Chris Fallica
FOX Sports activities Wagering Skilled
“Bear Bets” are actual wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is definitely making.
You win some, you lose some. Final week, fortunately, we gained greater than we misplaced — and we even received a push.
Let’s examine if we are able to get all Ws in school soccer Week 5.
Final Week: 3-2-1Season: 10-8-1
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No. 8 Florida State @ Virginia
I don’t suppose this shall be simple for the Noles, on what may very well be a spooky Friday evening in Charlottesville. On the very least, I feel the UVA offense may have some success placing factors on the board. Query is, can the Hoos protection gradual the FSU run sport and the massive play potential of Tommy Castellanos? Are the FSU offensive numbers a bit inflated from video games towards Kent State and East Texas A&M? Most likely. However that is clearly an improved unit with the brand new QB and Gus Malzahn as OC. FSU simply must get out with a win to arrange a monster top-10 matchup with Miami subsequent week in Tallahassee. I feel it is going to, however it will not be simple.
PICK: Virginia (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 factors or win outright
No. 25 BYU @ Colorado
The CU offense has an opportunity with Kaidon Salter at QB. BYU took care of enterprise in what may have been a difficult spot final week at ECU and now has to return on the street right here. Its protection has carried it up to now, however CU ought to provide a much bigger problem right here.
PICK: Colorado (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 factors or win outright
UCLA @ Northwestern
Northwestern is laying 6.5? I’ll take the factors.
PICK: UCLA (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 factors or win outright
San Diego State @ Northern Illinois
So San Diego State shut out Cal final week as a 14-point ‘canine and is now laying factors on the street? This isn’t the NIU group of final yr that gained at Notre Dame, however I’ll nonetheless seize the factors with NIU.
PICK: NIU (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 factors or win outright
UCF @ Kansas State
Ok-State has misplaced three toss-up video games towards Iowa State, Military and Arizona. UCF is undefeated and coming off a rout of a foul UNC group. Appears like a spot for the Cats to get proper and put up a giant quantity on a group that’s nonetheless anticipated to complete at or close to the underside of the Large 12.
PICK: Kansas State (-5.5) to win by greater than 5.5 factors
Arizona @ No. 14 Iowa State
Iowa State has been the other of Kansas State. It has gained its three coin-flip video games and sits at 4-0, though the group’s stats don’t precisely profile like a 4-0 group. If Arizona can pull an upset right here, the Cats may very well be taking a look at a 6-0 begin. Noah Fifita may not have Tet McMillan to throw to anymore, however he’s making nice selections up to now. Additionally, I did add an Iowa State U9.5 wins wager to my ledger this week. The juice is a little bit steep, however it’s a wager on a few of Iowa State’s close-game luck night out.
PICK: Arizona (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 factors or win outright
Cal @ Boston School
JKS and Cal was the discuss of the faculty soccer world final week. Some had been even saying the Bears may make the ACC title sport. Then got here a whole debacle of a sport at San Diego State the place the Bears had been shut out 34-0 as a two-TD favourite. My guess right here is we see the JKS we noticed towards Minnesota and Oregon State, and Cal bounces again towards a very dangerous protection and a group which may’t run the ball a lick.
PICK: Cal (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 factors or win outright
Auburn @ No. 9 Texas A&M
Auburn received screwed final week, there’s no different solution to put it. How the Tigers reply is but to be seen, however I feel they are going to carry plenty of angst to School Station and play nicely right here. A&M hasn’t been nice towards the run this yr, which ought to assist Auburn’s offense. It’s a bit ironic that Auburn goes to A&M because the Aggies had been the beneficiaries of a no-call on a blatant maintain towards Notre Dame on the ultimate play to get out of South Bend with a win. Reed and Craver will give Auburn a heck of a check on the opposite facet of the ball, however I feel this at minimal is an in depth one.
PICK: Auburn (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 factors or win outright
No. 16 Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest
That is the right ACC Wheel of Future, ACC Coastal type of chaos. Simply while you count on somebody to make a run, one thing wild occurs. The Yellow Jackets are gonna run to the ACC title sport with ease, proper? I doubt it is going to be that simple. Now, I don’t suppose the boys at Groves Stadium are gonna pull the outright win, however it wouldn’t shock me in any respect to see the Deacs with at the least an opportunity to interrupt by means of the again door late and get a gross cowl.
PICK: Wake Forest (+14) to lose by fewer than 14 factors or win outright
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON MONEYLINE
Final Week: 3-2 (+5.3)Season: 8-10 (+8.55)
Virginia +21UCLA +200 Northern Illinois +115Arizona +205Cal +200Auburn +200Colorado +220
BEAR BYTES
No. 17 Alabama @ No. 5 Georgia
That is simply the fourth time since Georgia’s 33-game house profitable streak started that the Bulldogs are a single-digit favourite and the primary time they’ve been favored by lower than a landing. Within the three earlier cases, UGA was a single-digit favourite in its house profitable streak. The Bulldogs gained every sport by at the least 14 factors and allowed a complete of 36 factors within the three video games.
As an underdog, Kalen Deboer’s groups have gained eight of 11 video games outright and coated 9 of 11. As a Energy 5 head coach, these marks enhance to 6 outright wins in seven tries. The 2023 nationwide title sport is the lone loss each straight up and towards the unfold (ATS). That features a win over Georgia final yr as a two-point ‘canine.
No. 15 Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State didn’t beat a P4 group final yr and now seems to be to report its first SEC win since Oct. 21, 2023. Miss State is 1-15 over the past two years in SEC play.
No. 6 Oregon @ No. 3 Penn State
That is the primary time since 2022 vs. Minnesota that Penn State has been a house favourite of lower than a landing. The Nittany Lions gained that sport 45-17 as a 5.5-point favourite. The final time Penn State was a house favourite of 4 factors or fewer was Sept. 2021, when the Nittany Lions beat Auburn 28-20 as 4-point favourite.
Of the 135 certified QBs in QBR, Drew Allar entered the week 106th at 38.8 (scale of 1-100). That is proper behind South Alabama’s Bishop Davenport and West Virginia’s Nicco Marchiol.
In 9 profession begins vs. ranked P4 opponents, Allar is 3-6, finishing 54.1% of his passes with 11 TDs, 5 INTs and averaging 165.7 YPG. He’s thrown for below 150 yards in 5 of these 9 video games, accomplished below 50% of his passes in three of them and is averaging 5.6 yards per try.
Because the begin of final season, there have been 13 matchups of AP top-six groups. Penn State has misplaced all three it has performed by a mixed 18 factors.
Penn State is 4-20 towards top-10 opponents below James Franklin. One of many wins got here towards Boise State final yr within the CFP. If you happen to restrict it to top-10 Large Ten opponents, Penn State is 2-18 in these video games. Penn State is 3-11 when it’s also ranked within the prime 10 (1-9 vs. Large Ten).
Dan Lanning’s group has been an underdog away from house 4 occasions. It’s misplaced all 4 video games outright.
Relationship again to the 2022 CFP and TCU’s upset win over Michigan, there have been 21 top-six matchups. The purpose unfold hasn’t mattered in any of them. 13 favorites have gained and coated, whereas eight underdogs have gained outright.
Undefeated and a giant ‘canine
Undefeated and disrespected or about to get a actuality examine? UCF is 3-0 and is a 5.5-point ‘canine at 1-3 Ok-State. Then you have got 4-0 Mississippi State, which is a 7.5-point house ’canine vs. Tennessee. There’s additionally 3-0 Arizona, which is a 6.5-point ‘canine at Iowa State.
New Mexico State @ New Mexico
That is the primary time since 1992, when each had been 1-0, that New Mexico and New Mexico State will play and each have a profitable report. That is the primary time since 1964 it is occurred that they’ve performed multiple sport within the season (UNM was 3-2, New Mexico State was 3-2).
San Diego State @ Northern Illinois
As a 14-point favourite, Cal was shut out 34-0 by San Diego State final Saturday. Excluding the 2020 COVID-shortened season, the final time a favourite of at the least 14 factors was shut out was 1991, when 17-point favourite Ohio misplaced 44-0 to Buffalo. The final time it occurred in a Energy 4 league was 1997, when 17-point favourite Auburn misplaced to Mississippi State 20-0. Relationship again to 1978, it is occurred 11 occasions, together with essentially the most well-known occasion the place No. 1 Nebraska was shut out by Arizona State 19-0 as a 24.5-point favourite. Now the Aztecs are 2.5-point street favorites at Northern Illinois.
UCF @ Kansas State
UCF is 3-0 and is presently a 5.5-point underdog at 1-3 Kansas State. This marks the 14th time since 1978 {that a} group 3-0 or higher is an underdog to a group 1-3 or worse. The earlier 13 groups went 2-11 straight up. If you happen to slim it down to groups that had been at the least a 5-point ‘canine, these 5 groups went 0-5 and solely 1999 Oklahoma, which was a 6-point ’canine at Notre Dame, coated.
Auburn @ No. 9 Texas A&M
Auburn has misplaced 9 straight and 14 of its final 15 street video games towards ranked opponents (0-5 below Hugh Freeze).
No. 24 TCU @ Arizona State
Final yr, there have been 4 cases of an unranked group being favored on its house discipline over a group ranked exterior the highest 10. All 4 ranked street underdogs gained the sport outright.
No. 21 USC @ Illinois
Underneath Lincoln Riley, USC has been favored away from house 15 occasions. The Trojans have coated simply three. Two got here within the Rose Bowl towards UCLA. The opposite got here at Stanford. That is 0-11 ATS with six outright losses as a favourite exterior the state of California below Riley.
Illinois was an underdog eight occasions final yr. It gained 5 outright, together with two of the thrice it was a house underdog.
UCLA @ Northwestern
That is simply the second time within the final 37 Large Ten video games Northwestern is favored. And it is the primary time since 2020 Northwestern has been this large a favourite in a convention sport.
No. 1 Ohio State @ Washington
Ohio State is 17-0 straight up in true street video games towards unranked opponents below Ryan Day. Nonetheless, that is the primary time the Buckeyes shall be favored by fewer than 14 factors in any of them.
Relationship again to 2022, there have been eight cases the place No. 1 has been on the street towards an unranked group. No. 1 did not cowl in seven of them, together with Alabama shedding outright at Vanderbilt final yr as a 23.5-point favourite. That is the primary time since 2012 when Notre Dame was a 5-point favourite towards USC that No. 1 was a single-digit favourite on this position.
No. 11 Indiana @ Iowa
Underneath Curt Cignetti, Indiana is 15-0 straight up as a favourite (12-3 ATS). In Large Ten video games, IU is 9-0 straight up (8-1 ATS) as a favourite. Solely one of many video games was determined by fewer than 14 factors.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has coated sports activities for practically three many years. Whereas school soccer has been his focus, he additionally enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such occasions. Chris not too long ago gained the inaugural Circa Soccer Invitational and completed within the Prime 10 of the Golden Nugget Soccer Contest. He is a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Bear in mind, “The much less you wager, the extra you lose while you win!” Comply with him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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