Hectic two weeks leaves Russia assured

[ad_1] Steve Rosenberg Russia editor

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/d2d0/live/4edc94d0-37e6-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/d2d0/live/4edc94d0-37e6-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/d2d0/live/4edc94d0-37e6-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/d2d0/live/4edc94d0-37e6-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/d2d0/live/4edc94d0-37e6-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/d2d0/live/4edc94d0-37e6-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/d2d0/live/4edc94d0-37e6-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/d2d0/live/4edc94d0-37e6-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="PAVEL BEDNYAKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Vladimir Putin sitting in a gold chair, hands clasped and looking down. The Russian flag is draped behind him." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> PAVEL BEDNYAKOV/POOL/AFP by way of Getty It is 2:30am.

Contained in the Kremlin partitions I am wandering alone by way of the huge grounds making an attempt - and failing - to search out my approach out.

I spot a checkpoint, method and present my passport.

"Nyet vykhoda!" ["No exit!"] replies the guard. He factors in the other way.

I stroll again and, ultimately, come to a different checkpoint.

"No approach out!" says the sentry.

I am misplaced. Contained in the Kremlin. In the dark.

It is like being in a John le Carré novel.

It has been fairly a night. I arrived at 5pm. Together with a small group of journalists, I might been invited to "an occasion with President Putin". What sort of occasion? To start with the Kremlin would not say. Finally we have been instructed Vladimir Putin can be taking questions.

Eight hours later, the president strode into the Malachite Corridor of the Grand Kremlin Palace and sat at a desk.

However there'd been a change of plan. No press convention. No questions. As a substitute, stay on Russian TV, Putin delivered an announcement by which he proposed direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.

Occasion over, I stroll out of the Kremlin Palace however take a flawed flip. Lastly, I find the right exit and, bleary-eyed, take a taxi dwelling.

This was the beginning of what has turned out to be an actual rollercoaster of a fortnight. What started with a late-night Kremlin assertion continued with peace talks in Turkey after which a two-hour phone name between Putin and Donald Trump.

However, on the finish of it, are we any nearer to peace in Ukraine?

It would not really feel prefer it.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/118a/live/2bd58800-37e8-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/118a/live/2bd58800-37e8-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/118a/live/2bd58800-37e8-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/118a/live/2bd58800-37e8-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/118a/live/2bd58800-37e8-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/118a/live/2bd58800-37e8-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/118a/live/2bd58800-37e8-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/118a/live/2bd58800-37e8-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump sitting together in 2019. Their country's flags are draped behind them, and Trump is gesturing with his hand while Putin smiles." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Photos Trump has, prior to now, referenced his "very shut relationship" with Putin, however extra just lately puzzled if he's "simply tapping me alongside" on peace talks

Though there may be speak about extra talks, and of а potential future "memorandum" on a "potential future peace", all of it sounds relatively obscure.

For now, the preventing goes on.

Russia remains to be refusing to enroll to an unconditional complete ceasefire. It has no intention of returning any of the Ukrainian land it has seized, occupied and claims to have annexed. Quite the opposite: it is pushing for extra.

Proper now, the Ukraine peace course of resembles being misplaced within the Kremlin late at night time.

It is laborious to see the exit.

The Kremlin side-step

And but the previous two weeks have revealed loads.

First, how Russia neutralises potential threats and strain factors.

Kremlin critics would put this one other approach: how Russia performs for time.

On 10 Could (a couple of hours earlier than I acquired misplaced within the Kremlin), after a telephone name with Donald Trump, European leaders had issued an ultimatum to President Putin: comply with an unconditional long-term ceasefire in Ukraine in two days or face crushing new sanctions.

Since March the Trump administration has been calling on Russia and Ukraine to just accept a 30-day complete ceasefire. Kyiv agreed. Moscow hasn't.

The Kremlin chief sidestepped the European ultimatum together with his counter proposal of direct talks in Turkey. The thought was greeted with scepticism in Ukraine and throughout Europe. But it surely was sufficient to placate Trump and persuade him Russia was severe about wanting peace. He was all for the talks. "Crushing" new sanctions have been delayed.

Forward of the Istanbul assembly on 16 Could, President Trump seemed that Vladimir Putin may attend. The Kremlin chief didn't, sending as a substitute a relatively low-level delegation that after extra rejected the thought of a long-term ceasefire. However, once more, the modest outcomes of the talks have been enough to influence the US president that progress was being made.

Then got here the Trump-Putin telephone name on 19 Could.

By the tip of it, Russia had nonetheless not agreed to an instantaneous complete cessation of hostilities. As a substitute, based on President Trump, "Russia and Ukraine will instantly begin negotiations towards a ceasefire and, extra importantly, an END to the Warfare".

However Moscow is already casting doubt on whether or not it might signal any future peace treaty with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. For a 12 months now the Russian authorities have been trying to delegitimise Ukraine's president for the reason that expiry of his presidential time period. Nonetheless, Ukraine's Structure prohibits the holding of elections in wartime.

And the rationale for martial regulation in Ukraine is Russia's invasion.

"Would Russia sit down and signal a peace settlement with President Zelensky?" I requested Russia's international minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday.

"You are placing the cart earlier than the horse," Mr Lavrov replied. "First we have to have a deal. When it is agreed, then we'll determine. However, as President Putin has mentioned many instances, President Zelensky doesn't have legitimacy… Most likely the most suitable choice can be new elections…"

Watch: Steve Rosenberg asks Sergei Lavrov: Is Russia able to signal cope with Zelensky?

Assured Russia

The Russian media has concluded that, after two weeks of diplomacy, Moscow has strengthened its hand.

"Russia has gained the most recent spherical of worldwide poker," declared the Izvestia newspaper final week.

"Donald Trump's stance could not be extra advantageous to Moscow," wrote Kommersant. "In impact he backed Russia's place of 'Talks first, ceasefire later' and refused to strengthen sanctions towards Russia."

A social scientist instructed Kommersant: "Donald Trump, a minimum of for now, is our ideological accomplice on sure points. His views are a lot nearer to Russia's than to Europe's."

And the extremely pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda had this message for European leaders:

"You have been warned. Do not wave threats and ultimatums within the face of the bear. Do not attempt to impose circumstances in talks that don't have anything to do with you.

"Simply sit within the foyer and breathe within the scent of the brand new world order."

Moscow's confidence can also be fuelled by the assumption that, in Ukraine, it holds the initiative on the battlefield.

Reluctant Trump

Again in 2023 Donald Trump had promised that, if he gained the presidency, "we can have the horrible conflict between Russia and Ukraine settled… I am going to get them each. I do know Zelensky, I do know Putin. It's going to be achieved inside 24 hours, you watch".

Trump has been within the Oval Workplace for greater than 4 months now, however the "horrible conflict" goes on.

On uncommon events, he has publicly rebuked the Kremlin and threatened additional sanctions. Final month he mentioned: "…there was no motive for Putin to be capturing missiles into civilian areas, cities and cities, over the previous couple of days. It makes me assume that perhaps he would not wish to cease the conflict, he is simply tapping me alongside, and needs to be handled otherwise, by way of 'Banking' or 'Secondary Sanctions?'"

However there's been no follow-through. The US president seems reluctant to ratchet up the strain on the Kremlin, as a substitute signalling to Moscow that he is eager to reboot US-Russia relations.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/f9ff/live/04b1d190-37eb-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/f9ff/live/04b1d190-37eb-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f9ff/live/04b1d190-37eb-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/f9ff/live/04b1d190-37eb-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/f9ff/live/04b1d190-37eb-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/f9ff/live/04b1d190-37eb-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/f9ff/live/04b1d190-37eb-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f9ff/live/04b1d190-37eb-11f0-89be-1318f07bc92e.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Office of the President of Ukraine via Getty Images Zelensky meets with Trump during Pope Francis's funeral at the Vatican on April 26 2025" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Workplace of the President of Ukraine by way of Getty Photos Trump and Zelensky spoke face-to-face on the sideline of Pope Francis's funeral on the Vatican in April

Following the presidents' phone dialog, Putin's international coverage advisor Yuri Ushakov, who'd sat in on the decision, instructed journalists: "Trump spoke relatively emotionally concerning the prospects for [bilateral] relations. Trump sees Russia as certainly one of America's most essential companions in commerce and financial issues."

President Trump appears decided to push on together with his rapprochement with Russia, no matter occurs on Ukraine.

And Moscow senses that.

"President Trump doesn't hyperlink continued US-Russia dialogue to the Ukraine peace course of," was a headline within the Russian authorities paper Rossiyskaya Gazeta this week.

That does not imply the Kremlin has headed off the hazard of further restrictions fully. The US Senate has threatened powerful new sanctions towards Russia if Moscow would not get severe about diplomacy.

Up up to now the Kremlin has been capable of deflect or to sidestep no matter strain it is come underneath to make compromises and concessions relating to its conflict on Ukraine.