Hurricane Melissa Forecast: Catastrophic Hazard For Jamaica, Haiti

[ad_1] <img alt="The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the dark red and pink colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical system. " data-flatplan-id="flatplan_mainMedia" width="320" height="180" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="shadow-md rounded-lg object-contain h-auto w-full flatplan_mainMedia" style="color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 91vw, (max-width: 1280px) 64vw, 800px" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL14_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=640 640w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL14_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=750 750w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL14_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=828 828w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL14_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1080 1080w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL14_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1200 1200w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL14_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1920 1920w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL14_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=2048 2048w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL14_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840 3840w" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL14_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840"/> Present Satellite tv for pc Picture

Hurricane Melissa is presently present process "excessive speedy intensification," based on the Nationwide Hurricane Middle, rising 70 mph in simply 24 hours. Now a Class 4 storm, Melissa continues to strengthen. The storm is forecast to succeed in Category 5 standing forward of a catastrophic, multi-day strike on Jamaica with life-threatening flash flooding, landslides, harmful winds and storm surge.

Melissa's torrential rain will even set off catastrophic flooding in Haiti, and it'll later strike japanese Cuba and elements of the Bahamas.

(MORE: Track Melissa With These Maps | Melissa Could Be Jamaica's Strongest Landfall )

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By signing up you conform to the Terms & Privacy Policy . Unsubscribe at any time. Occurring Now Hurricane Melissa's middle is simply over 100 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. The hurricane's ahead velocity is roughly 5 mph, which is the principle driver behind a few of its largest threats.

Melissa already quickly intensified from a tropical storm to Class 3 hurricane in simply 12 hours from late Saturday morning by Saturday night time, then elevated to a Class 4 on Sunday morning. Melissa will proceed to strengthen much more.

( MORE: Rapid Intensification Is More Common Than You Think )

Outer bands of showers and thundershowers with heavy rain proceed to stream north throughout elements of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba. A wind gust of 46 mph was recorded in Kingston, Jamaica, Sunday afternoon.

A Class 5 Floodmaker Apart from its wind depth, Melissa's sluggish motion over the subsequent a number of days will result in prolific rainfall in elements of Haiti and Jamaica.

( MORE: Why Slow-Moving Storms Are The Worst )

The Nationwide Hurricane Middle is warning that as much as 40 inches of rain may fall in southern Hispaniola and Jamaica by Wednesday.

That torrential rainfall is more likely to set off widespread, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides, particularly in hilly and mountainous terrain.

The Nationwide Hurricane Middle warned that "intensive infrastructural injury, long-duration energy and communication outages, and probably extended isolation of communities" are doubtless in Jamaica and Haiti.

Heavy rainfall will even doubtless set off life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within the Dominican Republic and japanese Cuba.

Along with the rainfall flood menace, the NHC is forecasting a storm surge of 9 to 13 ft above floor stage east of the place Melissa is forecast to landfall alongside the southern coast of Jamaica early Tuesday.

This surge may have an effect on elements of Jamaica's capital metropolis, Kingston, together with Norman Manley Worldwide Airport, as Yale Local weather Connections' Jeff Masters noted .

<img alt="This should be interpreted as a broad forecast of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. " loading="lazy" width="320" height="180" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="shadow-md rounded-lg object-contain h-auto w-full" style="color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 91vw, (max-width: 1280px) 64vw, 800px" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=640 640w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=750 750w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=828 828w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1080 1080w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1200 1200w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1920 1920w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=2048 2048w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840 3840w" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840"/> Further Rain Forecast

Forecast The place It Might Go

Melissa will drift slowly westward by early Monday, then curl northeastward and start to maneuver quicker.

That observe will doubtless convey the core of Melissa over central or western Jamaica Tuesday, then into japanese Cuba Tuesday night time or early Wednesday, then shortly by the southeast Bahamas or Turks and Caicos Wednesday.

Past that, it is too quickly to inform if Melissa would then grow to be a menace to Bermuda late within the week.

How Sturdy?

Melissa is anticipated to prime out at Category 5 depth and will maintain a minimum of Class 4 depth at landfall in Jamaica, feeding on an ample provide of heat, deep Caribbean Sea water.

And that might make historical past.

In accordance with NOAA's historic database, although eight other Category 4 or 5 hurricanes have tracked within 60 nautical miles of Jamaica , there is no such thing as a file of such an intense hurricane making a landfall, there.

The present depth forecast for Melissa is denoted by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale classes within the forecast path graphic under.

<img alt="The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path. " loading="lazy" width="320" height="180" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="shadow-md rounded-lg object-contain h-auto w-full" style="color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 91vw, (max-width: 1280px) 64vw, 800px" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=640 640w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=750 750w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=828 828w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1080 1080w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1200 1200w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1920 1920w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=2048 2048w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840 3840w" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840"/> Present Standing, Forecast Path

Wind Hazard In accordance with the Nationwide Hurricane Middle, hurricane circumstances are anticipated in Jamaica by late Sunday or Monday and are potential in japanese Cuba Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tropical storm circumstances are already being felt on the island, and these winds may persist for a number of days as soon as they begin.

( MORE: Not Too Late In Season For An Intense Hurricane )

<img alt="The contours above show the chance of hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph), according to the latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center. " loading="lazy" width="320" height="180" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="shadow-md rounded-lg object-contain h-auto w-full" style="color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 91vw, (max-width: 1280px) 64vw, 800px" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL16_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=640 640w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL16_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=750 750w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL16_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=828 828w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL16_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1080 1080w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL16_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1200 1200w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL16_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1920 1920w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL16_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=2048 2048w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL16_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840 3840w" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL16_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840"/> Hurricane Wind Possibilities

The map under exhibits the most recent watches and warnings in impact for Melissa.

A hurricane warning means hurricane-force winds are anticipated, and tropical-storm-force winds will transfer in by Monday.

A hurricane watch means these circumstances are potential inside 48 hours.

A tropical storm warning means tropical storm circumstances are anticipated by Monday night time.

These alerts presently cowl elements of southern Haiti, Jamaica and japanese Cuba.

In accordance with the Nationwide Hurricane Middle, these winds, along with widespread flash flooding, are more likely to result in intensive infrastructural injury, long-duration energy and communication outages and probably extended isolation of communities.

<img alt="A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. " loading="lazy" width="320" height="180" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="shadow-md rounded-lg object-contain h-auto w-full" style="color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 91vw, (max-width: 1280px) 64vw, 800px" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_ww1_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=640 640w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_ww1_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=750 750w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_ww1_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=828 828w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_ww1_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1080 1080w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_ww1_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1200 1200w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_ww1_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1920 1920w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_ww1_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=2048 2048w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_ww1_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840 3840w" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_ww1_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840"/> Watches And Warnings

Quantity 13 Tropical Storm Melissa shaped late Tuesday morning, the thirteenth storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. By Saturday afternoon, it grew to become the season's fifth hurricane.

That is roughly on par with the typical date of the thirteenth storm from 1991 by 2020 (Oct. 25), based on the Nationwide Hurricane Middle. It is also one storm shy of the typical variety of storms for a complete season, 14.

Nonetheless, it was virtually a month later than the typical fifth hurricane date of September 28.

<img alt="Atlantic hurricane season names through Melissa" loading="lazy" width="320" height="180" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="shadow-md rounded-lg object-contain h-auto w-full" style="color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 91vw, (max-width: 1280px) 64vw, 800px" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/2025%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Names%20melissa.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=640 640w, https://s.w-x.co/2025%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Names%20melissa.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=750 750w, https://s.w-x.co/2025%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Names%20melissa.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=828 828w, https://s.w-x.co/2025%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Names%20melissa.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1080 1080w, https://s.w-x.co/2025%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Names%20melissa.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1200 1200w, https://s.w-x.co/2025%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Names%20melissa.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1920 1920w, https://s.w-x.co/2025%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Names%20melissa.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=2048 2048w, https://s.w-x.co/2025%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Names%20melissa.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840 3840w" src="https://s.w-x.co/2025%20Atlantic%20Tropical%20Names%20melissa.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840"/> The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season names listing. These storm names used up have already got test marks subsequent to them.

Melissa can be the primary storm of the season to trace into the Caribbean Sea. As you possibly can see within the season-to-date tracks map under, most different storms and hurricanes have curled north of the Caribbean Sea this season.

That is due both to steering winds within the Atlantic, or hostile circumstances for growth within the Caribbean Sea previous to Melissa.

<img alt="" loading="lazy" width="320" height="180" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="shadow-md rounded-lg object-contain h-auto w-full" style="color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 91vw, (max-width: 1280px) 64vw, 800px" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=640 640w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=750 750w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=828 828w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1080 1080w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1200 1200w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=1920 1920w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=2048 2048w, https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840 3840w" src="https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL17_1280x720.jpg?format=auto&optimize=medium&width=3840"/> 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracks To Date

Examine again with us at climate.com for the most recent forecast updates on Melissa, and elsewhere within the tropics.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at climate.com and has been overlaying nationwide and worldwide climate since 1996. Excessive and weird climate are his favourite matters. Attain out to him on Bluesky , X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook .