Why India’s political start-ups hardly ever succeed

[ad_1] Soutik Biswas India correspondent

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ea10/live/99ab7850-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ea10/live/99ab7850-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ea10/live/99ab7850-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ea10/live/99ab7850-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ea10/live/99ab7850-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ea10/live/99ab7850-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ea10/live/99ab7850-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ea10/live/99ab7850-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Hindustan Times via Getty Images Political strategist Prashant Kishor addresses a press conference at Gyan Bhawan on May 5, 2022 in Patna, India. (Photo by Santosh Kumar/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Hindustan Instances by way of Getty Photographs Kishor launched Jan Suraaj, a political celebration aiming to finish Bihar's stagnation

For over a decade, Prashant Kishor was India's backstage magician - the political strategist trusted by everybody from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to highly effective regional leaders equivalent to Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee.

However when the 48-year-old lastly stepped into the world himself, the spell snapped.

Kishor launched Jan Suraaj (Individuals's Good Governance) with the swagger of a data-driven political start-up and the promise of breaking the cycle of stagnation in Bihar, India's poorest and third most populous state.

He spent two years strolling throughout the state, constructed a slick organisation and fielded candidates in virtually all 243 seats. The media buzz was big, however Jan Suraaj didn't win a single seat, scraping solely a sliver of the vote, as Modi's BJP-led alliance swept to energy.

For all the eye Kishor commanded - usually greater than established leaders - the celebration couldn't convert visibility into votes. In India's febrile and deeply divided political market, his debut, many consider, stands as a cautionary story: breaking into the system is way tougher than diagnosing its flaws from the surface.

The trendy historical past of Indian politics bears this out.

For the reason that rise of the regional Telugu Desam Celebration (TDP) in 1983, only a few new events have crossed the brink of relevance. People who have - from West Bengal's Trinamool Congress to Odisha's Biju Janata Dal - have been breakaway factions of main events, anchored in present social bases.

Others, like Assam's Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in 1985 or Delhi's Aam Aadmi Celebration (AAP) many years later, rode on the again of mass mobilisation and political crises. Kishor's Jan Suraaj had neither. It was not born of a avenue motion, nor did it emerge right into a second of anti-incumbent fury. Regardless of its many issues, Bihar in 2025 seemed to be largely content material with the established order.

"There was no anti-incumbency wave - voters largely caught to established political and social loyalties. With out a seen disaster or widespread dissatisfaction, Kishor's celebration by no means appeared a reputable different, regardless of laborious work and mobilisation," says Rahul Verma, a political scientist.

Jan Suraaj's debut in Bihar additionally contrasted sharply with most new Indian events.

Whereas events just like the AGP, TDP and AAP grew from "socio-political actions that already had deep emotional and grassroots resonance", and AAP was born from a mass anti-corruption motion, Jan Suraaj was conceived as "extra of an mental and strategic challenge" - a strategy-driven initiative to fill what Kishor known as a "political vacuum", says Saurabh Raj of the Delhi-based Indian College of Democracy.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/5207/live/a1b963e0-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/5207/live/a1b963e0-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5207/live/a1b963e0-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/5207/live/a1b963e0-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/5207/live/a1b963e0-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/5207/live/a1b963e0-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/5207/live/a1b963e0-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5207/live/a1b963e0-c13e-11f0-8717-7b6a6b2fefad.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="AFP via Getty Images) TOPSHOT - Women voters stand in queues to cast their ballots at a polling station during the first phase of voting for assembly elections on November 6, 2025, at the Raghopur constituency in the Vaishali district of the Indian state of Bihar. (Photo by Sachin KUMAR / AFP) (Photo by SACHIN KUMAR/AFP via Getty Images)" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> AFP by way of Getty Photographs) Bihar recorded a file 66.91% turnout in polls in November, the best since 1951

"The following padayatra [a long, grassroots walk across the state to meet people] tried to show that mental concept right into a folks's marketing campaign. But it surely nonetheless lacked the natural, movement-based power that usually propels new events to relevance. In that sense, Jan Suraaj feels extra like a 'designed political start-up' than a celebration born of agitation or upheaval," provides Raj.

Kishor wager that this meticulously designed political challenge may substitute for a loyal constituency.

He talked of governance, jobs, compelled migration for jobs and training - a compelling agenda in a state lengthy trapped by caste and patronage politics. Reaching Bihar's 130 million largely younger folks, Kishor introduced hype, strategies, charisma - and even memes.

However many consider his celebration lacked the flamable emotional power that propels rebel political outfits. Kishor's refusal to contest a seat himself could have deepened doubts about whether or not he was working an experiment or providing another.

The Bihar verdict laid naked a structural fact of Indian politics: consideration will not be organisation, and media hype with out floor power can backfire.

As Raj notes, Jan Suraaj "didn't turn into a severe contender on any seat", and even its modest vote share "reveals the hole between visibility and power". The celebration has recognition however no pure social base - no caste, non secular, gender or city constituencies like its rivals, he says.

Verma places it extra bluntly: start-ups fail extra usually than they succeed - in enterprise and in politics.

"We have a tendency to recollect solely the successes, however most new events fail," he provides.

Constructing a celebration requires visibility, organisation, mobilisation and the appropriate candidates - every a separate problem, particularly with out a observe file of voters belief, says Verma. Jan Suraaj fielded candidates in 238 seats, most of them first-timers.

What does the failure of Kishor's high-profile Jan Suraaj inform us about Indian voters? Kishor drew crowds wherever he campaigned, was articulate and dominated media protection - but his celebration misplaced to a coalition led by 74-year-old veteran Nitish Kumar, whom he had wager would by no means return to energy.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/0b73/live/776658e0-bfb4-11f0-ae46-bd64331f0fd4.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0b73/live/776658e0-bfb4-11f0-ae46-bd64331f0fd4.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0b73/live/776658e0-bfb4-11f0-ae46-bd64331f0fd4.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/0b73/live/776658e0-bfb4-11f0-ae46-bd64331f0fd4.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/0b73/live/776658e0-bfb4-11f0-ae46-bd64331f0fd4.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/0b73/live/776658e0-bfb4-11f0-ae46-bd64331f0fd4.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/0b73/live/776658e0-bfb4-11f0-ae46-bd64331f0fd4.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0b73/live/776658e0-bfb4-11f0-ae46-bd64331f0fd4.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Hindustan Times via Getty Images) NEW DELHI, INDIA - MAY 1: Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal addresses labourers and employees during the Delhi Shramik Sammelan on the occasion of International Labour day on May 1, 2018 in New Delhi, India. (Photo by Raj K Raj/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Hindustan Instances by way of Getty Photographs) Arvind Kejriwal's AAP rode to energy on the again of an anti-corruption motion

"Indian voters right this moment are extra politically conscious and issue-sensitive than ever earlier than, however additionally they stay deeply pragmatic. They usually recognize the freshness of a brand new agenda however are likely to 'vote protected' until satisfied of a celebration's viability," says Raj.

He believes Jan Suraaj's give attention to governance, jobs and migration was coherent and interesting, however with out a charismatic electoral face, voters struggled to see it as a successful different.

In contrast, AAP's early success in Delhi hinged on anti-corruption campaigner Arvind Kejriwal personally contesting towards Sheila Dikshit, the then chief minister of Delhi, a symbolic act that transformed volunteers into voters.

"Kishor's determination to avoid contesting restricted that emotional join and credibility. For brand spanking new events, a compelling agenda issues, however a relatable, threat taking chief who embodies that agenda is usually the tipping level," says Raj.

But, this will not be the tip for Kishor's celebration. Prior to now, he has promised to remain in Bihar and strengthen its grassroots presence and agenda if he misplaced the polls.

Raj believes if Jan Suraaj can preserve a gentle floor presence, domesticate native management and keep away from the "post-election dormancy" that traps many new events, it might steadily convert consideration into affect.

"Bihar's political panorama is fluid, conventional caste loyalties are evolving and there's a rising urge for food for credible alternate options. If Kishor chooses to steer from the entrance politically relatively than strategically, and continues the grassroots engagement past the electoral cycle, Jan Suraaj may turn into a significant electoral pressure by 2030," he says.

As one native voter put it to a reporter in a village in Bihar: "Individuals may reply to [Kishor] within the subsequent election. This time, he is simply getting his ft moist - he isn't some superhero who can soar instantly."