Is Ivory Coast's crimson card politics an personal objective for democracy after Tidjane Thiam's ban

[ad_1] Paul Melly West Africa analyst

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/76cf/live/697c1640-2b60-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/76cf/live/697c1640-2b60-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/76cf/live/697c1640-2b60-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/76cf/live/697c1640-2b60-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/76cf/live/697c1640-2b60-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/76cf/live/697c1640-2b60-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/76cf/live/697c1640-2b60-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/76cf/live/697c1640-2b60-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Reuters Female PDCI supporters protest against a court judgement to remove their leader Tidjane Thiam from the electoral list in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. One holds up a campaign poster of Thiam waving - 24 April 2025" class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> Reuters Even a stellar worldwide enterprise profession can not put together you for the laborious realities of politics in Ivory Coast, the place some are questioning the democratic credentials of the West African nation most well-known for being the producer of a lot of the world's cocoa and a few of its most interesting footballers.

That's the painful lesson Tidjane Thiam is studying as he waits to see whether or not deal-making within the corridors of energy and widespread stress from the road can rescue his bid to turn out to be president of Ivory Coast.

Seemingly relentless progress in the direction of the election set for this October got here to a juddering halt on 22 April when a choose dominated that the 62-year-old had misplaced his Ivorian citizenship by taking French nationality many years beforehand and never revoking it till too late to qualify for this 12 months's vote.

Transferring again to Ivory Coast in 2022 after greater than twenty years in world finance, Thiam had instantly been seen as a possible contender to succeed present head of state Alassane Ouattara who, at 83, is now within the remaining 12 months of his third time period of workplace.

A scion of a standard noble household and an excellent nephew of the nation's revered founding President, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, he had impressed as a high authorities official and minister within the Nineties, overseeing infrastructure improvement and radical financial reforms.

A navy coup then pushed Thiam to hunt a recent profession overseas, which culminated in high-profile stints as chief govt of UK insurance coverage big Prudential after which the banking group Credit score Suisse.

However returning residence ultimately, three years in the past, he launched into a gentle advance in the direction of the subsequent Ivorian presidential election.

After the dying in 2023 of former President Henri Konan Bédié, long-serving chief of the opposition Democratic Social gathering of Ivory Coast (PDCI), Thiam was completely positioned to take his place after which on 17 April this 12 months he was chosen because the occasion's candidate for the upcoming presidential race.

That was no assure of victory, and particularly if - as appears fairly believable Ouattara opts to run for a fourth time period, backed by all of the belongings and benefits of incumbency and a observe report of 4 successive years of annual financial progress above 6%.

Nevertheless, Thiam stood out because the prime different.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/5a47/live/a86d8fe0-2b61-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/5a47/live/a86d8fe0-2b61-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5a47/live/a86d8fe0-2b61-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/5a47/live/a86d8fe0-2b61-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/5a47/live/a86d8fe0-2b61-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/5a47/live/a86d8fe0-2b61-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/5a47/live/a86d8fe0-2b61-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5a47/live/a86d8fe0-2b61-11f0-8ff1-59f5dcf8e9f5.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="AFP Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara (R), wearing an orange cap and orange patterned shirt, congratulates footballer Sébastien Haller (L), wearing the national team's orange football shirt, with a thumbs up after the Elephants won the Africa Cup of Nations in Abidjan - 11 February 2024." class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> AFP President Ouattara congratulates French-Ivorian Sébastien Haller after he scored the objective that clinched the Africa Cup of Nations title for Ivory Coast final 12 months

As an opponent of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), he supplied Ivorian voters the possibility to alter their authorities.

But together with his centrist politics and stable technocratic credentials, his candidacy supplied reassuring competence and the prospect of continuous the spectacular financial progress that Ouattara has piloted since 2011.

Now that potential trajectory is blocked. If the court docket choice stands - and Ivorian legislation presents no choice of enchantment for this specific problem - Thiam shall be out of October's contest.

It's a race from which previous court docket convictions have already excluded three different distinguished opposition figures - former President Laurent Gbagbo, former Prime Minister Guillaume Soro and a former minister, Charles Blé Goudé - all central actors within the political crises and civil conflicts that brutally paralysed the progress of Ivory Coast between 1999 and 2011.

The prospect now could be that Ouattara or any chosen RHDP successor candidate will method the election with out going through any heavyweight political problem.

That may solely deepen Ivorians' already widespread widespread disillusionment with the nation's political institution.

That is in opposition to the broader context of a West Africa the place the unconventional anti-politics rhetoric of the troopers who've seized energy in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger already finds a sympathetic viewers amongst many disenchanted younger folks.

That actually issues in societies the place, sometimes, three-quarters of the inhabitants is below 35.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/7e96/live/e466c630-2b64-11f0-8686-fb39aea3a90c.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/7e96/live/e466c630-2b64-11f0-8686-fb39aea3a90c.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7e96/live/e466c630-2b64-11f0-8686-fb39aea3a90c.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/7e96/live/e466c630-2b64-11f0-8686-fb39aea3a90c.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/7e96/live/e466c630-2b64-11f0-8686-fb39aea3a90c.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/7e96/live/e466c630-2b64-11f0-8686-fb39aea3a90c.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/7e96/live/e466c630-2b64-11f0-8686-fb39aea3a90c.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7e96/live/e466c630-2b64-11f0-8686-fb39aea3a90c.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="AFP The construction site of the Yopougon bridge in Abidjan in March 2023 showing cranes, concrete pillars and an elevated curved flyover." class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> AFP The financial system of Ivory Coast, thought to be the regional powerhouse, is rising and has recovered effectively below Ouattara from the devastation of current civil wars

Amidst this disaster for West African democracy, there have been some moments of encouragement.

In Liberia in 2023 and in Senegal and Ghana final 12 months, incumbent governments have been voted out, in free and honest elections whose outcomes have been accepted by all contestants with out argument.

The Senegalese outcome, specifically, owed a lot to the huge enthusiastic mobilisation of younger folks.

Many hoped that Ivory Coast might supply an extra constructive instance of democratic selection and the supply of change, and an instance that is likely to be all of the extra influential as a result of the nation is a affluent regional powerhouse.

It's the financial engine of the CFA franc single forex bloc and apart from the cocoa business, it's also a key hub for enterprise providers and finance and a number one political voice within the regional grouping, the Financial Group of West African States (Ecowas).

What occurs in Ivory Coast actually issues and is extensively seen, throughout West Africa and certainly, additionally proper throughout francophone Africa extra typically.

Ouattara is among the continent's most distinguished statesmen, commanding broad respect internationally too.

And but now the run-up to the nation's essential subsequent presidential election has turn out to be ensnared in a return model of the identification politics that so soured the bitter disputes and instability of the Nineties and 2000s.

Again then, the governments of first Bédié after which Gbagbo used the contentious "ivoirité", that means "Ivorian-ness" legislation to close Ouattara out of standing for the presidency on the grounds that his household allegedly had international origins.

It was solely in 2007 that the federal government scrapped the ban on his candidacy and solely in 2016 - when he was already in workplace - {that a} new structure ultimately ended the requirement that the said dad and mom of presidential candidates be native-born Ivorians.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/0088/live/fa722040-2b65-11f0-b26b-ab62c890638b.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0088/live/fa722040-2b65-11f0-b26b-ab62c890638b.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0088/live/fa722040-2b65-11f0-b26b-ab62c890638b.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/0088/live/fa722040-2b65-11f0-b26b-ab62c890638b.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/0088/live/fa722040-2b65-11f0-b26b-ab62c890638b.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/0088/live/fa722040-2b65-11f0-b26b-ab62c890638b.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/0088/live/fa722040-2b65-11f0-b26b-ab62c890638b.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0088/live/fa722040-2b65-11f0-b26b-ab62c890638b.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="AFP Former Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo, in a white long-sleeved shirt with grey embroidered pockets, smiles as he holds hands with President Alassane Ouattara, wearing a grey suit, white shirt and blue tie. Behind them can be seen army officers - both in face masks, one saluting, one holding a gun - 27 July 2021" class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> AFP President Ouattara (L) has reconciled with Laurent Gbagbo for the reason that 2011 post-poll unrest, however his predecessor is barred from searching for workplace once more

The toxic mobilisation of identification points had been a significant contributing issue to the civil wars, avenue violence and northern separatist partition that brutally scarred Ivory Coast for greater than a decade, as much as 2011, at a price of 1000's of lives.

At present the nation feels removed from such large-scale battle.

There isn't any widespread urge for food for a return to confrontation and politicians are staying effectively away from the incendiary rhetoric of the previous.

However the Thiam saga exhibits how identification points, even in a extra legalistic type and on this hopefully extra peaceable period, can nonetheless weigh closely.

Ivory Coast solely permits twin nationality below sure restricted situations.

So in its 22 April ruling, an Abidjan court docket declared that, below the phrases of a little-used post-independence legislation, Thiam had robotically misplaced his Ivorian citizenship nearly 4 many years in the past when he acquired French nationality - after a number of years' research in Paris.

Though he formally surrendered that this February, and thus robotically recovered his authentic citizenship, this was too late for inclusion on this 12 months's register of eligible voters or candidates.

Tidjane Thiam advised the BBC: "The underside line is, I used to be born an Ivorian"

In useless, his attorneys had argued that, by his father, Thiam had French nationality from beginning - which, if accepted, would exempt him from the twin nationality ban.

In search of to spotlight the absurdity and inconsistencies of the scenario, he argued that, logically, the nation ought to now hand again its prized 2024 Africa Cup of Nations soccer title as a result of lots of the gamers even have French nationality.

"If we apply the legislation the best way [that] they only utilized it to me, we've got to provide the cup again to Nigeria - as a result of half of the workforce was not Ivorian," he advised the BBC.

And Thursday might deliver one more setback in a scheduled court docket listening to the place a choose could now rule that Thiam can not, as a non-national, lead the PDCI.

The previous two weeks have seen persevering with political and authorized debate over this entire saga, with the Thiam camp hoping {that a} mixture of widespread stress and discreet political negotiation will result in a compromise that lets him again into the presidential race, maybe together with the opposite excluded contenders.

And Ouattara, ought to he selected to not run, may wish to safeguard his spectacular observe report and safe his worldwide popularity by intervening with some type of deal that permits Thiam to run.

With months to go earlier than the polls, there may be nonetheless time for that. However no-one is relying on it.

Paul Melly is a consulting fellow with the Africa Programme at Chatham Home in London.

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