2026 redistricting: Indiana Republicans say they won't redistrict

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Welcome to The Logoff: President Donald Trump’s marketing campaign to redistrict his method to a Home majority within the 2026 midterms could also be starting to backfire.

What occurred? On Friday, Indiana Senate Republicans introduced they would not move forward with a plan to redraw state congressional maps in a means that may favor Republicans. The choice, if it sticks, seemingly deprives the GOP of an additional seat within the 2026 midterms.

What’s the context? Redistricting often occurs as soon as per decade after a brand new census. However earlier this yr, Trump kicked off an unprecedented wave of mid-decade redistricting by pressuring Texas lawmakers to redraw their maps and create 5 new Republican congressional districts.

That effort spread to Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, all of which redrew their maps to favor Republicans to various levels. California voters, in the meantime, accepted a redistricting poll measure in final week’s elections, which can seemingly web Democrats 5 seats, and Virginia may create as many as 4 new Democratic seats.

Why is that this an issue for Trump? Early within the redistricting wars, the standard knowledge was that the GOP would seemingly come out forward. With Indiana’s determination to decide out, together with Democratic victories in California and Virginia, that now not seems to be the case (although some states are nonetheless up within the air).

If Democrats do break even in redistricting, and even achieve seats, that offers them a critical edge heading into the 2026 midterms, the place the celebration out of energy is often favored and the GOP will likely be tasked with defending a slim Home majority.

And a Democratic majority within the Home would spell bother for Trump. Not solely would his legislative agenda be useless within the water for the ultimate two years of his presidency, however his administration must take care of elevated oversight and Democratic subpoenas. These penalties are nonetheless contingent on the result of the midterms — however what occurred at the moment is a concrete step in that course.

And with that, it’s time to sign off…

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