Polish voters set for tight presidential race after 10 years of Duda

[ad_1] Adam Easton BBC Warsaw correspondent

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/c3fc/live/47cd6690-323e-11f0-99e4-1f881fd90e09.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/c3fc/live/47cd6690-323e-11f0-99e4-1f881fd90e09.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c3fc/live/47cd6690-323e-11f0-99e4-1f881fd90e09.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/c3fc/live/47cd6690-323e-11f0-99e4-1f881fd90e09.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/c3fc/live/47cd6690-323e-11f0-99e4-1f881fd90e09.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/c3fc/live/47cd6690-323e-11f0-99e4-1f881fd90e09.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/c3fc/live/47cd6690-323e-11f0-99e4-1f881fd90e09.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c3fc/live/47cd6690-323e-11f0-99e4-1f881fd90e09.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="WOJTEK RADWANSKI/AFP Supporters of Warsaw's mayor and member of Poland's ruling Civic Coalition party Rafal Trzaskowski (R), observe their candidate during the discussion with his main opponent Karol Nawrocki (L)," class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> WOJTEK RADWANSKI/AFP There are two front-runners among the many 13 candidates: Rafal Trzaskowski (R) and Karol Nawrocki

When Poles vote for a brand new president on Sunday, they're anticipated to arrange a second spherical run-off between Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and national-conservative historian Karol Nawrocki.

If opinion polls are appropriate, that will imply a 1 June contest between candidates backed by the 2 events which have dominated Polish politics for the previous twenty years, a domination some voters say they're fed up with.

Trzaskowski, the present front-runner, is deputy chief of prime minister Donald Tusk's centre-right Civic Platform (PO).

Nawrocki, at present polling between 4%-6% behind, is supported by the Legislation and Justice (PiS) opposition social gathering that misplaced energy 18 months in the past.

Poland's president has the facility to veto authorities payments, so what occurs on this election is important.

Tusk's coalition doesn't have a sufficiently big parliamentary majority to overturn that veto, which outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a former PiS member and ally, has used on a number of events.

That barrier might now fall as Duda can not run once more after serving two consecutive five-year phrases.

Observers outdoors Poland portrayed Tusk's election as prime minister in late 2023 as saving liberal democracy after eight years of right-wing authoritarian populism by the PiS-led authorities.

Critics extensively accused PiS of turning public media into crude propaganda for its conservative Catholic worldview, politicising the civil service and judiciary and punishing judges who dared to oppose the reform.

However Tusk's coalition authorities has additionally used questionable authorized strategies to wrestle again management of the general public media.

Tusk has suspended the precise for migrants arriving on the border with Belarus to use for asylum and didn't ship lots of his marketing campaign guarantees resembling liberalising the nation's strict abortion regulation.

"This isn't the triumph of liberal values. It is a selection between a silly and authoritarian right-wing populism and a hypocritical, and in my eyes, morally corrupt liberal populism," Konstanty Gebert, a columnist for Kultura Liberalna informed the BBC.

The presidential election may very well be gained in Sunday's first spherical with greater than 50% of the vote, however newest opinion polls counsel it is going to be selected 1 June.

Miroslaw Kaznowski, a member of the Inexperienced social gathering that belongs to Tusk's broader Civic Coalition, will vote for Trzaskowski, regardless of some reservations.

He informed the BBC: "I'm upset the coalition authorities is pandering to the right-wing citizens as an alternative of standing up for its values."

In one of many presidential debates, the PiS-backed candidate Nawrocki, proudly brandishing a mini Polish flag, tried to embarrass Trzaskowski by handing him a small rainbow flag.

Previously, the Warsaw mayor has been a vocal supporter of LGBTQ+ rights and attended equality marches within the capital.

Trzaskowski took the flag and put it on the ground, inflicting left-wing candidate Magdalena Biejat to stroll over, saying "I am not ashamed of it, I am going to gladly take it from you".

Kaznowski stated: "Migration, LGBT+, ladies's rights and the setting have fallen off the agenda, however we're nonetheless on the danger of falling again to an authoritarian authorities that aspires to Japanese values."

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/a68f/live/d38e3cf0-3242-11f0-9702-032be3c1f222.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/a68f/live/d38e3cf0-3242-11f0-9702-032be3c1f222.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/a68f/live/d38e3cf0-3242-11f0-9702-032be3c1f222.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/a68f/live/d38e3cf0-3242-11f0-9702-032be3c1f222.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/a68f/live/d38e3cf0-3242-11f0-9702-032be3c1f222.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/a68f/live/d38e3cf0-3242-11f0-9702-032be3c1f222.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/a68f/live/d38e3cf0-3242-11f0-9702-032be3c1f222.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/a68f/live/d38e3cf0-3242-11f0-9702-032be3c1f222.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images A man in a suit stands in front of a lectern with the Polish emblem and a khaki-coloured military vehicle" class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> Getty Pictures Donald Tusk has been unable to ship on most of the reforms he promised earlier than he turned prime minister

Tusk promised Polish ladies authorized abortion as much as the twelfth week of being pregnant, however he has not delivered on his promise.

He presides over a broad coalition constructed round his personal centre-right grouping that additionally consists of smaller left-wing and conservative events.

Disagreements inside the coalition over abortion and legalising identical intercourse partnerships stalled even earlier than President Duda had the possibility to veto them.

Following Russia's conflict in neighbouring Ukraine, state safety has dominated political discourse.

International Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated "outflanking" PiS on safety, together with a tricky migration coverage, was key to profitable the 2023 election.

Hours earlier than campaigning got here to an finish on Friday, Tusk accused a gaggle of Russian hackers of attacking web sites belonging to events within the authorities. Tusk's Civic Platform web site was unavailable together with that of a smaller agrarian conservative associate, the Polish Individuals's Occasion.

This 12 months, Poland is planning to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defence, a bigger proportion than some other Nato member.

Tusk desires to supply all grownup males the possibility to do navy coaching. Trzaskowski was photographed going by means of primary drills throughout the marketing campaign.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/88d1/live/1cae54b0-3243-11f0-9f11-ad778c3a662b.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/88d1/live/1cae54b0-3243-11f0-9f11-ad778c3a662b.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/88d1/live/1cae54b0-3243-11f0-9f11-ad778c3a662b.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/88d1/live/1cae54b0-3243-11f0-9f11-ad778c3a662b.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/88d1/live/1cae54b0-3243-11f0-9f11-ad778c3a662b.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/88d1/live/1cae54b0-3243-11f0-9f11-ad778c3a662b.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/88d1/live/1cae54b0-3243-11f0-9f11-ad778c3a662b.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/88d1/live/1cae54b0-3243-11f0-9f11-ad778c3a662b.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images A woman walks past a fence and a campaign banner for Karol Nawrocki" class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> Getty Pictures Karol Nawrocki has to date been largely undamaged by claims surrounding his buy of a flat from a pensioner in unhealthy well being

The liberal mayor's robust messages on safety and migration led PiS to accuse him of claiming something to win votes.

It is a view shared by civil servant Wojciech Karlik, who plans to vote for the PiS-backed candidate, Nawrocki.

"Nawrocki will struggle for Poland's pursuits within the EU. He is dependable not like Trzaskowski who retains altering his thoughts on points like migration," he stated.

Nawrocki has come below hearth just lately over accusations, which he denies, that he purchased a council flat from a senior citizen sick at a 90% low cost to the market value in return for guarantees of help and care.

By his workforce's personal admission, Nawrocki was shocked when he misplaced contact with the pensioner final December. Native media reported the person had been residing in a nursing dwelling paid for by taxpayers for six months by that stage.

Following an uproar, Nawrocki stated he would donate the flat to charity. Opinion polls counsel the accusations haven't broken Nawrocki's probabilities to date.

However the numbers point out not one of the 13 candidates will win enough votes to keep away from a run-off between the 2 front-runners.

PiS, led by 75-year-old Jaroslaw Kaczynski, and Tusk's PO are the 2 events which have dominated Polish politics for the final 20 years and a few voters are fed up with the duopoly.

In March, 38-year-old far-right libertarian candidate and brewing entrepreneur Slawomir Mentzen, who attracted voters, particularly younger males, along with his anti-migrant and tax-cutting talks throughout his "Beer with Mentzen" conferences in small cities and cities, appeared near overtaking Nawrocki into second place.

However his help has dropped since he gave an interview calling for the introduction of pupil tuition charges and a ban on abortion even in instances of rape.

Aleksandra Januszewicz, a psychotherapist, informed the BBC: "I am fed up with the stranglehold of PO and PiS. The politics I am seeing is usually a type of populism that performs to voters' feelings.

"I am not determined but [on who to vote for], however I'll throw up afterwards."

Human rights lawyer Malgorzata Szuleka agrees there may be fatigue, each with the duopoly and Tusk authorities's failure to ship.

"Polish politics appears to be like just a little bit like going to McDonalds," she informed the BBC. "You go in hoping for one thing else and you permit with a burger and fries.