Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
At this level final summer time, Las Vegas oddsmakers believed the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks had the five-best probabilities to be basketball’s final group standing after the 2025 NBA Finals.
My, how issues have modified.
Oklahoma Metropolis did its job, turning into the youngest group to win an NBA championship in 48 years, whereas Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the league in scoring and took house each league MVP and Finals MVP.
Elsewhere, there was chaos.
A lot in order that Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets are thought of some of the possible groups to problem Oklahoma Metropolis’s throne. Sure, the identical Kevin Durant that was drafted by the Seattle Supersonics in 2007 earlier than their relocation to Oklahoma.
The very best title worth I noticed on Houston to win the title pre-Durant commerce was 18-1, and now you’re fortunate to seek out something in double digits. Phrase travels quick.
Westgate SuperBook’s 2026 NBA title odds
Thunder +225Cavaliers +800Knicks +900Rockets +900Lakers +1400Magic +1400Timberwolves +1400Nuggets +1600Spurs +2000Celtics +2500
“We had the Rockets at 12-1 [before acquiring Durant],” Westgate vp of danger Jeff Sherman informed me. “Moved from 12 to 10 initially and settled at 9. We acquired one wager at [10-1]. I used to be aggressively low on Houston and San Antonio due to all their youth and property.”
Sensible guys aren’t betting the Rockets at these low costs.
In the meantime, it positive feels just like the Celtics are punting on subsequent season and kicking the can down the street for when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can play collectively once more. Tatum was considered one of three gamers who tore his Achilles within the postseason, and it’s not honest to anticipate him to return inside 12 months.
Boston’s been relatively busy this week, buying and selling Jrue Vacation to Portland and Kristaps Porziņģis to Atlanta, breaking apart a significant a part of the core that delivered the franchise’s 18th championship final summer time.
“The Celtics knew they’d get thus far, win or lose,” Sherman stated. “They needed to shed wage to get underneath the second apron. Give them credit score for attempting to repeat, however issues had been at all times going to be totally different subsequent 12 months.”
Sherman went to 18-1 on the Celtics instantly after the Vacation commerce and moved all the best way out to 25-1 after the Porziņģis commerce.
Translation: Boston just isn’t successful the title.
My sights are set on the East, a convention that’s as wide-open because it will get. For those who’re not a believer in Cleveland or New York, you may go virtually anyplace.
Anyplace however Charlotte, Chicago and Washington, that’s.
“Given the [Tyrese] Haliburton harm and the way open the East is, I believe the Sixers are utterly mispriced,” Sherman stated. “If [Joel] Embiid can play to his capabilities, the reward may undoubtedly be well worth the danger.”
Yow will discover Philadelphia at 13-1 to make the NBA Finals and there’s a 16-1 on the Detroit Pistons, a group {that a} couple different sharps are clever on. Splitting a unit on these groups to win the East actually isn’t the worst concept on this planet.
In spite of everything, fortune favors the daring.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and the BetMGM Community. He beforehand labored for WGN Radio, NBC Sports activities and VSiN. Comply with him on Twitter @spshoot.
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