Behind the Diplomatic Curtain: Kremlin Performs for Suspense as World Waits for Putin to Meet Zelensky

[ad_1] President Vladimir Putin has no intention of accepting Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky’s provide to fulfill one-on-one in Istanbul, sources within the Russian authorities and the International Ministry and folks near the Kremlin have instructed The Moscow Occasions.

With simply hours to go earlier than the primary direct contact between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in three years, the Kremlin’s secrecy surrounding Putin’s journey plans underscores Moscow’s reluctance.

Though sources mentioned Putin doesn't see Zelensky as his equal and can solely agree to fulfill him within the occasion of his "public capitulation,” he can not refuse the problem outright due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s requires the Russian chief to have interaction together with his opponent.

All of The Moscow Occasions’ sources spoke on situation of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Why the Kremlin is conserving Putin’s plans secret Zelensky threw down the gauntlet to Putin on Sunday, hours after the Russian chief ignored Ukraine’s Western-backed name for a 30-day ceasefire and as an alternative proposed renewing direct talks with Kyiv in Istanbul.

With lower than 24 hours till Thursday’s talks, Moscow has nonetheless not confirmed who will signify Russia on the negotiating desk.

On Wednesday, Putin’s international coverage aide Yury Ushakov mentioned the Russian delegation plans to debate political and technical points.

This silence is a deliberate tactic designed to maintain Kyiv and its allies on edge and permit for a last-minute change of plans, former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev instructed The Moscow Occasions.

information Why Does Putin Suddenly Want Direct Peace Talks With Ukraine? Read more

Russian diplomacy largely follows the identical protocols it did within the Soviet period, with all high-level talks meticulously ready upfront.

Consequently, spontaneous negotiations on the opponent’s phrases — particularly when Russia ought to maintain the higher hand — are out of the query, a authorities official, a present diplomat and a Kremlin insider instructed The Moscow Occasions.

“This isn't how we do issues. First, appointed negotiators do all of the groundwork and put together the paperwork. Solely then does the president step in to debate phrases agreed upfront,” mentioned one supply.

“Our chief doesn’t like being pressured. That’s a widely known reality,” added a former senior Kremlin official.

Furthermore, Moscow doesn't acknowledge Zelensky as a legit negotiating accomplice.

Russian propaganda and Putin himself have declared Zelensky to be illegitimate, which means Moscow can solely signal a peace cope with a brand new Ukrainian president or with the management of Ukraine’s parliament.

information ‘Hey, Comrade Putin, Just Go’: Brazil’s Lula Urges Kremlin Leader to Join Istanbul Talks Read more

Russia has repeatedly tried to discredit the Ukrainian chief due to Zelensky’s defiance within the face of Russia’s invasion, which is a selected irritant for Moscow, as The Moscow Occasions has beforehand reported .

Whereas Zelensky’s time period technically expired in 2024, Ukraine can not maintain presidential elections underneath martial regulation, which it imposed on account of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

“Zelensky is simply appropriate for signing a capitulation. Interval,” a present Russian diplomat mentioned.

The Trump roadblock The principle impediment stopping Putin from publicly rebuking Zelensky seems to be Trump, who has urged Moscow to pursue a ceasefire and has hinted he might journey to Turkey himself if Putin attends.

“Our assertion on resuming talks in Istanbul by no means talked about our president’s participation. For the previous a number of weeks, we’ve been in intensive communication with Washington, and in latest days it has reached a fever pitch. My colleagues are looking for a compromise that gained’t offend Trump,” a Kremlin-connected official mentioned.

“If Trump had been to personally invite Putin, that might change every little thing. However Zelensky isn't Putin’s equal, and he doesn’t need to discuss to him face-to-face. After Zelensky’s ultimatums, agreeing to fulfill would appear to be backing down and shedding face,” mentioned Bondarev.

Nonetheless, he famous {that a} Putin go to to Istanbul, whereas unlikely, can't be dominated out.

A sport of nerves and optics The Kremlin is weighing a number of choices because it drags out the suspense over whether or not Putin will attend.

The primary would see Putin fly to Turkey — however to not meet Zelensky.

As a result of Putin “tries to not acknowledge Zelensky in any respect and sees him merely as a Washington’s proxy,” he would search to carry a short summit with Trump in Istanbul as an alternative, in accordance with a present Russian authorities official.

Former Kremlin staffer turned analyst Alexei Chesnakov voiced the same view, saying this technique would permit Putin to display management and tactical flexibility.

If Putin seems, Chesnakov mentioned, it could ship a robust sign of direct dialogue with the U.S. amid Washington’s wider rapprochement with Moscow. Trump, he added, is keen to rearrange his schedule to fulfill Putin, making the occasion important by default.

“On this occasion, Zelensky loses the initiative. He'll come off as hysterical and unreliable compared to a composed Putin,” Chesnakov argued.

information What Prospects Are There for Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul? Read more

Ought to Putin skip the journey altogether, Zelensky can be left empty-handed, “wanting like an errand boy,” Chesnakov mentioned.

“Russia has sturdy arguments to justify Putin not going. Leaders solely meet when there's a clear agenda and pre-agreed selections. Putin’s private involvement stays a card up his sleeve that may be performed to safe higher situations later,” Chesnakov mentioned.

What does Putin actually need? Putin’s main aim is to persuade Trump that Russia is genuinely inquisitive about peace, which is why he proposed sending a delegation to Istanbul and resuming talks from the place they left off in 2022, explained Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Heart in Berlin.

“The Kremlin is making an attempt to get Trump both to dealer a positive deal for Moscow or to conclude that peace is unattainable and blame Kyiv and its European allies. That means, the struggle in Ukraine would not be a U.S. precedence. It will simply be one other file in Washington’s relationship with Moscow,” Gabuev mentioned.

The issue is that Putin has not deserted his maximalist calls for for the struggle. He nonetheless needs to consolidate Russia’s territorial beneficial properties, set off regime change in Kyiv and considerably scale back the scale of Ukraine’s navy.

These targets are unacceptable to Washington and to Trump himself.

“That is the place Putin’s technique falls aside. He's not getting what he wants from Trump to realize his home targets. And if diplomacy fails, he'll attempt to get it on the battlefield,” Gabuev concluded.

What might in the end sink any likelihood of U.S.-Russia rapprochement, former diplomat Bondarev mentioned, is the deeper structural battle between the 2 nations as world powers.

“Extra particularly, the pure confrontation between Putin’s regime and America’s international pursuits. Putin sees this clearly, even when U.S. rhetoric tries to disregard it,” Bondarev mentioned. “So what sort of rapprochement can we even speak about? The one acceptable end result for Putin is Trump’s capitulation and America’s retreat right into a regional energy.”

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