Why Trump-Putin talks unlikely to carry speedy finish to Ukraine struggle

[ad_1] Vitaliy Shevchenko BBC Monitoring Russia editor

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/6851/live/b48bd340-7391-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/6851/live/b48bd340-7391-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6851/live/b48bd340-7391-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/6851/live/b48bd340-7391-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/6851/live/b48bd340-7391-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/6851/live/b48bd340-7391-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/6851/live/b48bd340-7391-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6851/live/b48bd340-7391-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="EPA A woman wearing a red jumper and holding her phone walks past a bombed-out residential building in Kyiv on 21 July." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> EPA Three rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine held at Trump's behest have did not carry the 2 sides any nearer to peace

The struggle in Ukraine, sparked by Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, exhibits no signal of abating.

Within the east of Ukraine, Russia presses on in a grinding and bloody advance. Lethal aerial strikes are a nightly prevalence throughout the nation, whereas Russia's refineries and power amenities come beneath common assault from Kyiv's drones.

It's towards this backdrop that the Kremlin confirmed a gathering between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was being deliberate and because of happen quickly. "I am right here to get [the war] over with," the US chief mentioned on Wednesday.

Three rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine held at his behest between Might and July have did not carry the 2 sides any nearer to peace, and Trump might hope that taking the state of affairs into his personal arms might lastly lead to a ceasefire.

However the gulf between Kyiv and Moscow is so giant that even Trump-mediated talks might make it troublesome to bridge.

In a memorandum introduced to the Ukrainians by Russia in June, Moscow outlined its maximalist calls for for a "last settlement" of the battle. They embrace the popularity of Russian sovereignty over the Ukrainian areas of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in addition to Ukraine agreeing to demilitarisation, neutrality, no overseas navy involvement and new elections.

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"The Russian facet can body this in a dozen alternative ways, creating the impression that Moscow is open to concessions and severe negotiation," wrote Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya. "However the core place stays unchanged: Russia needs Kyiv to give up."

Following a gathering between Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned on Wednesday that Washington had a greater understanding of the situations beneath which Russia could be ready to finish the struggle.

We do not know if these situations have modified. Nonetheless, solely final week Putin – probably referencing the memorandum – mentioned Russia had made its objectives recognized in June, and that these objectives had stayed the identical.

Subsequently, regardless of the Kremlin agreeing to a Trump-Putin assembly, there isn't any purpose to consider Moscow is able to budge on its robust preconditions.

So why would Putin be agreeing to talks at this stage?

One chance is that it hopes partaking in dialogue might fend off the secondary sanctions Trump has threatened to impose on Moscow's buying and selling companions as quickly as Friday. The Kremlin may additionally really feel it might persuade Trump of the deserves of its situations to finish the struggle.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/004d/live/3eea5520-7383-11f0-a52b-2f1937b0af42.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/004d/live/3eea5520-7383-11f0-a52b-2f1937b0af42.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/004d/live/3eea5520-7383-11f0-a52b-2f1937b0af42.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/004d/live/3eea5520-7383-11f0-a52b-2f1937b0af42.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/004d/live/3eea5520-7383-11f0-a52b-2f1937b0af42.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/004d/live/3eea5520-7383-11f0-a52b-2f1937b0af42.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/004d/live/3eea5520-7383-11f0-a52b-2f1937b0af42.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/004d/live/3eea5520-7383-11f0-a52b-2f1937b0af42.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Trump and Putin shaking hands in front of a lectern reading "Helsinki". American and Russian flags are in the background" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Getty Photographs Trump's feedback following his assembly with Putin in Helsinki in 2018 left many shocked

In the beginning of his second time period in workplace, Trump gave the impression to be extra aligned with Russia than Ukraine, labelling Zelensky a "dictator" and suggesting he was in charge for the struggle with Russia.

Though he has since signalled his impatience with Putin – "he is simply tapping me alongside", he mentioned in April – Trump has additionally refused to say whether or not he felt the Russian chief had been mendacity to him over his readiness to maneuver in the direction of a ceasefire.

Whether or not due to private affinity or an aligned worldview, Trump has been reluctant to ever totally condemn Putin for his actions.

When the 2 met in Helsinki in 2018 – throughout Trump's first time period as president - many had been left shocked to see Trump facet with the Kremlin over accusations of Russian meddling within the 2016 US election and take accountability for the tense state of US-Russia relations.

It's maybe partly to fend off the opportunity of Trump being swayed by Putin that Kyiv needs to be concerned in any ceasefire talks.

Via his envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump has additionally prompt holding a trilateral with Putin and Zelensky. However the Russian president has batted off these solutions, saying the situations for a gathering are nonetheless far off.

Now some in Ukraine are involved a Trump-Putin assembly might consequence within the US president giving in to Putin's calls for.

Ukrainian MP Iryna Herashchenko mentioned it was changing into evident that calls for for territorial concessions by Ukraine could be made and added being absent from the negotiating desk could be "very harmful" for Kyiv.

"Ukraine just isn't afraid of conferences and expects the identical daring method from the Russian facet," Zelensky mentioned on Thursday.

However the gulf between Russia and Ukraine stays.

And will the Kremlin finally comply with a trilateral assembly, Moscow's calls for for a ceasefire have confirmed so intractable that it's unclear what bringing Zelensky and Putin face-to-face would possibly obtain.