With new Texas maps, GOP exams its good points with Latinos : NPR

[ad_1] <img src="https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/8256x5504+0+0/resize/1100/quality/50/format/jpeg/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F09%2F18%2F9837c517445f906f552fc04a1a06%2Fgettyimages-2228836047.jpg" data-template="https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/8256x5504+0+0/resize/{width}/quality/{quality}/format/{format}/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F09%2F18%2F9837c517445f906f552fc04a1a06%2Fgettyimages-2228836047.jpg" class="img" alt="U.S. congressional district maps are displayed as the Senate Special Committee on Congressional Redistricting meets at the Texas State Capitol on Aug. 6, in Austin, Texas. Republicans are hoping the newly redrawn maps will boost their chances of keeping control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections." fetchpriority="high"/> U.S. congressional district maps are displayed because the Senate Particular Committee on Congressional Redistricting meets on the Texas State Capitol on Aug. 6, in Austin, Texas. Republicans are hoping the newly redrawn maps will enhance their possibilities of preserving management of Congress in subsequent 12 months's midterm elections. Brandon Bell/Getty Photos conceal caption

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Brandon Bell/Getty Photos SEGUIN, Texas – Beneath a broiling solar, there is a in style, frozen drinks cease right here within the seat of Guadalupe County often known as Milly's the place locals cool off in the summertime.

However enterprise proprietor Tomas Hernandez Jr. says the political surroundings is hotter than ever. A lot of that has to do with a struggling economic system, he says.

"Lots of people who supported Trump weren't anticipating this to occur," mentioned Hernandez, 64.

Grocery costs are excessive, suppliers are charging extra and laborers are leaving because the Trump administration intensifies its deportation push.

Now, state Republicans are transferring Hernandez's south central Texas group into a brand new congressional district as a part of a controversial mid-decade redistricting effort designed to develop the scale of their delegation within the U.S. Home. It is a transfer that grew to become official on Friday, when Gov. Greg Abbott signed the brand new map into legislation.

On the middle of the GOP redistricting plan is a high-stakes guess that the brand new map will enhance the celebration's possibilities of preserving management of Congress in subsequent 12 months's midterm elections. The hassle has triggered a redistricting arms race of types, as Democrats in California have moved to redraw their maps, with different states anticipated to observe.

In Texas, the place Republicans made massive inroads with Hispanic voters in final 12 months's election, the celebration is hoping these good points could be locked in for good. The brand new Texas map provides 5 districts which might be anticipated to be secure Republican seats.

4 of these seats are Hispanic-majority, testing the GOP's good points with the state's largest demographic group.

A Democrat, Hernandez questions whether or not Latinos who voted Republican final 12 months, together with his personal relations, will keep loyal to Trump.

"Hispanics, whether or not they're my circle of relatives, or non-family members that supported Trump, they noticed it pretty much as good for the economic system, however I do not see any advantages," he mentioned.

Celebration leaders are extra assured. Longtime Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn likes to brag on his celebration's good points with Latino voters.

"President Trump received a considerable improve within the vote of the Hispanic inhabitants," Cornyn mentioned throughout a marketing campaign cease at an Abilene, Texas technical faculty this week, roughly 300 miles from Seguin.

In final 12 months's election, Trump got here inside putting distance of successful a majority of Hispanic voters nationwide, taking 48% of the vote to Kamala Harris' 51%. For Trump, it was a pointy uptick from the 36% share he received in 2020.

<img src="https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/5391x3591+0+0/resize/1100/quality/50/format/jpeg/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F33%2F56%2F4eb1faa7422196c9289046e24746%2Fgettyimages-1771875821.jpg" data-template="https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/5391x3591+0+0/resize/{width}/quality/{quality}/format/{format}/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F33%2F56%2F4eb1faa7422196c9289046e24746%2Fgettyimages-1771875821.jpg" class="img" alt="In last year’s election, Trump came within striking distance of winning a majority of Hispanic voters nationwide, taking 48% of the vote. Above, Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Trendsetter Engineering Inc. in Houston on Nov. 2, 2023." loading="lazy"/> In final 12 months's election, Trump got here inside putting distance of successful a majority of Hispanic voters nationwide, taking 48% of the vote. Above, Trump speaks at a marketing campaign rally at Trendsetter Engineering Inc. in Houston on Nov. 2, 2023. Brandon Bell/Getty Photos conceal caption

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Brandon Bell/Getty Photos "As Democrats on the nationwide degree grow to be increasingly radical, and increasingly excessive, I believe extra Hispanics want to Republican candidates to vote," Cornyn mentioned.

However Texas Democratic congressman Greg Casar disagrees. Throughout his marketing campaign launch this week from a downtown Austin constructing, he mentioned Republicans will lose Latino voters.

Casar is working to characterize a shrinking blue dot in Austin below the brand new Texas map in a redrawn thirty seventh congressional district. His outdated thirty fifth congressional district will shift south to a four-county space that features Seguin. It will likely be 60% Latino.

"I've already heard from south Texas Democratic elected officers, who want to run in that south Texas District, and I sit up for supporting them," he mentioned.

<img src="https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/8667x5768+0+0/resize/1100/quality/50/format/jpeg/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fef%2F0a%2F4847367740fe870093c05ef49784%2Fgettyimages-2228560743.jpg" data-template="https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/8667x5768+0+0/resize/{width}/quality/{quality}/format/{format}/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fef%2F0a%2F4847367740fe870093c05ef49784%2Fgettyimages-2228560743.jpg" class="img" alt="Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, protests the redistricting plan outside of the Texas governor's mansion on Aug. 4 in Austin. Casar is running to represent a shrinking blue dot under the new Texas map in a redrawn 37th congressional district. His old district, the 35th, will shift to an area that is 60% Latino." loading="lazy"/> Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, protests the redistricting plan exterior of the Texas governor's mansion on Aug. 4 in Austin. Casar is working to characterize a shrinking blue dot below the brand new Texas map in a redrawn thirty seventh congressional district. His outdated district, the thirty fifth, will shift to an space that's 60% Latino. Brandon Bell/Getty Photos conceal caption

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Brandon Bell/Getty Photos College of Houston politics professor Brandon Rottinghaus says historical past will not be on Democrats' aspect, noting the celebration successfully misplaced management of the state within the Nineties.

"The hassle right here appears to be to make Democrats be solely an city celebration," Rottinghaus mentioned. "The districts that Republicans are drawing to attempt to maximize their good points embrace suburban areas, exurban areas and rural areas," he mentioned.

However there isn't any assure the Republican gerrymander will play out that manner, a minimum of within the close to time period.

Polls present Latinos who voted for the GOP are turning towards Trump over the economic system and deportations. Roughly a 3rd of Latinos who supported Trump final 12 months "usually are not set on voting for a Republican" throughout subsequent 12 months's midterms, based on Equis Analysis, a Latino polling group.

That might make the brand new maps riskier for Republicans than they assume.

"That is what some individuals name a dummymander," Rottinghaus mentioned. You "inadvertently draw a map that finally ends up hurting."

The shifting panorama poses a vital take a look at for Republicans. The brand new GOP map may solidify the celebration's grip on Texas for years to come back, particularly if Democrats battle to win again Latino voters who had been as soon as solidly of their camp.

Again in Seguin, Hernandez says Democrats have taken Texas Latino voters as a right. Now, he argues, Republicans have given them a brand new opening, and his celebration must ramp up their sport.

"If Republicans weren't nervous, they would not be doing all this redistricting," he mentioned. "I believe Democrats have to get up and be energetic and vote."