Thunder vs. Pacers Predictions, Picks: Again OKC To Begin Quick In Recreation 7

Recreation 7. Two of the perfect phrases in sports activities.

This will likely be very true when the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder take the courtroom on Sunday for the ultimate sport of the 2025 NBA Finals.

Dillon Jones of the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder and Obi Toppin of the Indiana Pacers battle for a rebound through the fourth quarter in Recreation 6

The Pacers dominated Recreation 6, tied the sequence after which compelled a Recreation 7. 

OKC now has the chance to bounce again from a poor efficiency. However the Thunder will want guys to step up. 

After the season-saving Recreation 6 win for Indiana, each groups have an opportunity to clinch their first championship on Sunday.

With that in thoughts, I see 4 wagers which have worth proper now. 

Let’s dive into it.

Thunder first quarter

My favourite wager to make within the postseason is to take a crew coming off a loss to cowl the primary quarter within the subsequent sport when they’re taking part in at house. 

It’s an excellent higher wager with a crew like Oklahoma Metropolis, which is unbelievable at house. 

The Thunder have received and lined the primary quarter in all three house video games of this sequence. In addition they received and lined 4 of the primary six quarters following a loss. This final loss was gnarly. It marked the worst offensive efficiency by the Thunder this season. 

They shot simply 26% from three-point vary, with most of their makes coming throughout rubbish time. That they had 21 turnovers and have been out-rebounded. 

On condition that poor efficiency, it’s widespread for groups to play higher of their subsequent sport at house. I anticipate the Thunder to begin quick on Sunday evening.

PICK: Thunder (-3.5) first quarter

My participant props for Recreation 7 are all zigzag props. The idea includes betting the other aspect of a participant prop following both an terrible evening or one which’s been too good. 

For instance, in Recreation 6, Aaron Wiggins was the proper fade alternative. At house in Recreation 5, he scored 14 factors, however in Recreation 6, he went Below 5.5 factors. 

Preserving this in thoughts, listed here are my participant prop picks for Recreation 7.

Alex Caruso Over 8.5 Factors

Caruso performed 22 minutes in Recreation 6 and didn’t rating a single level. 

He solely tried two photographs, the least variety of photographs he’s taken in a sport since logging 12 minutes in Recreation 1 in opposition to the Grizzlies. Caruso has scored simply two factors within the final two video games whereas taking part in 51 minutes. There have been cases this postseason the place he has fewer factors than typical in two straight video games, solely to observe that up by scoring over 8.5 factors. 

He scored 10 factors in Recreation 4 in opposition to the Nuggets after simply 9 within the earlier two video games and reached 10 factors in opposition to the Wolves in Recreation 4 after solely scoring 12 within the final two video games.

Caruso may see extra taking part in time as effectively. The Thunder have been tweaking their lineups, and he is a part of essentially the most optimum lineup. He’ll get the prospect to surpass 8.5 factors.

PICK: Alex Caruso Over 8.5 factors

Alex Caruso handles the ball in opposition to the Indiana Pacers through the third quarter in Recreation 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals 

Jalen Williams Over 9.5 rebounds and assists

Like the remainder of his crew, Jalen Williams had an off evening in Recreation 6, however he had been tremendous dependable within the earlier 5 video games of this sequence. 

He’s recorded not less than 10 rebounds and assists in 4 of these 5 video games. Trying again to the prior two sequence, he’s exceeded 9.5 rebounds and assists in six of the final eight video games. Additional, he’s managed not less than 10 rebounds and assists in 4 of the six video games following a Thunder loss. 

Williams has taken extra management of the Thunder’s offense in latest video games, particularly because the Pacers preserve hounding SGA within the backcourt. Following a sport the place the Thunder didn’t shoot effectively or cross a lot, I anticipate Williams to generate extra assists. 

He’s usually across the basket resulting from who he’s guarding, so rebounds must be extra inside his attain. I like him Over right here.

PICK: Jalen Williams Over 9.5 rebounds and assists

Obi Toppin Below 10.5 factors

It’s powerful to fade somebody who’s sizzling, however that is the spot to do it. 

Toppin has scored 17, 12 and 20 factors in his final three video games — which is essentially the most factors he’s scored in a three-game stretch this postseason. He’s been a shiny spot for the Pacers on the middle place, particularly with Myles Turner struggling the final three video games.

Can Toppin do it once more? 4 straight video games, plus a Recreation 7 on the highway? These aren’t the video games the place function gamers sometimes shine.

PICK: Obi Toppin Below 10.5 factors

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior yr. Comply with him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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