‘We didn’t perceive the targets of the conflict’: Israel’s inflated Hamas loss of life toll exhibits lack of technique in Gaza

[ad_1] A s Israel gears up for a brand new offensive in Gaza, figures from a categorized database counsel the nation’s political and army management has for 2 years misled their nation and the world a few conflict that has overwhelmingly killed civilians .

In Could this 12 months, Israel’s army intelligence database of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters had 47,653 names. Of them, 8,900 had been marked as killed, or in all probability killed, a joint investigation by the Guardian, the Israeli-Palestinian publication +972 Magazine and the Hebrew-language outlet Local Call has discovered.

That's lower than one in 5 of the entire, and much beneath figures given publicly by politicians and army commanders, who've given tolls greater than double that quantity, various between 17,000 and 20,000 for a similar interval.

An intelligence staff reviewing militant casualties concluded that the database in all probability undercounted the entire “by just a little” however the considerably larger figures given publicly had been “inaccurate”, a number of intelligence sources mentioned.

The aftermath of an Israeli strike on Deir al-Balah. The overwhelming majority of deaths and accidents within the Gaza conflict have been civilians. {Photograph}: Haitham Imad/EPA Killing a big proportion of enemy troopers isn't all the time a army goal in conflict or a precondition for victory. However within the absence of a long-term technique, Israel’s army selected to make the militant toll a metric of their success.

Quickly after the beginning of the conflict, Yossi Sariel, then the top of the elite 8200 intelligence unit, started sending a day by day replace on the toll within the type of a knowledge graph, which was dubbed the “conflict dashboard”, a number of intelligence sources instructed the Guardian.

The show was handled like “a soccer recreation, officers sitting round watching the numbers go up on the dashboard,” one supply mentioned.

Sariel and different senior commanders introduced the deaths of Hamas fighters as an goal in itself, sources mentioned. There was no dialogue of how Gaza can be managed or ruled if Hamas collapsed, or what concessions Israel may attempt to drive by the mass killing of particular person fighters.

“We had a stupendous, interactive dashboard, however we didn’t perceive the targets of the conflict,” one in every of Sariel’s subordinates mentioned. “It was very irritating, the flattening of issues into numbers.” Requested about his give attention to the variety of militant casualties, Sariel declined to remark.

A number of sources mentioned that inflating militant loss of life tolls, figures steadily reported and amplified by the Israeli media, was seen by some within the army as a approach to restore their standing within the eyes of the Israeli public after the failures of seven October 2023.

However from a strategic perspective that try to measure army progress by a militant physique rely, amid an especially excessive charge of civilian killing, was tactically unsound and self-defeating, a senior western army supply mentioned.

“They're simply measuring the unsuitable statistic. They are going to by no means be capable to kill all people who's related to Hamas, so what's the definition of victory?”

For practically two years, Benjamin Netanyahu has mentioned Israeli forces are in Gaza to “destroy Hamas”, an goal so obscure it could possibly be pursued virtually indefinitely.

The army capacities that allowed the group to bloodbath 1,200 individuals in Israel in 2023 have been destroyed. All bar one of many management group who deliberate the 7 October assaults have been killed, as have lots of their replacements.

Israel has reduced much of Gaza to a flattened wasteland , killed or injured one in 10 of the prewar inhabitants and compelled the ravenous survivors into simply 20% of Gaza’s space.

<gu-island name="InteractiveBlockComponent" priority="critical" deferuntil="idle" props="{"url":"https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/GzLTb/1/","scriptUrl":"https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/iframe-wrapper/0.1/boot.js","alt":"Graph showing deaths and injuries in Gaza since October 2023","format":{"design":10,"display":2,"theme":0},"elementId":"e1572e95-dcea-422b-bc04-0887c77f9bc3","isMainMedia":false}"> Graph showing deaths and injuries in Gaza since October 2023 In that apocalyptic panorama, after intensive bombings and floor operations which have killed tens of hundreds of civilians, most people listed in Israel’s database as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters are nonetheless alive.

Israel defines and targets as militants many individuals who don't take part in fight, and are protected civilians underneath worldwide legislation.

A selected piece of intelligence is connected to each operative on the checklist whom the military is certain it killed, justifying that designation, intelligence sources mentioned. The Guardian, +972 and Native Name obtained figures with out names or further studies.

“Anyone that we've got information of their loss of life, in any means by any means, might be documented there,” one supply mentioned. The doc notes the confirmed deaths of seven,330 militants and information 1,570 as “in all probability lifeless”. There have been 750 senior Hamas operatives within the database; 300 had been labelled as definitely or in all probability killed.

Evaluating the army database with the casualty checklist compiled by the Gaza well being ministry signifies Israel killed 5 civilians for every militant inside Gaza. Mass killing is one issue cited by students, legal professionals and rights teams, who say Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

True loss of life toll is larger Each the army database and the well being ministry casualty checklist are underestimates.

Israel’s army intelligence groups are conscious that they had not recognized all militants and have no idea of each loss of life, sources with information of the database mentioned. However their estimates nonetheless indicated that “for every militant, 4 civilians had been killed”.

The casualty checklist printed by the well being ministry consists of solely these whose our bodies have been recovered, not the hundreds buried underneath the rubble. Peer-reviewed worldwide analysis additionally indicates a significantly higher toll .

<gu-island name="InteractiveBlockComponent" priority="critical" deferuntil="idle" props="{"url":"https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2025/08/gaza_evacuations_21aug/giv-325547RDWchF5KO0v/","scriptUrl":"https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/iframe-wrapper/0.1/boot.js","alt":"Map showing majority IDF military zones and evacuated areas of Gaza.","role":"supporting","format":{"design":10,"display":2,"theme":0},"elementId":"c1dce277-f210-40fc-93b8-a1e171084fe3","isMainMedia":false}" data-spacefinder-role="supporting"> Map showing majority IDF military zones and evacuated areas of Gaza. But Netanyahu, who's wanted by the international criminal court over allegations of war crimes , is promising that one other floor operation in Gaza Metropolis – which might inevitably deliver additional mass killings of Palestinian civilians – will permit the army to “seize management of the final terrorist strongholds” and defeat Hamas.

The western army supply mentioned: “What we're seeing now could be one other throw of a shedding cube. As a result of this isn't going to work. It’s going to be extra of the identical.

“There is no such thing as a means that any of that is going to result in any state of affairs the place you might probably apply the phrase victory. It’s gratuitous violence for no army level in any respect.”

Hamas now has only a handful of rockets that it could wrestle to deploy and its fighters wouldn't simply get close to the border fence, a lot much less by it. It doesn't pose an existential risk to Israel, according to Israeli and Palestinian specialists.

“They've misplaced the flexibility to threaten Israel itself for the following one to 20 years minimal,” mentioned Muhammad Shehada, an analyst on the European Council on International Relations.

But when preventing continues in Gaza, Hamas may have time and manpower on its facet. Israel’s army is structured to battle standard armies in brief wars, mobilising from reserves. Rising numbers of reservists at the moment are refusing to report for obligation, and the army is considering an appeal to the diaspora .

“Hamas can keep a long-term insurgency in Gaza, as a result of it doesn’t take a lot: all they want is rifles and anti-tank weapons,” Shehada mentioned. “In the event that they recycle the Israeli bombs that didn’t explode there may be an limitless provide of explosives, and the genocide supplies an infinite recruiting pool for brand new members.”

Destroyed buildings in Gaza Metropolis. Israel has decreased a lot of the strip to a flattened wasteland. {Photograph}: Omar al-Qattaa/AFP/Getty Photos American intelligence estimates counsel Hamas has recruited 15,000 operatives during the war , about twice as many as Israel has killed.

Public claims of a loss of life toll approaching 20,000 have additionally been criticised by rightwing figures inside Israel. The retired normal Itzhak Brik, a confidant of Netanyahu initially of the conflict however now a fierce critic, believes even the 8,900 determine is an exaggeration.

The give attention to the loss of life toll provided a harmful incentive to lie, he mentioned, describing the a lot larger toll as “one of the severe bluffs” within the nation’s historical past.

In April 2024, a number of members of the Knesset’s overseas affairs and protection committee questioned militant casualty figures introduced to them by the military, the rightwing day by day Israel Hayom reported .

After inspecting the army’s information, the committee members discovered public estimates had inflated the variety of militant casualties “with the intention to create a 2:1 ratio” between civilian and militant deaths.

Their findings echo numbers within the militant database seen by the Guardian. The checklist is predicated on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad paperwork from earlier than and after 7 October and in depth analysis. It consists of hundreds of militants the military believes had been recruited after the beginning of the conflict.

The Israeli army didn't dispute the existence of the database or the casualty information when approached for remark by Native Name and +972. When the Guardian requested for touch upon the identical information, a spokesperson mentioned that they had determined to “rephrase” their response.

In a press release to the Guardian the army didn't instantly tackle questions in regards to the intelligence database. It mentioned “figures introduced within the article are incorrect”, with out specifying the information it disputed. A spokesperson didn't reply when requested why the army had given completely different responses to questions on a single set of knowledge.