The junta is taking again territory with relentless air strikes and China’s assist

[ad_1] Jonathan Head South East Asia correspondent

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/7eb2/live/f27501c0-af34-11f0-b1c6-736a05ed5483.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/7eb2/live/f27501c0-af34-11f0-b1c6-736a05ed5483.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7eb2/live/f27501c0-af34-11f0-b1c6-736a05ed5483.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/7eb2/live/f27501c0-af34-11f0-b1c6-736a05ed5483.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/7eb2/live/f27501c0-af34-11f0-b1c6-736a05ed5483.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/7eb2/live/f27501c0-af34-11f0-b1c6-736a05ed5483.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/7eb2/live/f27501c0-af34-11f0-b1c6-736a05ed5483.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7eb2/live/f27501c0-af34-11f0-b1c6-736a05ed5483.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="AFP via Getty Images) Women weep in front bodies not pictured in the frame during a funeral for the victims of a bombardment carried out by Myanmar's military in Mrauk U, Myanmar's Rakhine State on August 26, 2025. " class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> AFP by way of Getty Pictures) When insurgents lastly gained management of the city of Kyaukme - on the primary commerce route from the Chinese language border to the remainder of Myanmar - it was after a number of months of laborious preventing final yr.

Kyaukme straddles Asian Freeway 14, extra well-known because the Burma Highway throughout World Struggle Two, and its seize by the Ta'ang Nationwide Liberation Military (TNLA) was seen by many as a pivotal victory for the opposition. It advised that the morale of the navy junta which had seized energy in 2021 could be crumbling.

This month, although, it took simply three weeks for the military to recapture Kyaukme.

The fluctuating destiny of this little hill city is a stark illustration of how far the navy steadiness in Myanmar has now shifted, in favour of the junta.

Kyakme has paid a heavy worth. Giant components of the city have been flattened by each day air strikes carried out by the navy whereas it was within the fingers of the TNLA. Air power jets dropped 500-pound bombs, whereas artillery and drones hit rebel positions outdoors the city. A lot of the inhabitants fled the city, although they're beginning to return now the navy has retaken it.

"There's heavy preventing occurring on daily basis, in Kyaukme and Hsipaw," Tar Parn La, a spokesman for the TNLA, instructed the BBC earlier this month. "This yr the navy has extra troopers, extra heavy weapons, and extra air energy. We try our greatest to defend Hsipaw."

Because the BBC spoke to him the junta's forces have additionally retaken Hsipaw, the final of the cities captured by the TNLA final yr, restoring its management over the highway to the Chinese language border.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/8fa6/live/00cef0b0-af4d-11f0-aa13-0b0479f6f42a.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/8fa6/live/00cef0b0-af4d-11f0-aa13-0b0479f6f42a.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8fa6/live/00cef0b0-af4d-11f0-aa13-0b0479f6f42a.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/8fa6/live/00cef0b0-af4d-11f0-aa13-0b0479f6f42a.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/8fa6/live/00cef0b0-af4d-11f0-aa13-0b0479f6f42a.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/8fa6/live/00cef0b0-af4d-11f0-aa13-0b0479f6f42a.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/8fa6/live/00cef0b0-af4d-11f0-aa13-0b0479f6f42a.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8fa6/live/00cef0b0-af4d-11f0-aa13-0b0479f6f42a.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="A map showing Myanmar's border with China, and the towns of Kyaukme, Lashio and Hpisaw along Asia Highway 14." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> These cities fell primarily as a result of China has thrown its weight behind the junta, backing its plan to carry an election in December. This plan has been extensively condemned as a result of it excludes Aung San Suu Kyi's Nationwide League for Democracy, which received the final election however its authorities was ousted within the coup, and since a lot of Myanmar is in a state of civil struggle.

That's the reason the navy is at present attempting to take again as a lot misplaced territory as it may possibly, to make sure the election can happen in these areas. And it's having fun with extra success this yr as a result of it has realized from its previous failures, and bought new and lethal know-how.

Specifically, it has responded to the early benefit loved by the opposition in using cheap drones, by shopping for 1000's of its personal drones from China, and coaching its ahead models methods to use them, to lethal impact.

Additionally it is utilizing sluggish and easy-to-fly motorised paragliders, which might loiter over lightly-defended areas and drop bombs with excessive accuracy. And it has been bombing relentlessly with its Chinese language and Russian provided plane, inflicting a lot larger numbers of civilian casualties this yr. Not less than a thousand are believed to have been killed this yr, however the complete might be larger.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/740e/live/28d5e6c0-af40-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/740e/live/28d5e6c0-af40-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/740e/live/28d5e6c0-af40-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/740e/live/28d5e6c0-af40-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/740e/live/28d5e6c0-af40-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/740e/live/28d5e6c0-af40-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/740e/live/28d5e6c0-af40-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/740e/live/28d5e6c0-af40-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="AFP via Getty Images This photo taken on August 15, 2025 show students studying in a classroom in a concrete bunker to protect against airstrikes at a village in the Sagaing region." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> AFP by way of Getty Pictures Fearing air strikes, college students shelter in a bunker within the Sagaing area, the place resistance to the junta is powerful

On the opposite aspect, the fragmented opposition motion has been hampered by inherent weaknesses.

It contains tons of of typically poorly-armed "folks's defence forces" or PDFs, shaped by native villagers or by younger activists who fled from the cities, but in addition seasoned fighters from the ethnic rebel teams who've been waging struggle towards the central authorities for many years.

They've their very own agendas, harbouring a deep distrust of the ethnic Burmese majority, and they don't recognise the authority of the Nationwide Unity Authorities which was shaped from the administration ousted by the 2021 coup. So there isn't a central management of the motion.

And now, greater than 4 years right into a civil struggle that has killed 1000's and displaced thousands and thousands, the tide is popping as soon as once more.

How the junta recouped its losses

When an alliance of three ethnic armies in Shan State launched their marketing campaign towards the navy in October 2023 - calling it Operation 1027 - armed resistance to the coup had been occurring in a lot of the nation for greater than two years, however making little progress.

That modified with Operation 1027. The three teams, calling themselves the Brotherhood Alliance - the Ta'ang Nationwide Liberation Military, the Myanmar Nationwide Democratic Alliance Military and the Arakan Military - had ready their assault for months, deploying massive numbers of drones and heavy artillery.

They caught navy bases off-guard, and inside a couple of weeks had overrun round 180 of them, taking management of a big swathe of northern Shan State, and forcing 1000's of troopers to give up.

These gorgeous victories have been greeted by the broader opposition motion as a name to arms, and PDFs started assaults in their very own areas, profiting from low navy morale.

Because the Brotherhood Alliance moved down Asian Freeway 14, in direction of Myanmar's second-largest metropolis of Mandalay, there was open hypothesis that the navy regime may collapse.

That didn't occur.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/953c/live/4d41be40-af3f-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/953c/live/4d41be40-af3f-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/953c/live/4d41be40-af3f-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/953c/live/4d41be40-af3f-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/953c/live/4d41be40-af3f-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/953c/live/4d41be40-af3f-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/953c/live/4d41be40-af3f-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/953c/live/4d41be40-af3f-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images This photo taken on July 3, 2024 shows people buying food in a street market in Kyaukme in Myanmar's northern Shan State." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Getty Pictures Scenes from a market in Kyaukme in Shan State from July 2024...

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/1c97/live/4c89d560-af3e-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/1c97/live/4c89d560-af3e-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/1c97/live/4c89d560-af3e-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/1c97/live/4c89d560-af3e-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/1c97/live/4c89d560-af3e-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/1c97/live/4c89d560-af3e-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/1c97/live/4c89d560-af3e-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/1c97/live/4c89d560-af3e-11f0-a743-017a38be2260.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images This photo taken on July 1, 2024 shows a destroyed house following fighting between Myanmar's military and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) ethnic armed group in Kyaukme " class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Getty Pictures When the city noticed fierce preventing between the TNLA and the junta

"Two issues have been overstated in the beginning of this battle," says Morgan Michaels, a analysis fellow on the Worldwide Institute of Strategic Research.

"The three Shan rebel teams had an extended historical past of working collectively. When different teams noticed their success in 2023, they then synchronised their very own offensives, however this was misinterpret as some kind of unified, nationwide opposition steaming in direction of victory. The second misreading was how dangerous navy morale was. It was dangerous, however to not the extent the place command and management was breaking down."

The junta responded to its losses in late 2023 by beginning a pressured conscription drive. 1000's of younger Burmese males selected to flee, going into hiding or exile abroad, or becoming a member of the resistance.

However greater than 60,000 joined the military, replenishing its exhausted ranks. Whereas inexperienced, they've made a distinction. Rebel sources have confirmed to the BBC that the brand new recruits are one of many elements, along with the drones and air strikes, which have turned the tide on the battlefield.

Drones have given the junta a decisive benefit, reinforcing its supremacy within the air, based on Su Mon, a senior analyst on the Armed Battle Location and Occasion Knowledge Challenge (Acled), which specialises in gathering knowledge on armed conflicts. She has been monitoring the navy's use of drones.

"The resistance teams have been telling us that the virtually fixed drone assaults have killed a lot of their solders and compelled them to retreat. Our knowledge additionally exhibits that navy air strikes have change into extra correct, presumably as a result of they're being guided by drones."

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/5f83/live/caea49f0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/5f83/live/caea49f0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5f83/live/caea49f0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/5f83/live/caea49f0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/5f83/live/caea49f0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/5f83/live/caea49f0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/5f83/live/caea49f0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5f83/live/caea49f0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images A new member of the Special Operation Group- SOG (a branch of the People's Defense Force or PDF) kisses the flag at a military graduation event." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Getty Pictures The resistance, which incorporates volunteer "folks's defence forces", isn't as well-armed because the navy

In the meantime, she says tighter border controls and China's ban on the export of dual-use merchandise are making it more durable for the resistance teams to get entry to drones, and even the parts to assemble their very own drones.

Costs have risen steeply. And the navy has a lot better jamming know-how now, so a lot of their drones are being intercepted.

A struggle on many fronts

The TNLA isn't the one ethnic military which is retreating. In April, after sturdy Chinese language strain, one other of the teams within the Brotherhood Alliance, the MNDAA, deserted Lashio, beforehand the headquarters of the navy in Shan State and a much-heralded prize when the insurgents captured it final yr.

The MNDAA has now agreed to cease preventing the junta. And probably the most highly effective and best-armed of the Shan rebel teams, the UWSA, has additionally buckled to Chinese language calls for and agreed to cease supplying weapons and ammunition to different opposition teams in Myanmar.

These teams function alongside the border and want common entry to China to operate. All China wanted to do was shut border gates and detain a couple of of their leaders to get them to adjust to its calls for.

Additional south, in Karen State, the junta has regained management of the highway to its second most essential crossing on the border with Thailand.

The rebel Karen Nationwide Union, which overran military bases alongside the highway a yr and a half in the past, blames the brand new conscripts, new drones and betrayal by different Karen militia teams for its losses. It has even misplaced Lay Kay Kaw, a brand new city constructed with Japanese funding in 2015 for the KNU, at a time when it was a part of a ceasefire settlement with the central authorities.

In neighbouring Kayah, the place a coalition of resistance teams has managed many of the state for 2 years, the navy has retaken the city of Demoso, and the city of Mobye, simply inside Shan State. Additionally it is advancing in Kachin State within the north, and in contested areas of Sagaing and Mandalay.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/c9f8/live/e50041e0-af4c-11f0-ba75-093eca1ac29b.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/c9f8/live/e50041e0-af4c-11f0-ba75-093eca1ac29b.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c9f8/live/e50041e0-af4c-11f0-ba75-093eca1ac29b.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/c9f8/live/e50041e0-af4c-11f0-ba75-093eca1ac29b.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/c9f8/live/e50041e0-af4c-11f0-ba75-093eca1ac29b.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/c9f8/live/e50041e0-af4c-11f0-ba75-093eca1ac29b.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/c9f8/live/e50041e0-af4c-11f0-ba75-093eca1ac29b.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c9f8/live/e50041e0-af4c-11f0-ba75-093eca1ac29b.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="A map of Myanmar showing the various states where fighting is under way. " class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Nonetheless, there are lots of components of Myanmar the place the junta has been much less profitable. Armed resistance teams management most of Rakhine and Chin States, and are holding the navy at bay, and even driving it again in locations.

One issue within the navy's current victories is that it's concentrating its forces solely in strategically essential areas, Morgan Michaels believes, like the primary commerce routes, and cities the place it wish to maintain the election.

Tellingly Kyaukme and Hsipaw are each designated as locations the place voting is meant to happen. The regime has acknowledged that voting is not going to be doable in 56 out of Myanmar's 330 townships; the opposition believes that quantity will probably be a lot larger.

'China opposes chaos'

China's affect over the ethnic armies on its border may have stopped them mounting the 1027 operation two years in the past. That it selected to not is nearly definitely right down to its frustration then over the rip-off centres which had proliferated in areas managed by clans allied to the junta. The Brotherhood Alliance made certain shutting down the rip-off centres was on the prime of its checklist of objectives.

In the present day, although, China is giving its wholehearted backing to the junta. It's promising technical and monetary support for the election, and has given seen diplomatic assist, arranging two conferences this yr between the junta chief Min Aung Hlaing and Xi Jinping. This regardless of China's unease concerning the 2021 coup, and its vastly harmful penalties.

"China opposes chaos and struggle in Myanmar," stated Overseas Minister Wang Yi in August, which kind of sums up its considerations.

"Beijing's coverage isn't any state collapse," Mr Michaels says. "It has no explicit love for the navy regime, however when it seemed prefer it may teeter and fall, it equated that with state collapse, and stepped in."

China's pursuits in Myanmar are well-known. They share an extended border. Myanmar is seen as China's gateway to the Indian Ocean, and to grease and fuel provides for south-western China. Many Chinese language corporations now have large investments there.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/e991/live/90d61ff0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/e991/live/90d61ff0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/e991/live/90d61ff0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/e991/live/90d61ff0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/e991/live/90d61ff0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/e991/live/90d61ff0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/e991/live/90d61ff0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/e991/live/90d61ff0-af28-11f0-b9f9-e5c1839c872f.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="AFP via Getty Images Students' bags are kept in front of a school building damaged in a bombardment carried out by Myanmar's military at the Ohe Htein Twin village in Tabayin township, Sagaing Region, on May 12, 2025." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> AFP by way of Getty Pictures College students' luggage in entrance of a faculty constructing that was hit throughout bombing within the Sagaing area in Might

And with no different diplomatic initiatives making any headway, China's alternative, to bolster the navy regime by means of this election, is more likely to be endorsed by different nations within the area.

However even China will discover it laborious to finish the struggle. The devastation and human struggling inflicted by the navy on the folks of Myanmar have left a legacy of grievances towards the generals which can final generations.

"The navy has burned down 110 or 120,000 homes simply throughout the dry zone," Mr Michaels says.

"The violence has been immense, and there are few individuals who haven't been touched by it. That is why it's tough to foresee a political course of proper now. Being pressured into ceasefire since you actually can't maintain your entrance strains is one factor, however political bargaining for peace nonetheless appears very distant."