Mapping Ukraine's frontlines and ceasefire eventualities

[ad_1] Paul Adams BBC Diplomatic Correspondent

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/6d76/live/255e15e0-785d-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/6d76/live/255e15e0-785d-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6d76/live/255e15e0-785d-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/6d76/live/255e15e0-785d-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/6d76/live/255e15e0-785d-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/6d76/live/255e15e0-785d-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/6d76/live/255e15e0-785d-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6d76/live/255e15e0-785d-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp" loading="eager" alt="BBC Map of Ukraine overlaid with the national flag colours - blue on top and yellow on the bottom. Stylised black-and-white headshots of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, both in suits and looking serious, are on either side of the map." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> BBC Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday

Hypothesis has swirled over whether or not the Trump-Putin summit will outcome within the map of Ukraine being forcibly – and essentially – altered.

Russia has laid declare to huge components of Ukraine since 2014, when President Vladimir Putin made his first transfer.

On the time, within the area of a brief few months, Moscow carried out the comparatively cold occupation and annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

However that was adopted by a Russian-backed separatist motion within the japanese Donbas area – particularly the 2 areas, or "oblasts", referred to as Donetsk and Luhansk.

A battle simmered there for eight years.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ee21/live/a8ae40b0-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ee21/live/a8ae40b0-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ee21/live/a8ae40b0-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ee21/live/a8ae40b0-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ee21/live/a8ae40b0-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ee21/live/a8ae40b0-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ee21/live/a8ae40b0-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ee21/live/a8ae40b0-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Map of Ukraine before the war, showing Ukraine and Russia. Key areas highlighted are Crimea which was wholly annexed by Russia in 2014, Luhansk and Donetsk are labelled and a large patch on the east of the two regions is shaded purple and labelled as areas held by Russian-backed separatists. The capital Kyiv is also labelled and an inset showing Ukraine's location in Europe." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Ukraine after 2014 and earlier than the beginning of the 2022 full-scale invasion

Ukraine misplaced round 14,000 troopers and civilians throughout this era.

However in February 2022, Putin launched his full-scale invasion. Russian troops shortly reached the outskirts of Kyiv and seized large swathes of the south, together with huge chunks of two extra oblasts, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/acf7/live/d8b21f70-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/acf7/live/d8b21f70-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/acf7/live/d8b21f70-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/acf7/live/d8b21f70-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/acf7/live/d8b21f70-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/acf7/live/d8b21f70-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/acf7/live/d8b21f70-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/acf7/live/d8b21f70-7834-11f0-a975-cb151ca452f4.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Map showing Russian military control in Ukraine one month into the war. Solid red areas indicate full Russian control and stretch up to 100km from the Russian border in eastern Ukraine; red diagonal lines show limited control and almost reaches the capital of Kyiv – it shows the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south east. Source: ISW (March 2022)" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Ukraine in 2022 - one month into the full-scale invasion

The battle has ebbed and flowed ever since. Russia now controls fairly much less territory - down from about 27% within the spring of 2022 to round 20% now. Within the east, Russian forces are advancing, however very slowly and at nice price.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine says an unconditional ceasefire is required now. European allies additionally insist on on a halt in preventing. US President Donald Trump says that's what he has been making an attempt to attain.

However within the run-up to his Alaska summit with Putin, Trump has began speaking, as a substitute about territorial swaps. That has despatched shockwaves throughout Kyiv and Europe.

It's not in any respect clear what land Trump is referring to, or what these swaps might appear like, given that every one the territory in query legally belongs to Ukraine.

As of August 2025, the territory of Ukraine seems as follows:

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/dcfc/live/f472eb90-7834-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/dcfc/live/f472eb90-7834-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/dcfc/live/f472eb90-7834-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/dcfc/live/f472eb90-7834-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/dcfc/live/f472eb90-7834-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/dcfc/live/f472eb90-7834-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/dcfc/live/f472eb90-7834-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/dcfc/live/f472eb90-7834-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Map showing the front line in Ukraine as of 12 August 2025. Areas under Russian military control are shaded pink, limited control areas have red stripes, and claimed Russian control areas are shaded yellow – it shows Russia has lost control of almost all the areas outside of the four regions to the east of the country and Crimea. Key cities marked include Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Source: ISW" class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> Russia would dearly like to increase its management over everything of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Some experiences recommend that Putin is demanding that Ukraine hand over the remaining territory it controls in each oblasts.

However that may imply Kyiv giving up on locations which tens of hundreds of Ukrainian troopers have died making an attempt to guard - cities like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, and a fortified line defending Ukrainian territory to the north and west.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/bf07/live/4eafda40-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/bf07/live/4eafda40-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bf07/live/4eafda40-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/bf07/live/4eafda40-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/bf07/live/4eafda40-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/bf07/live/4eafda40-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/bf07/live/4eafda40-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bf07/live/4eafda40-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Map highlighting the Donbas area in yellow. The Donetsk towns of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are labelled inside the area on the Ukrainian side of the front line, which is marked in red. Source: ISW, dated 12 August 2025." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> For Kyiv, such a concession could be a bitter capsule to swallow. For Moscow, whose losses have been much more catastrophic, it will be seen as victory.

Zelensky mentioned on Tuesday that Ukraine "couldn't" depart the Donbas as Moscow would use the area as a springboard to assault the remainder of the nation.

In current days, Russian forces look like pushing exhausting, and making progress, close to the city of Dobropillya. Nevertheless it's not but clear whether or not this marks a major strategic transfer or simply an effort to point out Trump that Moscow has the higher hand.

What about Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, captured in 2022?

Right here, it is reported, Russia is providing to halt its offensive and freeze the traces.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/0588/live/a237fa30-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0588/live/a237fa30-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0588/live/a237fa30-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/0588/live/a237fa30-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/0588/live/a237fa30-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/0588/live/a237fa30-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/0588/live/a237fa30-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0588/live/a237fa30-7836-11f0-a20f-3b86f375586a.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Map highlighting Zaporizhzhia and Kherson areas in yellow. The front line between Ukrainian and Russian forces is marked in red. Key locations labelled include Kyiv, Mariupol, Crimea, the Black Sea, and the Sea of Azov. Source: ISW, dated 12 August 2025." class="sc-d1200759-0 dvfjxj"/> However would Russia be ready to provide any of it again?

On Monday, Trump talked vaguely about "ocean-front property" – presumably a reference to a few of this shoreline, alongside the Sea of Azov or Black Sea.

However that is all a part of Putin's strategically important land bridge connecting Russia to occupied Crimea.

It is exhausting to see the Russian chief agreeing to provide any of it up. Like Donetsk and Luhansk, Putin regards these locations as a part of Russia, and illegally annexed them three years in the past in 4 referendums extensively thought to be a sham.