Iran Replace, June 30, 2025

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Avery Borens, Katherine Wells, Andie Parry, and Brian Carter

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

The Essential Threats Undertaking (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Examine of Battle (ISW) publish the Iran Replace, which gives insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored actions that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and pursuits. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Replace every day.

Click on here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed management of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli floor operations. The Syria map is up to date every day alongside the static Syria maps on this report. CTP-ISW ended every day maps of Israeli floor operations in February 2025.

Click on here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map displaying the entire strikes in Iran since June 12, in addition to an interactive timelapse displaying the strikes day-by-day.

US officers advised Western media that Iranian officers stated in intercepted communications that the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear program have been “much less devastating” than anticipated, which is inconsistent with earlier open-source reporting and the character of the strikes.[1] 4 unspecified US officers conversant in US intelligence stated that the intercepted communication included Iranian officers speculating as to why the US airstrikes weren't as damaging and intensive as they anticipated.[2] The Western media report didn't make clear what the Iranian officers ”anticipated,” which makes it difficult to grasp the relative diploma of injury Iran sustained because of the relative nature of the assertion. It's also unclear when the US intelligence group collected this intelligence, however separate Israeli intelligence urged that Iranian army officers have been giving false state of affairs stories and downplaying the extent of injury to Iran’s political management, nonetheless.[3] Alerts intelligence collected inside a day or two of the strike would presumably be much less dependable than intelligence collected every week or extra after the strike. It's unlikely that any Iranian officers might have executed an entire battle harm evaluation inside 48 hours as a result of doing so would require seeing the within of the ability, and all of the recognized entry factors had collapsed. The Institute for Science and Worldwide Safety additionally beforehand assessed that twelve 30,000lb bombs penetrated Fordow and generated a blast wave that might have destroyed the centrifuges enriching uranium at Fordow.[4] Even small vibrations can destroy centrifuges.

Key Takeaways

A high Iranian official solid doubt on the probability of US-Iran talks quickly. The official, who was beforehand concerned in negotiations, stated Iran “insist[s]” on enriching uranium. US officers advised Western media that Iranian officers stated in intercepted communications that the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear program have been “much less devastating” than anticipated, which is inconsistent with earlier open-source reporting and the character of the strikes. It's also unclear what the Iranian officers ”anticipated,” which makes it difficult to grasp the relative diploma of injury Iran sustained because of the relative nature of the assertion. A distinguished Iranian cleric issued a non secular ruling that states people who threaten Iranian management and spiritual authority are punishable by demise. This cleric beforehand met with a reformist former Iranian president, who tried to sideline the supreme chief a minimum of briefly, and the ruling could also be supposed to display loyalty to the supreme chief. Iranian Deputy International Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi solid doubt on the probability of US-Iran nuclear talks within the close to future. Ravanchi advised the BBC on June 30 that US leaders should decide to halt additional strikes on Iran earlier than talks can resume.[5] He didn't make clear whether or not “strikes” included each Israeli strikes and US strikes or solely US strikes. US President Donald Trump indicated on June 27 that america would reserve the choice to strike Iran once more if intelligence means that the Iranian nuclear program is able to enriching uranium to “regarding ranges.”[6] US President Donald Trump introduced on June 25 that america and Iran will meet ”subsequent week“ to debate a possible nuclear deal.[7] Ravanchi stated that Trump administration mediators advised Iran that america wished to restart negotiations this week, however that Iran had not agreed to a date or agenda for the longer term talks.[8] Neither aspect has modified its place on key points, together with Iranian uranium enrichment and Iran’s missile program. Western media reported that the US demand for zero uranium enrichment stays non-negotiable.[9] The administration reportedly stays open to negotiating on the removing of all of Iran’s extremely enriched uranium stockpile and limitations on future missile manufacturing.[10] Iran repeatedly rejected the US calls for for zero uranium enrichment and limits to its ballistic missile program previous to the battle, stating that its ballistic missile program and uranium enrichment on Iranian soil have been non-negotiable crimson strains.[11] Ravanchi stated that Iranian leaders haven't moved from their prior place and "insist" on enriching uranium.[12]

An Iranian official urged that Iran will permit Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company (IAEA) inspectors to remain in Iran regardless of suspending cooperation with the IAEA.[13] Iranian International Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed on June 30 that IAEA inspectors are nonetheless current in Iran, however that Iran couldn't but assure inspectors' security at nuclear websites given the current strikes on the Iranian nuclear program.[14] The IAEA beforehand confirmed on June 19 that its inspectors remained current in Iran and are ”able to be deployed at nuclear websites when potential.”[15] Iran has not modified its place on suspending cooperation with the IAEA, nonetheless. Baghaei accused the IAEA of ”errors” that had “penalties” and made “bilateral cooperation...irrational.”[16] Iran, as a celebration to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), should permit the IAEA to examine Iran’s amenities.[17] The IAEA impartially stories its findings. Iran’s Guardian Council authorized on June 26 a invoice that suspended cooperation with the IAEA, eradicated the group’s entry to Iran’s nuclear amenities, and barred inspectors from getting into the nation.[18] Iran additionally introduced on June 28 that it'll now not permit IAEA cameras in its nuclear amenities.[19] Baghaei’s affirmation means that Iran won't permit new inspectors into the nation however isn't forcing the current inspectors to depart Iran.

A distinguished Iranian cleric, Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi, issued a fatwa that states people who threaten Iranian management and spiritual authority are punishable by demise.[20] The fatwa declares these people “moharebeh” (enmity towards god), which is punishable by demise. The fatwa defines all people and governments who “assault” Iranian management to hurt the Islamic group as an enemy of God, or “mohareb.” It stays unclear if the fatwa refers to each bodily and rhetorical assaults. The Iranian Supreme Nationwide Safety Council introduced on June 16 that pro-Israel actions would face execution beneath prices of “moharebeh.”[21] These capital prices embody actions like legitimizing Israel’s picture and spreading rumors inciting anti-government sentiment. Judiciary Head Gholam Hossein Ejei additionally instructed the judiciary on June 15 to expedite trials and punishments for many who “cooperate and collude with adversaries.”[22] The Iranian clerical institution has beforehand weaponized the time period “mohareb” towards home dissidents, together with charging Mahsa Amini protesters with the demise penalty in 2022.[23]

Shirazi’s fatwa could also be a public rejection of former reformist President Hasan Rouhani’s reported discussions with Shirazi and others that sought to sideline Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei a minimum of briefly. Rouhani not too long ago met with Shirazi in Qom to encourage Shirazi to steer Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei to drop Iran’s demand for uranium enrichment on Iranian soil and settle for a ceasefire with Israel.[24] The fatwa may very well be supposed to help Khamanei’s ruling that Iran must retain uranium enrichment and reinforce Shirazi’s loyalty to Khamenei. Two different clerics who additionally met with Rouhani—Ayatollah Zanjani and Khorasani—notably didn't problem related fatwas or messages supporting Shirazi’s moharebeh fatwa, nonetheless. Different senior clerics, Ayatollah Noori Hamedani and Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi, additionally issued moharebeh fatwas on June 30 that echoed Shirazi‘s earlier moharebeh fatwa on June 29.[25] Hamedani and Arafi didn't meet with Rouhani.

Iranian Judiciary spokesperson individually introduced on June 30 that Iranian safety forces arrested an unspecified variety of European nationals in numerous Iranian provinces on allegations of collaborating with Israel.”[26]

A number of foreign money alternate places of work throughout Iran skilled “technical disruptions” on June 30, in line with an anti-regime outlet.[27] These disruptions observe pro-Israeli hacking group Predatory Sparrow’s current cyber-attack on Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-affiliated Sepah and Pasargad banks’ on-line banking companies and money machines, which the Iranian armed forces use to pay suppliers overseas.[28] Iranians use alternate places of work to switch cash overseas because of mistrust within the banking system in Iran.[29]

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/29/trump-iran-nuclear-damage-intercepted-call/

[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/29/trump-iran-nuclear-damage-intercepted-call/

[3] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/iran-nuclear-program-israel-damage-intelligence

[4] https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/post-attack-assessment-of-the-first-12-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-facilities

[5] https://www.bbc.com/information/articles/c20r18x8x05o

[6] https://www.bbc.com/information/articles/cvgenq599kwo ; https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear-bomb-uranium.html

[7] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/trump-iran-meeting-nuclear-deal-israel

[8] https://www.bbc.com/information/articles/c20r18x8x05o

[9] https://www.israelhayom dot com/2025/06/26/us-demands-iran-surrenders-enriched-uranium/ ; ttps://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/us-iran-talks-nuclear-program

[10] https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/us-iran-talks-nuclear-program

[11] https://www.nbcnews.com/information/world/iran-s-ballistic-missile-program-non-negotiable-president-hassan-rouhani-n1251072 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/evaluation/iran-update-april-28-2025

[12] https://www.bbc.com/information/articles/c20r18x8x05o

[13] https://x.com/SaeedAzimi1772/standing/1939674145307943162

[14] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-usual-cooperation-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-cannot-go-forward-due-2025-06-30/ ; https://x.com/SaeedAzimi1772/standing/1939674145307943162

[15] https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-on-developments-in-iran

[16] https://www.presstv dot ir/Element/2025/06/30/750321/Iran-Israel-abuse-neighbors-soil-aggression

[17] https://information.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1164611#:~:textual content=Thepercent20IAEApercent20appliespercent20safeguardspercent20topercent20verifypercent20states,usepercent20nuclearpercent20materialpercent20forpercent20peacefulpercent20purposespercent20only.&textual content=Aspercent20apercent20nonpercent2Dnuclearpercent20armedpercent20signatorypercent20topercent20the,activitiespercent2Cpercent20includingpercent20atpercent20shortpercent20noticepercent2Cpercent20ifpercent20asked.

[18] https://x.com/IranIntl_En/standing/1938173802958995930; https://x.com/PressTV/standing/1938204404081156141

[19] https://x.com/SaeedAzimi1772/standing/1938889259840110807

[20] https://information.makarem dot ir/fa/information/particulars/431040

[21] https://donya-e-eqtesad dot com/%D8percentA8percentD8percentAEpercentD8percentB4-%D8percentB3percentD8percentA7percentDBpercent8CpercentD8percentAA-%D8percentAEpercentD9percent88percentD8percentA7percentD9percent86-62/4188878-%D8percentA8percentDBpercent8CpercentD8percentA7percentD9percent86percentDBpercent8CpercentD9percent87-%D8percentB4percentD9percent88percentD8percentB1percentD8percentA7percentDBpercent8C-%D8percentB9percentD8percentA7percentD9percent84percentDBpercent8C-%D8percentA7percentD9percent85percentD9percent86percentDBpercent8CpercentD8percentAA-%D9percent85percentD9percent84percentDBpercent8C-%D8percentAFpercentD8percentB1percentD8percentA8percentD8percentA7percentD8percentB1percentD9percent87-%D9percent85percentD9percent82percentD8percentA7percentD8percentA8percentD9percent84percentD9percent87-%D8percentA8percentD8percentA7-%D8percentACpercentD8percentA7percentD8percentB3percentD9percent88percentD8percentB3percentD8percentA7percentD9percent86-%D9percent85percentD8percentB1percentD8percentAApercentDApercentA9percentD8percentA8percentD8percentA7percentD9percent86-%D8percentAFpercentD8percentB1-%DApercent86percentD8percentA7percentD8percentB1percentDApercent86percentD9percent88percentD8percentA8-%D9percent85percentD8percentADpercentD8percentA7percentD8percentB1percentD8percentA8percentD9percent87-%D9percent85percentD8percentADpercentDApercentA9percentD9percent88percentD9percent85-%D9percent85percentDBpercent8C-%D8percentB4percentD9percent88percentD9percent86percentD8percentAF

[22] https://www.khabaronline dot ir/information/2079046/%D8percentA7percentDApercent98percentD9percent87-%D8percentA7percentDBpercent8C-%D9percent87percentD9percent85percentDApercentA9percentD8percentA7percentD8percentB1percentDBpercent8C-%D8percentA8percentD8percentA7-%D9percent85percentD8percentAApercentD8percentAEpercentD8percentA7percentD8percentB5percentD9percent85percentDBpercent8CpercentD9percent86-%D9percent88-%D9percent85percentD8percentAApercentD8percentACpercentD8percentA7percentD9percent88percentD8percentB2percentD8percentA7percentD9percent86-%D8percentA7percentD8percentB4percentD8percentAF-%D9percent85percentD8percentACpercentD8percentA7percentD8percentB2percentD8percentA7percentD8percentAA-%D8percentB1percentD8percentA7-%D8percentAFpercentD8percentB1-%D9percentBEpercentDBpercent8C-%D8percentAFpercentD8percentA7percentD8percentB1percentD8percentAF

[23] https://www.hra-news dot org/2022/hranews/a-37890/

[24] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-26-2025; https://iranwire.com/en/options/142441-irans-senior-clerics-stay-silent-amid-war-as-former-president-seeks-compromise/

[25] https://x.com/KhosroIsfahani/standing/1939399506119860252; https://x.com/mehrnews_ir/standing/1939559629169582094

[26] https://www.sharghdaily dot com/%D8percentA8percentD8percentAEpercentD8percentB4-%D8percentACpercentD8percentA7percentD9percent85percentD8percentB9percentD9percent87-220/1025907-%D8percentA8percentD8percentA7percentD8percentB2percentD8percentAFpercentD8percentA7percentD8percentB4percentD8percentAA-%D8percentA8percentD8percentB1percentD8percentAEpercentDBpercent8C-%D8percentA7percentD8percentAApercentD8percentA8percentD8percentA7percentD8percentB9-%D8percentA7percentD8percentB1percentD9percent88percentD9percentBEpercentD8percentA7percentDBpercent8CpercentDBpercent8C-%D8percentA8percentD9percent87-%D8percentA7percentD8percentAApercentD9percent87percentD8percentA7percentD9percent85-%D9percent87percentD9percent85percentDApercentA9percentD8percentA7percentD8percentB1percentDBpercent8C-%D8percentA8percentD8percentA7-%D8percentA7percentD8percentB3percentD8percentB1percentD8percentA7percentDBpercent8CpercentDBpercent8CpercentD9percent84

[27] https://x.com/IranIntl/standing/1939684259788460347

[28] https://www.jpost dot com/middle-east/iran-news/article-858033; https://www.tabnak dot ir/fa/information/1314440; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-aligned-hackers-hobbled-irans-financial-system-fb1b0376?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1J