underdogs. So the bettor performed an alternate unfold of +3.5, therefore the -160 value.

Not that it mattered both manner. From halfway by way of the second quarter on, New York wasn’t protecting both quantity and misplaced 27-21. In order that was a large donation to the home.

And speculating a bit: The wager may’ve come from the identical high-roller who put practically $2 million on Penn State moneyline -175 vs. Oregon. That’s two seven-figure wipeouts, totaling greater than $3 million, in mainly 48 hours, from Saturday evening by way of Monday evening.

Oof.

On the flip aspect, a DraftKings Sportsbook buyer put down a miles-more-modest $100 wager on a two-leg player-prop parlay:

Darren Waller to attain the primary landing within the Dolphins’ recreation vs. the JetsBo Nix to attain the primary TD within the Broncos’ recreation in opposition to the Bengals

The percentages for that have been a hefty +36300, or in easier-to-read phrases, 363/1. And the wager hit, for a $36,300 revenue. It’s onerous to beat that form of ROI.

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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