A reporter outlines Trump’s choices to subvert the 2026 midterm elections : NPR

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TONYA MOSLEY, HOST:

That is FRESH AIR. I am Tonya Mosley. This week, voters throughout the nation went to the polls for a handful of particular and native elections. And the end result is that Democrats gained large and small races in what was seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump. However whereas folks had been governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia and the mayoral race in New York, it was that poll initiative in California that will have the largest preview of what is to return main as much as the 2026 midterm elections. Proposition 50 permits California Democrats to redraw congressional maps to doubtlessly win 5 extra seats. The measure handed by an enormous margin, after which Governor Gavin Newsom made it clear what he feels ought to occur subsequent.

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GAVIN NEWSOM: My name tonight, within the spirit of Whitman, who talked in regards to the highly effective play goes on - all of us should contribute a verse. And so we want the state of Virginia. We want the state of Maryland. We want our pals in New York and Illinois and Colorado. We have to see different states with their exceptional leaders which were doing exceptional issues meet this second head on as properly to acknowledge what we're up towards in 2026. And let me make this crystal clear. We will de facto finish Donald Trump's presidency as we all know it. The minute Speaker Jeffries will get sworn in as speaker of the Home of Representatives, it's all on the road, a vibrant line in 2026.

MOSLEY: Even when the poll is small, the stakes can nonetheless really feel massive, and so they're usually a preview of what is to return. The well being and way forward for American elections, significantly subsequent 12 months's midterms, are on the middle of journalist David Graham's newest reporting for The Atlantic. In his piece titled "Donald Trump's Plan To Subvert The Midterms Is Already Underway," Graham explores how the groundwork is already being laid for the battle within the 2026 midterms, from new voting restrictions and authorized challenges to the methods political leaders are reshaping the methods that govern elections themselves. His reporting attracts on conversations with election officers and authorized consultants and people on the entrance strains of administering the vote. Graham is a workers author at The Atlantic and writer of The Atlantic Every day publication. He is additionally the writer of "The Challenge: How Challenge 2025 Is Reshaping America And The World." David Graham, welcome again to FRESH AIR.

DAVID GRAHAM: Thanks for having me.

MOSLEY: First off, your response to this week's victories for the Democrats.

GRAHAM: I feel what's notable right here isn't just that Democrats gained, however the margins by which they gained. You realize, we noticed, for instance, in New Jersey, a governor's race that many individuals thought may be shut, however it was one thing like 13 factors. So I feel it's a signal of rejection of loads of Trump's priorities by voters who both had been a little bit bit blase in regards to the 2024 election or perhaps even prepared to vote for Trump then. And one factor that I feel Trump has actually achieved is made voters extra engaged and made them pay nearer consideration. I feel that was one thing that was an element on this week's election. Individuals are turning out at a excessive degree. You realize, New York Metropolis mayoral turnout was very excessive. It is a very political second.

MOSLEY: Properly, President Trump has stated on Reality Social because the outcomes got here in that the losses had been as a result of he wasn't on the poll. Your reporting suggests the massive query is not can Democrats win, however whether or not they'll be allowed to win in 2026. As we glance in direction of the midterms, what ought to Individuals perceive in regards to the distinction between Tuesday's outcomes and what you are warning may occur within the midterms?

GRAHAM: I feel there's a number of issues which can be vital. The primary one is solely scale. These elections are an vital bellwether for 2026 and so they provide us some early indications, however they are not what is going to decide management of the Home. And so we'll see rather more focus from the White Home on what it will probably do to tip the scales in favor of Republican candidates. The stakes are a lot larger for Trump, who would not need to see his agenda stymied by a Democratic Home and can also be nervous in regards to the prospect of a attainable third impeachment. So I feel the stakes shall be larger and the alternatives for dangerous actors to intrude shall be many extra.

MOSLEY: You realize, what occurred with California Prop 50 was in response to what occurred in Texas, the place Texas Governor Greg Abbott did the very same factor - known as a particular session to redraw maps to seize 5 GOP seats. What are we seeing in GOP-led states? Is that this additionally one thing that's being pushed for to redraw these maps?

GRAHAM: Yeah. So it isn't simply Texas. We have additionally seen new maps in Missouri. We noticed a brand new map in North Carolina. We noticed a brand new map in Ohio, which makes two at present Democratic districts rather more purple. And there is an ongoing battle in Indiana, and I feel that is such an fascinating case, the place the White Home has been pressuring Indiana Republicans to redraw their maps. And there is actual resistance on the state degree from legislators who do not need to do that. And so that you see them in actual time making an attempt to withstand stress from the White Home. I feel who wins that shall be a helpful signal for simply how successfully the White Home can stress folks. However it does really feel like an arms race the place each side try to squeeze as many districts as they will and, I feel, you realize, on the Democratic facet, the place Democrats really feel like they're pressured to take up strategies that they've previously rejected. So Trump makes everybody behave a little bit bit extra like him.

MOSLEY: And we're simply speaking a few handful of seats. So there's loads at stake for each side.

GRAHAM: Yeah. I imply, it will be, by all accounts, a really shut election. If Trump did not suppose it was an in depth election, he wouldn't be pressuring Texas to squeeze just a few seats right here or North Carolina to squeeze a seat there. If the margin of victory is - I do not know - perhaps 10 seats, consultants informed me they suppose it is fairly arduous to steal that form of election. But when it is solely three or 5 seats, it is a lot simpler to have shenanigans that solid doubt on issues and attempt to flip the end result and to defy voters' will.

MOSLEY: This week, anecdotally, we have seen reporting of strains wrapped across the nook for this particular election. Individuals appeared to return out to vote. We had been additionally forewarned that the Justice Division could be sending election displays to a handful of polling locations in California and New Jersey, and there was reporting that some people noticed these displays. Have you ever heard phrase of what occurred with these displays? And likewise, are you able to form of discuss why significantly having displays come to such a election cycle is so uncommon?

GRAHAM: Yeah. DOJ has election displays, and so they do control some races. However what's totally different right here is the form of races they're selecting and what the Justice Division appears to concentrate on. Traditionally, the Justice Division has been very involved about voter suppression, and it has been locations the place that has traditionally been a problem. What we see in these circumstances this 12 months is the Justice Division going to locations which can be vital elections for Democrats, so, for instance, the New Jersey governor's race, which was anticipated to be pretty shut, or to California, the place there may be this vital referendum on redistricting, and placing displays there. So there is a concern about intimidation the place there isn't any actual menace of, you realize, issues with elections.

And likewise, I feel consultants see this as a little bit little bit of a dry run for 2026 the place the Justice Division begins sending out displays now to get folks accustomed to the thought. Then they ship out extra displays doubtlessly subsequent 12 months, and there is the place you begin to fear about intimidation or stress on native officers or on voters as properly, who could not need to take care of inconvenience or could really feel that there is some type of menace to them.

MOSLEY: Your piece really begins off with this made-up however very particular state of affairs set a 12 months to any extent further Election Day in Maricopa County in Arizona. On this made-up state of affairs, you say CE brokers are at polling locations. Marines have seized voting machines, and the invocation of martial regulation has occurred. How life like is that this state of affairs, and why did you select significantly Maricopa County as a spot for it?

GRAHAM: I checked out Maricopa as a result of it is an ideal spot for lots of those questions. There aren't that many aggressive districts within the Home at this level as a result of so many states have already gerrymandered. However in - round Maricopa County, there are two districts which can be anticipated to be very aggressive in subsequent 12 months's elections. And it is also a purple state the place you possibly can think about loads of focus from each events. And it is a state the place you've each Republican and Democratic officers who shall be influential in that race and the place Trump has tried to intrude previously.

I do not understand how life like it's, however I feel every part that I lay out on this state of affairs is one thing that consultants informed me may occur and one thing that they need to be ready for. And that is perhaps the worst-case state of affairs the place you've, for instance, the presence of Marines coming in, the place you've the FBI getting concerned, or you've voting machines getting seized. However these are all issues that Trump or his allies have talked about or thought-about and issues that match with form of actions which have taken place to date.

MOSLEY: Discuss to us in regards to the realities for election officers all the best way all the way down to ballot employees. I imply, they've had a tough time the previous couple of elections. You inform tales about them getting loss of life threats, having to get restraining orders.

GRAHAM: Yeah. It is superb the best way American elections work. And in some methods, it is superb they work so properly, that they depend upon a patchwork of native officers with totally different legal guidelines in each state, totally different guidelines in several counties. They require volunteers. They require people who find themselves poorly paid and who've change into actual targets for harassment, significantly in the previous couple of years. A pair issues have occurred because of that harassment. We have seen an exodus of skilled election officers, individuals who merely do not need to have these jobs. They go and so they do one thing else. We have seen threats towards them. Meaning they've to fret extra about safety and spend much less time on the type of primary administration of elections that they need to do. We have seen stress campaigns towards these folks.

So, you realize, on one degree, we noticed President Trump in 2020 calling, for instance, the Georgia secretary of state and asking him to seek out nearly 12,000 votes. However we additionally had folks in Trump's orbit calling native officers and making an attempt to stress them to alter issues. We noticed the form of public harassment of individuals just like the native officers in Maricopa County. And that makes it very arduous for election officers to do their job. It, you realize, detracts from what they're doing. They're additionally going through funding cuts, together with cuts for safety - cybersecurity and bodily safety - from the federal authorities. So actually, in each method, the work of those election officers has gotten loads more durable.

MOSLEY: You really spoke with a former Maricopa County recorder, and so they informed you that standing as much as Trump was extremely lonely and that only a few folks could have your again, particularly in case you're Republican. That specific recorder, Stephen Richer, he misplaced his major to a MAGA candidate. What does that inform us in regards to the incentive construction for Republicans who would possibly need to defend election integrity?

GRAHAM: I feel this exhibits why Republicans both could be reluctant to face up for Trump or just won't run for these sorts of workplaces. Stephen Richer is an fascinating character as a result of he's forthrightly conservative. His politics are conservative, however he is additionally any person who cares loads about elections and about fact. And when Trump was claiming that the Maricopa County elections in 2020 had been tainted by fraud, he stood up together with a number of different elected Republicans within the space and stated, no, these elections had been truthful. And for that, he turned a goal of in depth harassment, you realize, by people, by - he was attacked in conservative media. After which he misplaced this marketing campaign.

In order that's each, you realize, a warning that you just should not get out over your skis in case you're one among these Republicans and you will not be supported by different Republicans. But in addition, folks like that aren't going to run for the workplaces that oversee native elections in the event that they know that they cannot win and that they're going to change into targets.

MOSLEY: Our visitor at this time is David Graham, workers author at The Atlantic. Our interview was recorded yesterday morning. And after our dialogue, California Republicans filed a lawsuit difficult the redistricting maps voters authorised as unconstitutional. We'll proceed our dialog after a brief break. That is FRESH AIR.

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MOSLEY: That is FRESH AIR, and at this time we're speaking to journalist David Graham, whose current reporting for The Atlantic appears at how efforts to reshape election methods and narratives are already influencing the political panorama forward of the 2026 midterms.

Fascinated with Trump's energy over the media, you - in your Maricopa state of affairs, the place you venture what may occur subsequent 12 months in the course of the midterms, you describe how conservative retailers would doubtless be operating wall-to-wall protection alleging fraud, providing tales of immigrants being bussed to voting places. And this a part of that state of affairs will not be hypothesis as a result of we really noticed variations of that in 2020. Trump, although, now has much more management over the knowledge ecosystem. Are you able to speak a little bit bit about what's totally different this time, about how shortly false narratives can unfold?

GRAHAM: I feel we have seen a significant shift in loads of methods. So one factor that - is that in 2020, Fox Information was, for essentially the most half, skeptical of Trump's claims of fraud. And what Fox noticed was that once they solid doubt on them, viewers began fleeing to different, extra Trump-friendly retailers. So I do not suppose we'll see Fox do this once more as a result of they did not - they do not need to lose their viewers. In order that's an vital factor. However then you definately begin extra historically mainstream retailers. There is a hazard.

Trump has threatened CBS and Paramount. He is threatened ABC and put loads of stress on them, as we have seen. The brand new proprietor of CBS is the son of a Trump donor. Trump has indicated he is very proud of the possession of CBS, however he is additionally stated that he - you realize, he is sued them earlier than and he would sue them once more, and that it means they will be nicer to him. He stated this simply on "60 Minutes" just a few days in the past. So he clearly believes that he can bully the press, and I feel there are indicators that he is been profitable in doing that.

After which lastly, you take a look at different media. So in 2020, for instance, Twitter and Fb had been actually energetic in flattening misinformation and disinformation about voter fraud. We have seen them pull again on any of that type of misinfo, disinfo regulation effort since then, partially due to stress from Trump and his aides. So we won't anticipate these retailers to be doing something to assist voters get readability. And we additionally see TikTok, which can be offered to folks pleasant to the president as properly and is a significant supply of data. So, you realize, the entire ecosystem of data appears to have shifted fairly drastically since that 2020 election.

MOSLEY: We all know that President Trump has asserted energy over elections by means of govt orders, demanding proof of citizenship to vote, which is already required, insisting that solely ballots obtained by Election Day be counted no matter state regulation. Federal judges have blocked these orders. One decide even stated that the Structure would not grant the president any particular powers over elections. However you write in your piece that that won't matter. Are you able to break that down?

GRAHAM: Proper. Federal election regulation is a little bit bit complicated. However Congress has some energy over elections, setting election legal guidelines. However the president merely would not have a task in it. And that is one thing that it isn't within the Structure, it isn't within the regulation, and courts have acknowledged that for a very long time. Trump has tried to answer that by merely asserting energy. So for instance, we have seen him difficulty an govt order the place he does issues like mandate that states do not depend any ballots postmarked however obtained after Election Day as a result of he says there's just one Election Day. He is requested the Election Help Fee to decertify voting machines due to form of spurious claims that they may be insecure.

So within the absence of actual authorized authority, he is merely saying these items and daring somebody to inform him no. And we have seen courts knock a few of these issues down. But in addition, you realize, native election officers could heed what he is doing. And even when they do not, it creates a priority about fraud. And he is tried for years to make voters doubt the end result even earlier than the votes have been counted.

MOSLEY: You've got recommended that North Carolina particularly is form of just like the canary within the election coal mine. Are you able to clarify that?

GRAHAM: Certain. I feel we will see, excluding navy deployments, lots of the potentialities for a way, a playbook for a way you would possibly intrude with nationwide elections. So in North Carolina, we've seen, for instance, efforts for years to suppress votes by doing issues like lowering early voting hours or introducing restricted voter ID. We've seen years of gerrymandering by each events to attempt to make sure that, you realize, elections are slanted, most just lately by Republicans who're in energy. We have seen a partisan takeover of the state board of elections, changing a type of skilled election administrator with a Republican lawyer.

And all of these items have an effect on the principles forward of time. You then get to Election Day, the place you've potential vote suppression. You may have claims of fraud. So in an election in 2016, we noticed lawsuits that had been actually form of a harbinger of Trump's claims in 2020, saying there was fraud in main Democratic jurisdictions with out offering loads of proof of that. After which in 2024, we noticed a state Supreme Courtroom race by which the Democratic incumbent gained a slender however strong victory and her Republican opponent tried to get hundreds of votes thrown out.

Everybody agreed that the voters had adopted guidelines however believed that their registrations had been invalid due to officers' errors, needed these votes thrown out and nearly was profitable within the state courtroom system, getting fellow Republican judges to rule for him. And it was solely stopped when a federal courtroom dominated towards him, and that was when the Democrat was lastly capable of be sworn in. So you possibly can see this effort from properly earlier than the election, proper as much as Election Day after which even after the election to do something you possibly can to win the seats in any respect prices.

MOSLEY: You realize, what's so fascinating as properly is that, on the identical time, the governor in North Carolina is a Democrat. So how a lot energy does he have with state elections?

GRAHAM: This can be a nice query as a result of they've stripped loads of his energy. Till this 12 months, the state board of elections was beneath the management of the governor. They moved that energy from the governor to the state auditor, who's a newly elected Republican official. Additionally, in North Carolina, election maps, redistricting is totally beneath management of the legislature, and the governor has no position. In order that's additionally allowed them to go across the governor. The result's we've maps the place though this state is, North Carolina is pretty intently divided between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans maintain close to supermajorities in each homes of the state legislature, and so they have an enormous benefit within the U.S. Home delegation as properly.

MOSLEY: Let's take a brief break. Should you're simply becoming a member of us, my visitor is David Graham from The Atlantic. And we're speaking about his reporting on election methods and political energy forward of the 2026 midterms and what these efforts reveal in regards to the present state of American democracy. We'll be proper again after a brief break. I am Tonya Mosley and that is FRESH AIR.

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MOSLEY: That is FRESH AIR. I am Tonya Mosley. And at this time, I am speaking with David Graham, a workers author at The Atlantic, who covers politics and nationwide affairs. His current piece, Donald Trump's Plan To Subvert The Midterms Is Already Underway, undermines how political leaders and establishments are shaping, and in some circumstances straining the foundations of American democracy as we transfer towards the 2026 midterms. I need to delve into your stories in regards to the deployment of the navy. We have seen the acceleration as you stated, that many consultants did not anticipate till 2028, Are you able to delve a little bit bit deeper into how that acceleration occurred?

GRAHAM: It is occurred in a bunch of the way, and it has been fascinating to see the methods by which Trump has justified deploying navy. In Los Angeles, initially, it was to help ICE operations. Then in Washington, D.C., the declare was that uncontrolled crime required the usage of the Nationwide Guard - though crime was on the time and continues to drop in D.C. Extra just lately, we have seen as Trump threatens or, the truth is, does deploy federal regulation enforcement and likewise the Nationwide Guard in different cities, the main focus has shifted again in direction of immigration.

So on the one hand, that achieves a objective for him, however it additionally will get Individuals used to the thought of armed troops within the streets as one thing that's not a very overseas state of affairs, not completely extraordinary. And that is vital going into the elections. Should you attempt to deploy numerous the navy in, say, late October 2026, it will elevate loads of fuss and loads of consideration. But when persons are already accustomed to that, it will not be one thing new. And I feel that is a priority that loads of the election consultants I talked to had.

There's particularly a federal regulation that bans sending armed males within the language to any election of services until there may be an precise energetic insurrection. However there are methods to get round that. If you have already got troops on the street or if you have already got a powerful presence of, say, ICE brokers within the streets, you are not sending them to polling areas. You are not particularly interfering with the election, however you could have a few of the identical impact - and I feel that impact can also be value parsing a little bit bit.

On the one hand, there was a query of intimidation. Individuals may not need to come to the polls if there are, you realize, heavily-armed folks within the streets. The reply you get from folks on the MAGA proper is, properly, in case you're a citizen, you don't have anything to concern. And I feel as we have seen many arrests of residents by ICE and together with detention of residents, that does not actually maintain water anymore. However the different drawback is inconvenience. When you've got heavy automobiles on the streets and checkpoints and, you realize, numerous troopers or guardsmen, it makes it arduous to get to election locations. And that inconvenience can hold folks from voting.

Particularly in a midterm the place persons are not as motivated or as energized as they're in a presidential election. So all of those little bits on the margin can begin chipping away at how many individuals are prepared or capable of solid their votes.

MOSLEY: You write about this hanging irony. So Trump talks continually about election safety, however he is gutted the company that really protects it. He minimize a 3rd of CISA's workforce, the individuals who assist native officers defend towards hackers. The administration has additionally slashed thousands and thousands in funding, after which he appointed this lady, Heather Honey, to supervise election integrity. Remind us who she is and what this tells us about what she's been given as her directives.

GRAHAM: Heather Honey is one among these figures who rose to prominence within the aftermath of the 2020 election as a type of self-styled election analyst - and he or she was concerned in efforts in some states to lift questions on whether or not there had been fraud. As we all know, there was no proof of fraud. All of the authorized circumstances that involved the 2020 election had been defeated. However Honey now has been appointed to this new place at DHS that considerations election integrity, and we do not know precisely what her powers may be or how she would possibly use them - partially as a result of this place is new and since the administration has not informed us loads about it.

However I feel in case you put it alongside these different efforts to cut back the safety in different methods, the fear is that she'll use that perch to both stress native officers to do issues that - the place there's safety or which can be towards the regulation, or else merely that she's going to solid doubt on the elections and create considerations among the many citizens about whether or not elections have been truthful.

MOSLEY: Let's speak in regards to the energy of the courts for a second. You've got identified that the majority election-related circumstances are literally determined in decrease courts the place Trump and his allies have not had a lot success traditionally. But when election-related circumstances are appealed and make their approach to the Supreme Courtroom - which has proven a willingness to defer to govt authority at occasions - what sort of timeline may we be as we take into consideration the midterm elections? Might circumstances tied to the 2026 midterms realistically be resolved earlier than votes are solid or counted?

GRAHAM: This can be a actually good query, and it relies upon a little bit bit on the sorts of circumstances we see. On the one hand, the Supreme Courtroom has been taking loads of steps on the shadow docket. However, the courts are typically reluctant to intrude with elections too near the election. You realize, they've held traditionally that you do not need to change the principles of the election inside the final, you realize, weeks, months - and they also are typically pretty restrained about that. So there is a query not solely of issues that may come to the courtroom earlier than the election, but in addition issues that may come to the courtroom after the election - emergency appeals, points about stopping voting or you realize, a state of affairs just like the Bush v. Gore case in 2000.

One factor that consultants did inform me, although, is Bush v. Gore, though it's a very controversial and really excessive profile, is a little bit bit uncommon. Often these circumstances do not make it to the Supreme Courtroom. And normally once they do, on election points as in comparison with a few of these different issues, courtroom watchers see the courtroom being a little bit bit extra restrained and hesitant to rock the boat.

MOSLEY: Let's take a brief break. Should you're simply becoming a member of us, my visitor is David Graham from The Atlantic, and we're speaking about his reporting on election methods and political energy forward of the 2026 midterms - and what these efforts reveal in regards to the present state of American democracy. We'll be proper again after a brief break. That is FRESH AIR.

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MOSLEY: That is FRESH AIR. And at this time, we're speaking to David Graham, a workers author at The Atlantic and writer of "The Challenge: How Challenge 2025 Is Reshaping America." His newest article, "Donald Trump's Plan To Subvert The Midterms Is Already Underway," examines the vulnerabilities in America's election system and the way political leaders are already getting ready to check them.

I need to play a clip from a speech President Trump gave at a conservative Turning Level Motion summit in the summertime of 2024 the place he talks about voting. Let's hear.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: You will not need to do it anymore. 4 extra years. You realize what? It will be mounted. It will be positive. You will not need to vote anymore, my lovely Christians. I really like you, Christians. I am a Christian. I really like you. Get out. You bought to get out and vote. In 4 years, you do not have to vote once more. We'll have it mounted so good you are not going to need to vote.

MOSLEY: In order that was President Trump at a conservative Turning Level Motion summit in the summertime of 2024. His folks later stated that he was referring to fixing the issues with voting. However I may additionally see the place it feels like he may be saying there will not be a should be any extra elections. How have students that you've got spoken to interpreted this?

GRAHAM: They see it as a harmful assertion. Trump has a behavior of type of pushing the envelope in these statements after which writing it again as both a joke or saying he did not imply that. What I heard repeatedly was folks saying, you realize, we consider there shall be elections in 2026. Every thing transferring ahead signifies that. There's preparation. Trump would not be pushing states to gerrymander if he did not suppose there have been going to be elections, so we're not going to see canceled elections. However the query is whether or not they're actually free and truthful. And when he says issues like that, it would not sound like he is getting ready totally free and truthful elections, particularly while you take that subsequent to the actions he is taking to undermine the safety of the system in different methods and to solid doubt on it.

MOSLEY: Is there a state of affairs the place he may declare a nationwide emergency across the 2026 elections if the turnout is not what he anticipated or needs?

GRAHAM: What's, I feel, scary about emergency powers for the president is that they are pretty broad and loads of them are unexplored. So we have seen folks round Trump suggesting that declarations of emergency could be actually helpful. And what's unclear is whether or not courts would permit that, how briskly courts may react to cease them. You realize, may courts react earlier than, for instance, voting machines had been seized, which might elevate questions on chain of custody and whether or not tallies may very well be trusted, or would they be slower to get to it? And what would he do with that form of emergency energy? Would it not be seizing machines? Would it not be sending troops into the road? So the broad leeway presidents have and the dearth of readability round how courts would react make {that a} state of affairs that loads of consultants are involved about.

MOSLEY: Are you able to speak additionally about a few of the different issues which can be taking place, perhaps not on the federal degree, not with the administration, however with people who're supporters of Trump's agenda? There was this story that got here out just lately of a former GOP election official shopping for Dominion Voting Programs, saying that he'll push for paper ballots. There are different actors who're additionally working in methods to shift and alter the best way we really vote.

GRAHAM: I feel this query of the acquisition of Dominion is absolutely fascinating. And it has undoubtedly raised some alarm bells from folks. You realize, election officers who I belief have been treating that one, I'd say, with some warning. That is any person who labored in election administration for a very long time. They usually're ready to see whether or not the brand new firm will really make large modifications or if that is principally type of a rhetorical shift designed to enchantment to the best. However there are loads of considerations on the native degree and somewhere else about what would possibly occur. We noticed election officers in 2020 who've now been pressured from workplace who stood as much as Trump, together with many Republicans. And we have seen election deniers operating for and being elected to native workplaces. In order that they now have management over voting in some locations.

We've seen Republicans take management of state election authorities in locations like North Carolina. We noticed in Colorado an odd scenario the place a Republican marketing consultant contacted county officers in a number of counties and requested them to supply entry to their voting machines to the federal authorities. And he claimed he was working with the White Home. Now, that will be towards state regulation. All of them informed him no. And the White Home stated that he was not designated to do that. However it's an odd scenario. And something that would offer that form of third-party entry would elevate questions in regards to the integrity of the system and whether or not we may belief the votes.

MOSLEY: You realize, one of many issues that has been talked about is President Trump searching for a 3rd time period. What have the oldsters that you've got talked to, who're making projections or fearful of creating projections, stated about this specific concern?

GRAHAM: This can be a little bit like Trump making an attempt to intrude with state election administration, the place it is very clear what the regulation says. There's not a method for a president to run for a 3rd time period. It is also very clear that the Structure is meant to bar, you realize, these bizarre maneuvers which were mentioned, for instance, the place Trump would run as a vice presidential candidate, after which whoever was on the high of the ticket would resign and let him take over. So the authority is not there. However Trump has additionally tried in lots of circumstances to overstep his authority, to do issues that he would not have the facility to do. And he is been stopped by the courts or, you realize, the courts have allowed issues to go ahead on a brief foundation.

So they are not nervous that there is some authorized maneuver that will work. What they're nervous is that he would possibly do it and there may be nobody who was ready or prepared to cease him from operating for a 3rd time period. And this will get very technical, however there are questions of how, for instance, you'd disqualify a Trump third time period given prior litigations in regards to the 14th Modification and whether or not Trump may very well be disqualified earlier than the 2024 race. It shortly will get very weedy though the Structure is so clear.

MOSLEY: Why are folks saying that the 14th Modification ought to have barred President Trump from operating in 2024?

GRAHAM: There have been lots of people who argued that as a result of the 14th Modification barred insurrectionists, which was a post-Civil Struggle approach to disqualify former Confederates from workplace, they stated that Trump's try to overturn the 2020 election certified him as an insurrectionist. And in consequence, he shouldn't be allowed on ballots. And we noticed efforts in some states to take away him from the poll. And people went to the Supreme Courtroom, which dominated mainly that states do not have loads of authority to try this on their very own until the federal authorities - particularly, Congress - has already deemed any person to have been concerned in an rebel. So the query is then, would Congress say that Trump could not run for a 3rd time period? And in the event that they did not, is there any enforcement mechanism?

MOSLEY: Let's speak a little bit bit about Congress as a result of, once more, the authorized consultants you speak to refuse to make predictions in regards to the presidential race particularly in 2028. But when Democrats do handle to retake the Home or the Senate in 2026, regardless of the entire interference that you just describe, what occurs subsequent? Does Trump settle for these outcomes? What does the interval between November 2026 and January 2027 appear to be?

GRAHAM: It is fascinating to see what is going on on now in Congress, the place there was a Democrat elected within the particular election in Arizona, Adelita Grijalva, who has not but been seated within the Home, just because Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to seat her. So one concern is, if there may be an election that's not licensed in time and the bulk is Republican, may they elect Speaker Mike Johnson after which refuse to later seat Democrats who've been elected? It is a little bit little bit of a sophisticated state of affairs, however that is a chance.

The opposite query is what Trump would possibly attempt to do to consolidate energy forward of the seating of, you realize, a brand new Home type of in that lame-duck interval. The place would possibly he attempt to push congressional Republicans to provide him new powers or do issues that they would not block? After which after a brand new Home is sworn in, if it is a Democratic majority, the query is how he'll work together with them. For instance, would he adjust to subpoenas? Will he adjust to oversight requests? Throughout his first time period, he was actually desirous to form of stonewall Democrats within the Home. However he is gone additional on many issues than he did in his first time period. And so I am curious to see what that may appear to be, how he may be extra aggressive in refusing to cooperate with a brand new Democratic majority.

MOSLEY: How does cash play into this? We see billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, you realize, assist Trump's targets. We additionally noticed loads of that within the mayor's race in New York with endorsements as properly.

GRAHAM: Cash in American politics is so central. And though voters have persistently indicated a desire for stronger guidelines, they are not there. We've seen billionaires flocking to Trump particularly, and though Democrats have billionaire backers of their very own, one concern is whether or not the system will stay equitable and likewise whether or not Democrats are capable of depend on their type of small-dollar donations. When you've one thing like ActBlue beneath investigation, it is an actual menace to the Democratic fundraising machine.

And so you have already got a system that's shot by means of with cash. You may have fewer restrictions on it. You may have our bodies just like the Federal Election Fee mainly hamstrung by partisanship and by lack of appointments. And so marketing campaign finance is a little bit little bit of a wild west proper now, and it creates extra alternatives for the federal authorities to place thumbs on scales.

MOSLEY: You realize, as a result of President Trump has been so unpredictable, he is damaged so many norms, it requires loads of hypothesis to foretell the long run. How do you actuality test the threats to elections with info, what you write about in your articles?

GRAHAM: It is a difficult factor. And, you realize, there have been loads of events the place I've talked to consultants and so they've stated, this isn't attainable. After which one thing occurs anyway as a result of Trump merely, you realize, goes across the regulation or defies the regulation or the Supreme Courtroom points one thing surprising. I simply attempt to floor this actually intently in understanding each what the regulation is and the way Trump would possibly attempt to get round it and to pay shut consideration to the issues that he and the folks round him are saying.

I additionally suppose that, you realize, the current previous provides us some good indications. For instance, we noticed Trump calling native officers in 2020 and making an attempt to get them to assist him. He did not face critical penalties for that. That offers us a superb cause to anticipate he would attempt to do one thing like that once more. We will guess that he would possibly attempt to deploy troops on the streets as a result of he is already doing that now. Usually these items are foretold properly forward of time.

MOSLEY: David Graham, thanks a lot for this dialog.

GRAHAM: Thanks.

MOSLEY: David Graham is a workers author at The Atlantic. Our interview was recorded yesterday morning. Developing, ebook critic Maureen Corrigan critiques Patti Smith's new memoir, "Bread Of Angels." That is FRESH AIR.

(SOUNDBITE OF PATTI SMITH SONG, "WITHIN YOU WITHOUT YOU")

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