Toplines
Russian forces are intensifying offensive operations in and round Pokrovsk to grab the city. Geolocated footage revealed on October 31 and November 1 signifies that Russian forces lately superior in central and southeastern Pokrovsk.[1] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces additionally superior in central Pokrovsk past what the geolocated footage helps, in northeastern Pokrovsk, and northeast of Kotlyne (southwest of Pokrovsk).[2] A senior officer of a Ukrainian brigade working within the Pokrovsk course advised Ukrainian outlet Hromadske on October 31 that Russian forces are working in roughly 60 % of Pokrovsk and have entered Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk) and Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk).[3] Geolocated footage revealed on October 31 and November 1 signifies that Ukrainian forces maintained positions or lately superior in central Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk), an space the place Russian sources beforehand claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[4] The chief sergeant of a Ukrainian brigade working to the east within the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical space (northeast of Pokrovsk) reported on November 1 that Russian forces considerably decreased offensive operations within the Kostyantynivka course after a failed mechanized assault on October 27 and instructed that Russian forces could have redeployed forces from this course to strengthen Russian efforts towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.[5] A Ukrainian drone operator working in Pokrovsk indicated to Hromadske that Russian forces are tactically isolating some Ukrainian positions.[6] The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade working within the Pokrovsk course advised Hromadske that Ukrainian logistics within the course are “difficult” however that Russian forces haven’t minimize Ukrainian floor strains of communication (GLOCs). A Ukrainian servicemember working in Myrnohrad advised Hromadske that the Russian forces working in northern Pokrovsk and northeastern Myrnohrad “really feel fully comfy” and that Russian first-person view (FPV) drone operators are inside vary to interdict Ukrainian GLOCs connecting Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. An officer of a Ukrainian unit working in Myrnohrad advised Hromadske that Russian forces have virtually full fireplace management over the slim Ukrainian GLOC supplying Myrnohrad. The porous nature of the frontline and ubiquity of drones on this space proceed to obscure the tactical image in Pokrovsk, and ISW will present an up to date evaluation because the state of affairs turns into clearer.
Ukrainian forces performed a heliborne air assault operation west of Pokrovsk on October 31. The Ukrainian seventh Speedy Response Corps of the Air Assault Forces reported on November 1 that Ukrainian forces performed a profitable air assault operation close to Pokrovsk.[7] Ukrainian Fundamental Navy Intelligence Directorate (GUR) sources advised Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on October 31 that components of the GUR Particular Forces performed the operation, which concerned a number of helicopters, and entered areas that the Russian army command beforehand claimed to have seized.[8] The GUR sources acknowledged that these areas are critically necessary for Ukrainian logistics within the Pokrovsk course. Geolocated footage revealed on October 31 exhibits Ukrainian servicemembers disembarking from a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter west of Pokrovsk in an space the place Russian sources beforehand claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[9] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed on November 1 that Russian forces repelled the Ukrainian counterattack.[10] A Russian milblogger famous on November 1 that the flexibility of Ukrainian helicopters to penetrate into airspace saturated with Russian drones with out sustaining losses “raises questions,” presumably concerning the power of the Russian air protection umbrella within the Pokrovsk course.[11]
Shut fight, city terrain, and climate situations are impacting Ukrainian and Russian drone warfare and Russian infiltration techniques in and round Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian officer advised Hromadske on October 31 that Ukrainian infantry working on the ahead edges don’t often interact Russian forces in shut fight, as Russian forces as a substitute interact Ukrainian drone and mortar crews in close to rear areas.[12] ISW has lately noticed reviews that Russian infiltration teams are intentionally participating Ukrainian drone and artillery crews in Pokrovsk to inhibit Ukrainian strikes.[13] A Ukrainian drone operator advised Hromadske that the specter of Russian infiltration teams is forcing Ukrainian drone operators to restrict the length of drone flights as a result of the drone operators even have to interact in small arms fight to repel Russian infiltrations within the close to rear.[14] The Ukrainian drone operator acknowledged that fixed Russian infiltrations into Pokrovsk are forcing Ukrainian forces to tug again the second echelon of drone operators, stopping Ukrainian forces from putting Russian forces on the outskirts of Pokrovsk. A high-ranking Ukrainian officer advised Hromadske that about 30 to 40 Russian personnel can infiltrate into Pokrovsk when wet or foggy climate inhibits Ukrainian drone operations, whereas not more than 10 Russian troopers can infiltrate throughout honest climate when Ukrainian forces can function drones. ISW has noticed reviews that Russian forces intensify infiltration efforts throughout poor climate and that precipitation inhibits each Russian and Ukrainian drone operations.[15] One other Ukrainian drone pilot indicated to Hromadske that Russian and Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk are combating for management over high-rise buildings and elevated terrain from which to conduct drone operations, notably towards enemy GLOCs at a distance of 30 kilometers.[16]
Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Moscow Oblast on the evening of October 31 to November 1. The Ukrainian Fundamental Navy Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Ukrainian forces struck three strains of the Koltsevoy oil refinery in Ramensky Raion, Moscow Oblast, and geolocated footage revealed on October 31 exhibits explosions on the pipeline.[17] The GUR reported that the Koltsevoy pipeline is 400 kilometers lengthy and transports gas from the Ryazan, Novgorod, and Moscow oil refineries. The GUR reported that the Koltsevoy pipeline may pump as much as 7.4 million tons of gas yearly, together with three million tons of aviation gas, 2.8 million tons of diesel gas, and 1.6 million tons of gasoline. The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed that Russian forces downed 11 drones over Moscow Oblast in a single day.[18]
Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian reconnaissance plane over the Baltic Sea for the third time in three days, and German officers reported an unidentified drone incursion close to the Berlin Brandenburg Airport. The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command reported on October 31 that two Polish MiG-29 fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane in worldwide airspace over the Baltic Sea on October 31.[19] The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command famous that the Russian plane was working with no registered flight plan or an energetic transponder however didn’t violate Polish airspace. Polish fighter jets additionally intercepted Russian reconnaissance plane on October 29 and 30.[20] German authorities on the Berlin Brandenburg Airport confirmed on November 1 that German police noticed an unidentified drone flying close to the airport on the night of October 31, forcing the airport to droop flights for 2 hours and divert 11 plane.[21]
Russian authorities proceed cracking down on Russian social media sources who share insider details about the Kremlin and Russian safety providers. Russian insider channel VChK-OGPU-Data reported on October 31 that Telegram directors blocked the principle VChK-OGPU channel on the behest of Russian authorities for alleged “doxxing and extortion.”[22] VChK-OGPU-Data claimed that Telegram eliminated different channels thought of “irritants” to Russian legislation enforcement and intelligence businesses and that solely Telegram administration may have eliminated the account from Telegram. The channel additionally claimed that Russian forces detained one of many channel’s authors in St. Petersburg on October 30. VChK-OGPU claims to have sources affiliated with Russian legislation enforcement and has provided purported insights into Kremlin factional dynamics, inner assessments of Russian authorities insurance policies, vital modifications within the Russian MoD, and leaks of knowledge relating to the MoD and Russian army.[23]
The Kremlin seemingly focused VChK-OGPU as a part of a wider effort to cleanse the Russian info house of sources that publish info that the Kremlin deems threatening to the regime’s stability. Telegram first deleted the VChK-OGPU channel and several other different channels in April 2025, reportedly on the behest of Russian authorities, forcing VChK-OGPU to depend on a backup.[24] Russian legislation enforcement additionally detained three workers of the state-owned Ural regional info company Ura.ru in June 2025 for allegedly receiving funding from a company designated as a international agent and bribing Russian legislation enforcement to acquire delicate inner reviews.[25] Russian authorities raided in late July 2025 the places of work of Baza, a Russian outlet affiliated with Russian legislation enforcement, as a part of an abuse of energy investigation towards Russian law enforcement officials who allegedly disclosed delicate info to Baza.[26] Each publications notably maintained relations inside Russia’s inner authorities techniques and beforehand revealed info that the Russian authorities seemingly hoped to withhold from home and international audiences.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces are intensifying offensive operations in and round Pokrovsk to grab the city.
- Ukrainian forces performed a heliborne air assault operation west of Pokrovsk on October 31.
- Shut fight, city terrain, and climate situations are impacting Ukrainian and Russian drone warfare and Russian infiltration techniques in and round Pokrovsk.
- Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Moscow Oblast on the evening of October 31 to November 1.
- Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian reconnaissance plane over the Baltic Sea for the third time in three days, and German officers reported an unidentified drone incursion close to the Berlin Brandenburg Airport.
- Russian authorities proceed cracking down on Russian social media sources who share insider details about the Kremlin and Russian safety providers.
- Ukrainian forces lately superior close to Lyman. Russian forces lately superior close to Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, and Pokrovsk.
We don’t report intimately on Russian battle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t straight have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to judge and report on the consequences of those legal actions on the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We completely condemn Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle and the Geneva Conventions and crimes towards humanity although we don’t describe them in these reviews.
Ukrainian Operations in The Russian Federation
See topline textual content.
Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis
Russian goal: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine alongside the worldwide border
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on November 1 however didn’t make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that Russian forces superior to the western outskirts of Kindrativka (north of Sumy Metropolis).[27]
Preventing continued in Kursk and Sumy oblasts, together with north of Sumy Metropolis close to Andriivka and Kindrativka, on October 31 and November 1.[28] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Stepne (northwest of Sumy Metropolis) and Varachyne (north of Sumy Metropolis).[29]
Ukrainian digital and radio warfare skilled Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported on November 1 that Russian forces used a Molniya mothership unmanned aerial car (UAV) with two first-person view (FPV) drones to strike a minibus in Mykolaivka (west of Sumy Metropolis) about 36 kilometers from the frontline.[30] Beskrestnov famous that Russian forces management the Molniya mothership drones through native cellular web networks and fly these motherships via areas with steady cellular protection earlier than dropping the FPVs roughly 5 to 10 kilometers from the goal.[31]
The Russian milblogger, reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces, claimed that the Russian army command intentionally continues to refuse to rotate servicemembers of the Russian 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and reportedly underneath the operational management of the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces) close to Bezsalivka (northwest of Sumy Metropolis).[32]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Prizrak Group are reportedly putting Ukrainian positions close to Mykilske (northeast of Sumy Metropolis).[33] FPV drone operators of the 83rd Separate Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly working within the Sumy course.[34]
Russian Fundamental Effort: Japanese Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Fundamental Effort #1
Russian goal: Push Ukrainian forces again from the worldwide border with Belgorod Oblast and method to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Metropolis.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on November 1 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces attacked north of Kharkiv Metropolis towards Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis close to Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, and Synelnykove on October 31 and November 1.[35]
A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces revealed footage purportedly supplied by and displaying servicemembers of the Russian 1009th Motorized Rifle Regiment (69th Motorized Rifle Division, sixth Mixed Arms Military [CAA], Leningrad Navy District [LMD]), working in Vovchansk, filtering rainwater from puddles as a result of Russian logistics failures.[36] The milblogger claimed the Russian army command fails to evacuate the our bodies of Russian servicemembers killed in motion (KIA).
Russian forces lately superior within the Velykyi Burluk course.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on November 1 signifies that Russian forces lately superior north of Ambarne (northeast of Velykyi Burluk).[37]
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces superior between Odradne (northeast of Velykyi Burluk) and Bolohivka (east of Velykyi Burluk).[38]
Russian forces attacked northeast of Velykyi Burluk close to Khatnie and east of Velykyi Burluk towards Dvorichanske on October 31 and November 1.[39]
The Russian Northern Grouping of Forces revealed footage on November 1 reportedly displaying Russian forces conducting TOS-1A thermobaric artillery strikes towards Ukrainian forces close to Novouzhvynivka (southeast of Velykyi Burluk).[40]
Russian Subordinate Fundamental Effort #2
Russian goal: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into jap Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Kupyansk course on November 1 however didn’t make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces superior into central Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk) and towards the Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi railway station (south of Kupyansk).[41]
Russian forces attacked close to and inside Kupyansk itself; northeast of Kupyansk close to Kamyanka and towards Kolodyazne; east of Kupyansk close to Petropavlivka; and southeast of Kupyansk close to Pishchane and towards Novoosynove on October 31 and November 1.[42] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) and a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Yuvileynyi Microraion and different areas inside Kupyansk itself, close to Osynovo (south of Kupyansk) and Velyka Shapkivka, and towards Myrove (each northwest of Kupyansk) and Holubivka (north of Kupyansk).[43]
Order of Battle: Parts of the Russian 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (forty seventh Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Military [GTA], Moscow Navy District [MMD]) reportedly proceed to function within the Kupyansk course.[44]
Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Borova towards Novoplatonivka on October 31 and November 1 however didn’t advance.[45]
Ukrainian forces lately superior within the Lyman course.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on October 31 signifies that Ukrainian forces lately superior in northeastern Yampil (southeast of Lyman).[46]
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces superior between Yampil and Lyman.[47]
Russian forces attacked towards Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman close to Derylove, Korovii Yar, and Karpivka; north of Lyman close to Stavky; and east of Lyman close to Maslyakivka and Torske on October 31 and November 1.[48]
A Ukrainian drone unit working within the Lyman course reported on November 1 that Russian forces are attacking on foot and utilizing fewer autos within the Lyman course.[49]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Hyperion Unmanned Methods Battalion (twenty fifth Mixed Arms Military [CAA], Central Navy District [CMD]) are putting Ukrainian positions in northeastern Yampil.[50] A number of rocket launch system (MLRS) components of the first) are reportedly putting Ukrainian positions and tools within the Lyman course.[51]
Russian Subordinate Fundamental Effort #3
Russian goal: Seize the whole thing of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Siversk course on November 1 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces attacked northwest of Siversk close to Dronivka; northeast of Siversk close to Serebryanka; southeast of Siversk close to Vyimka; and south of Siversk close to Pereizne and Fedorivka on October 31 and November 1.[52]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical space on November 1 however didn’t make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on October 31 that components of the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (third Mixed Arms Military [CAA], previously 2nd Luhansk Individuals’s Republic Military Corps [LNR AC], Southern Navy District [SMD]) seized the St. Matrona Moskovska mine (southeast of Kostyantynivka and northwest of Toretsk).[53] Russian sources beforehand claimed that Russian forces seized the mine on June 8, that Ukrainian forces retook the mine on July 18, and that Russian forces seized the mine on October 29.[54]
Russian forces attacked close to Kostyantynivka itself; northeast of Kostyantynivka close to Chasiv Yar; east of Kostyantynivka close to Predtechyne; southeast of Kostyantynivka close to Shcherbynivka, Nelipivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleshchiivka, and Toretsk; south of Kostyantynivka towards Berestok; south of Druzhkivka close to Rusyn Yar; and southwest of Druzhkivka close to Sofiivka.[55]
The senior non-commissioned officer (NCO) of a Ukrainian brigade working within the Kostyantynivka course reported that Russian forces working close to Kostyantynivka have reverted to small group infiltration techniques after sustaining heavy losses throughout a failed October 27 battalion-sized mechanized assault.[56] The NCO added that Ukrainian forces captured three prisoners of battle (POWs) from the Russian 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (twentieth Motorized Rifle Division, eighth Mixed Arms Military [CAA], Southern Navy District [SMD]) close to Kostyantynivka.
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on October 31 that Russian forces are unable to totally consolidate lately seized positions within the Kostyantynivka course as a result of Ukrainian interdiction of Russian floor strains of communication (GLOCs).[57]
Kostyantynivka Navy Administration Head Serhiy Horbunov reported on November 1 that Russian forces performed an FAB-250 glide bomb strike towards Kostyantynivka, injuring one civilian and damaging residential infrastructure.[58]
Order of Battle: First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the thirty third Motorized Rifle Regiment (twentieth Motorized Rifle Division) are reportedly intercepting Ukrainian drones within the Kostyantynivka course.[59] FPV drone operators of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the twentieth Motorized Rifle Division are reportedly putting Ukrainian autos close to Kramatorsk.[60] Drone operators of the 238th Artillery Brigade (eighth CAA) reportedly proceed to strike Ukrainian forces close to Torske (southwest of Druzhkivka) with Lancet loitering munitions.[61]
Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Dobropillya close to Shakhove and southeast of Dobropillya close to Zapovidne on October 31 and November 1, however didn’t advance.[62]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian thirty third Motorized Rifle Regiment are reportedly working fiber optic drones within the Dobropillya course.[63]
Russian forces lately superior within the Pokrovsk course.
See topline textual content for info on assessed Russian and Ukrainian advances within the Pokrovsk course.
Russian forces attacked close to Pokrovsk itself; northwest of Pokrovsk close to Hryshyne; northeast of Pokrovsk close to Krasnyi Lyman, Mykolaivka, and Novoekonomichne; east of Pokrovsk close to Myrnohrad and Kozatske; southeast of Pokrovsk close to Lysivka, Udachne, and Sukhyi Yar; south of Pokrovsk close to Novoukrainka; and southwest of Pokrovsk close to Zvirove, Udachne, Novopavlivka, and Molodetske on October 31 and November 1.[64] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking close to Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Hryshyne, Sukhetske (northeast of Pokrovsk), and Rodynske.[65]
Order of Battle: FPV drone operators of the Russian 56th Separate Spetsnaz Battalion and the ninth Motorized Rifle Brigade (each of the 51st CAA, previously 1st Donetsk Individuals’s Republic Military Corps [DNR AC], SMD) are reportedly putting Ukrainian army autos close to Rodynske and Vasylivka (northwest of Pokrovsk).[66] FPV drone operators of the thirtieth Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, Central Navy District [CMD]) and unspecified drone operators of the Irlandtsy Strike Detachment of the Grom-Kaskad Drone Brigade are reportedly working close to Pokrovsk.[67] Parts of the fifth Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) are reportedly working in northern, jap, and southeastern Myrnohrad.[68]
Russian forces continued offensive operations southeast of Novopavlivka close to Dachne and south of Novopavlivka close to Filiya on October 31 and November 1, however didn’t advance.[69]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Velykomykhailivka course on November 1 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces attacked east of Velykomykhailivka close to Sichneve; southeast of Velykomykhailivka close to Sosnivka, Vorone, and Ternove; south of Velykomykhailivka close to Stepove and towards Orestopil; and southwest of Velykomykhailivka close to Oleksiivka, Danylivka, Vyshneve, and Verbove on October 31 and November 1.[70]
Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis
Russian goal: Preserve frontline positions, safe rear areas towards Ukrainian strikes, and advance inside tube artillery vary of Zaporizhzhia Metropolis
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Hulyaipole course on November 1 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces continued offensive operations north of Hulyaipole close to Krasnohirske and towards Rybne; northeast of Hulyaipole close to Pavlivka and Novomykolaivka and towards Nove; and east of Hulyaipole close to Zelenyi Hai on October 31 and November 1.[71]
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