When the Supreme Chief emerges, he'll be main a modified Iran

[ad_1] <img sizes="96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/a29a/live/9f1460e0-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/a29a/live/9f1460e0-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/a29a/live/9f1460e0-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/a29a/live/9f1460e0-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/a29a/live/9f1460e0-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/a29a/live/9f1460e0-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/a29a/live/9f1460e0-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/a29a/live/9f1460e0-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Kasra Naji profile image" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Kasra Naji Particular Correspondent, BBC Persian

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/5f81/live/335ba070-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/5f81/live/335ba070-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5f81/live/335ba070-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/5f81/live/335ba070-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/5f81/live/335ba070-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/5f81/live/335ba070-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/5f81/live/335ba070-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5f81/live/335ba070-51c7-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp" loading="eager" alt="BBC Treated topper image of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> BBC After spending practically two weeks in a secret bunker someplace in Iran throughout his nation's conflict with Israel, the supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, would possibly need to use the chance of the ceasefire to enterprise out.

He's believed to be holed up, incommunicado, for the worry of being assassinated by Israel. Even prime authorities officers apparently have had no contact with him.

He can be nicely suggested to be cautious, regardless of the delicate ceasefire that the US President Donald Trump and the Emir of Qatar brokered. Although President Trump reportedly advised Israel to not kill Iran's supreme chief, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn't rule it out.

When – or certainly if – he does emerge from hiding, he'll see a panorama of dying and destruction. He'll little doubt nonetheless seem on state TV claiming victory within the battle. He'll plot to revive his picture. However he'll face new realities – even a brand new period.

The conflict has left the nation considerably weakened and him a diminished man.

Murmurs of dissent on the prime

Throughout the conflict, Israel rapidly took management of a lot of Iran's airspace, and attacked its army infrastructure. High commanders of the Revolutionary Guard and the military have been swiftly killed.

The extent of the injury to the army continues to be unclear and disputed, however the repeated bombings of the military and revolutionary guard bases and installations suggests substantial degradation of Iran's army energy. Militarisation had lengthy consumed an enormous quantity of the nation's assets.

Iran's recognized nuclear amenities that earned the nation practically twenty years of US and worldwide sanctions, with an estimated price of lots of of billions of {dollars}, are actually broken from the air strikes, though the total extent of this has been laborious to evaluate. What was all of it for, many are asking.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/0268/live/f3606280-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0268/live/f3606280-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0268/live/f3606280-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/0268/live/f3606280-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/0268/live/f3606280-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/0268/live/f3606280-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/0268/live/f3606280-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0268/live/f3606280-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on 15 June 2025 in Tehran, Iran." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Getty Pictures The conflict has left Iran considerably weakened

An enormous variety of Iranians will singularly maintain Ayatollah Khamenei, who first grew to become chief in 1989, liable for setting Iran on a collision course with Israel and the US that finally introduced appreciable destroy to his nation and other people.

They may blame him for pursuing the ideological intention of destruction of Israel – one thing many Iranians do not assist. They may blame him for what they understand as a folly – his perception that attaining nuclear standing would render his regime invincible. Sanctions have crippled the Iranian financial system, decreasing a prime oil exporter to a poor and struggling shadow of its former self.

"It's tough to estimate how for much longer the Iranian regime can survive beneath such important pressure, however this seems to be like the start of the tip," says Professor Lina Khatib, a visiting scholar at Harvard College.

"Ali Khamenei is more likely to grow to be the Islamic Republic's final 'Supreme Chief' within the full sense of the phrase."

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/2043/live/1525f930-51c6-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/2043/live/1525f930-51c6-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/2043/live/1525f930-51c6-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/2043/live/1525f930-51c6-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/2043/live/1525f930-51c6-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/2043/live/1525f930-51c6-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/2043/live/1525f930-51c6-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/2043/live/1525f930-51c6-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Iranian President Ali Khameneyi during a welcoming ceremony for his state visit to Beijing, China, on 11 May 1989." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Getty Pictures Ayatollah Khamenei, who grew to become chief in 1989, has been accused of setting Iran on a collision course with Israel

There have been murmurs of dissent on the prime. On the peak of the conflict, one semi-official Iranian information company reported that some prime former regime figures have been urging the nation's extra quiet non secular students based mostly within the holy metropolis of Qom, who're separate to the ayatollah, to intervene and convey a couple of change in management.

"There can be a reckoning," in response to Professor Ali Ansari, the founding director of the Institute of Iranian Research on the College of St Andrews.

"It is fairly clear that there are enormous disagreements throughout the management, and there is additionally enormous unhappiness amongst unusual individuals."

'Anger and frustration will take root'

Over the past two weeks, many Iranians wrestled with conflicted emotions of the necessity to defend their nation versus their deep hatred of the regime. They rallied for the nation, not by popping out to defend the regime, however to take care of one another. There have been stories of huge solidarity and closeness.

Individuals in cities and villages exterior city areas opened their doorways to those that had fled the bombardments of their cities, shopkeepers undercharged fundamental items, neighbours knocked on one another's doorways to ask in the event that they wanted something.

However many individuals have been additionally conscious that Israel was in all probability on the lookout for a regime change in Iran. A regime change is what many Iranians want for. They could draw the road on a regime change engineered and imposed by international powers, nevertheless.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/c16e/live/c043d210-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/c16e/live/c043d210-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c16e/live/c043d210-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/c16e/live/c043d210-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/c16e/live/c043d210-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/c16e/live/c043d210-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/c16e/live/c043d210-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c16e/live/c043d210-51c6-11f0-b4be-8f7caf53b80c.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Demonstrators take part in anti-Israel and anti-US demonstrations in Tehran, Iran, on 14 June 2025." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Getty Pictures Many Iranians could draw the road on a regime change engineered by international powers

In his practically 40 years of his rule, Ayatollah Khamenei, one of many world's longest reigning autocrats, has decimated any opposition within the nation. Opposition political leaders are both in jail or have fled the nation. Overseas, the opposition figures have been unable to formulate a stance that unites the opposition to the regime.

They've been ineffectual within the institution of any semblance of an organisation in a position to take over contained in the nation if the chance arises.

And through the two weeks of conflict, when the collapse of the regime might have been a risk, if the conflict went on relentlessly, many believed the doubtless state of affairs for the day after was not the takeover by the opposition, however the descent of the nation into chaos and lawlessness.

"It's unlikely that the Iranian regime can be toppled by home opposition. The regime stays robust at house and can ramp up home oppression to crush dissent," says Prof Khatib.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/8bf3/live/8fadbae0-51c5-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/8bf3/live/8fadbae0-51c5-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8bf3/live/8fadbae0-51c5-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/8bf3/live/8fadbae0-51c5-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/8bf3/live/8fadbae0-51c5-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/8bf3/live/8fadbae0-51c5-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/8bf3/live/8fadbae0-51c5-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8bf3/live/8fadbae0-51c5-11f0-a2ff-17a82c2e8bc4.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Members of the Iranian Army honour guard stand guard in front of a portrait of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a ceremony in southern Tehran, on 1 February 2024." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Getty Pictures Few individuals in Iran suppose that the ceasefire brokered on Monday will final

Iranians are actually fearing additional clampdown by the regime. At the very least six individuals have been executed prior to now two weeks because the begin of the conflict with Israel on expenses of spying for Israel. Authorities say they've arrested some 700 individuals on this cost.

One Iranian lady advised BBC Persian what she fears greater than the dying and destruction of the conflict is a regime that's wounded and humiliated turning its anger in opposition to its personal individuals.

"If the regime is unable to produce fundamental items and providers, then there can be rising anger and frustration," says Prof Ansari.

"I see it as a staged course of. I do not see it as one thing that, essentially, in a well-liked sense, will take root till lengthy after the bombing is over."

Few individuals in Iran suppose that the ceasefire brokered on Monday will final – and plenty of imagine Israel will not be but completed now that it has complete superiority within the sky over Iran.

Iran's ballistic missile silos

One factor that appears to have escaped the destruction are Iran's ballistic missile silos that Israel discovered laborious to find as they're positioned in tunnels beneath mountains all through the nation.

The Israeli Protection Forces Chief of Workers, Eyal Zamir, mentioned Israel launched its opening assault on Iran understanding that "Iran possessed round 2,500 surface-to-surface missiles". The missiles that Iran fired precipitated appreciable dying and destruction in Israel.

Israel can be involved in regards to the remaining doable 1,500 nonetheless within the arms of the Iranian aspect.

There may be additionally a severe concern in Tel Aviv, Washington and different Western and regional capitals that Iran should rush to construct a nuclear bomb, one thing it has continued to disclaim making an attempt to do.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/d1ab/live/49f8c520-51c6-11f0-8485-7bd50fa63665.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/d1ab/live/49f8c520-51c6-11f0-8485-7bd50fa63665.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/d1ab/live/49f8c520-51c6-11f0-8485-7bd50fa63665.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/d1ab/live/49f8c520-51c6-11f0-8485-7bd50fa63665.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/d1ab/live/49f8c520-51c6-11f0-8485-7bd50fa63665.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/d1ab/live/49f8c520-51c6-11f0-8485-7bd50fa63665.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/d1ab/live/49f8c520-51c6-11f0-8485-7bd50fa63665.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/d1ab/live/49f8c520-51c6-11f0-8485-7bd50fa63665.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Donald Trump speaks to reporters" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Getty Pictures President Trump reportedly advised Israel to not kill Iran's supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Though Iran's nuclear amenities have nearly actually been set again, and probably rendered ineffective through the bombings by Israel and the US, Iran mentioned it had moved its stockpile of extremely enriched Uranium to a protected secret place.

That stockpile of 60% Uranium, if enriched to 90%, which is a comparatively straightforward step, is sufficient for about 9 bombs, in response to specialists. Simply earlier than the conflict began, Iran introduced that it had constructed one other new secret facility for enrichment that was as a result of come on stream quickly.

The Iranian parliament has voted to sharply cut back its cooperation with the UN's atomic watchdog, the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company (IAEA). This nonetheless requires approval, but when it passes Iran can be one step away from exiting the nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty, the NPT – as hardliners supporting the supreme chief push for Iran's breakout to construct a bomb.

Ayatollah Khamenei could now be assured that his regime has survived, simply. However on the age of 86 and ailing, he additionally is aware of that his personal days could also be numbered, and he could need to guarantee continuity of the regime with an orderly transition of energy – to a different senior cleric or perhaps a council of management.

In any case, the remaining prime commanders of the Revolutionary Guard who've been loyal to the supreme chief could also be in search of to wield energy from behind the scenes.

High picture credit score: Pacific Press through Getty

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