Tanzania’s descent into repression is a stark warning of how briskly Africa’s progress may be eroded

[ad_1] A renewed sense of hope has taken root throughout the African continent. It's an optimism resting on stable floor: a booming inhabitants anticipated to surpass 2.5 billion by mid-century; huge reserves of essential minerals, oil and gasoline; and unprecedented ranges of infrastructure funding.

The African Growth Financial institution (AfDB) initiatives that Africa’s mixed GDP may attain $4tn (£3tn) by 2030, pushed by green-energy investments, urbanisation and digital innovation. One among their senior economists instructed me confidently earlier this yr: “The long run shall be written in Africa.”

Their “ High 5s ” technique has galvanised billions in financing and inspired a renewed confidence within the continent’s future that's mirrored throughout the diaspora. These transformations symbolise an inflection level: Africa rising by itself phrases.

Good governance is the muse upon which Africa’s progress should relaxation Mo Ibrahim But optimism is tempered by a sobering actuality. The Mo Ibrahim Basis’s 2024 African Governance Report paints a stark image. Whereas youthful demographics and financial potential encourage hope, governance and safety tendencies are transferring backwards.

In keeping with the muse’s index of African governance , scores have declined for the primary time in a decade. Almost 30 African nations have skilled both coups, armed insurgencies or democratic backsliding since 2020. Battle hotspots from Sudan, Congo and the Sahel to Ethiopia and Mozambique are displacing tens of millions and eroding regional stability.

The report notes that “the democratic dividend is in danger”, citing the silencing of opposition events, manipulation of electoral commissions, and the usage of safety forces to consolidate energy.

These patterns threaten not solely human rights however the very financial positive factors the AfDB celebrates. As Ibrahim warned: “ Good governance is the muse upon which Africa’s progress should relaxation. With out it, growth will crumble underneath the burden of corruption and repression.”

Voters confirm their registration earlier than the polls open in Stone City on Zanzibar. {Photograph}: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Photographs The newest instance of democratic decay comes from Tanzania , a rustic lengthy praised for its stability and post-colonial unity.

After gaining independence from Britain in 1961, Tanganyika – later the United Republic of Tanzania, after its 1964 union with Zanzibar – was a beacon of African liberation underneath Julius Nyerere. His African socialist coverage of Ujamaa (“familyhood” in Swahili) emphasised equality and nationwide cohesion.

Eyewitnesses described unmitigated scenes of horror: troopers firing stay ammunition on crowds … morgues stuffed past capability However this unity was constructed on the dominance of a single get together: Chama Cha Mapinduzi (“Social gathering of the Revolution”). Since 1977, CCM has dominated uninterrupted, underneath a collection of leaders – from Ali Hassan Mwinyi to Benjamin Mkapa, Jakaya Kikwete, John Magufuli, and now Samia Suluhu Hassan.

When Magufuli died instantly in 2021, vice-president Hassan, a Zanzibari and the primary girl to guide Tanzania, assumed workplace. Her early months provided nice hope: she allowed media organisations banned by Magufuli to reopen, met opposition leaders and promised nationwide reconciliation. However that promise has crumbled. As she sought re-election this yr, Tanzania slid into authoritarianism.

October’s election marked the nadir. Main opposition leaders, together with Tundu Lissu of the Chadema get together, had been arrested or barred from contesting. Different outstanding figures – corresponding to Luhaga Mpina, of the Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT Wazalendo) – had been disqualified on technicalities.

On polling day, the federal government blocked web entry, deployed the army and restricted impartial observers. The National Electoral Commission declared Hassan the winner with 97.6 % of the vote , figures broadly criticised as implausible and extra paying homage to autocracies than democracies. Observers from the Southern African Growth Neighborhood (SADC) and civil society teams condemned the election as neither free nor honest. Calls have grown for impartial investigations into human rights abuses and killings.

Within the days that adopted, protests erupted throughout main cities together with Dar es Salaam, Mwanza and Arusha. Eyewitnesses described unmitigated scenes of horror: troopers firing on crowds, properties raided at night time, and morgues stuffed past capability.

Buses set ablaze after clashes erupted in Dar es Salaam throughout the Tanzanian presidential elections. {Photograph}: AFP/Getty Photographs Estimates of deaths have ranged from dozens to 1000's. The UN said “hundreds” however an umbrella group of African human rights organisations steered that as many as 3,000 people might have been killed. Their calculations, primarily based on observations at a number of hospitals and morgues overwhelmed with our bodies, level to a scale of violence far past the official figures.

A number of outstanding activists and political figures have gone lacking. Amongst them are Mdude Nyagali , an outspoken opposition organiser kidnapped from his dwelling in Could 2025 after repeated threats; Edgar Edson Mwakabela , referred to as “Sativa”, a digital activist who survived a gunshot to the top after being kidnapped in June 2024; Ali Mohammed Kibao , a former intelligence officer for the opposition, discovered murdered with acid poured on his face in early 2025; and John Heche , Chadema’s deputy chief, reportedly detained incommunicado since final month.

Opposition sources and humanitarian teams have accused state forces of digging mass graves exterior Dar es Salaam and Arusha to hide the size of the killings. The federal government, nonetheless, denies any wrongdoing. In a BBC interview , Tanzania’s overseas minister, Mahmoud Thabit Kombo, insisted there have been no confirmed studies of deaths – a press release at odds with photographic and video proof acquired by this creator and likewise circulating on encrypted networks and social media.

Yoweri Museveni, 81, has been in energy since 1986. {Photograph}: Getty This descent into repression represents not only a nationwide tragedy however a regional warning. Tanzania, as soon as a pillar of stability and a bunch for liberation actions throughout Africa’s anti-colonial struggles, now mirrors the very autocracies it as soon as opposed. Its degeneration underscores how fragile democratic positive factors stay throughout the continent.

In gold-rich Uganda, one other east African nation as soon as celebrated for its liberation battle, President Yoweri Museveni – now 81 and in energy since 1986 – has stated he will contest yet another election . Ought to he win once more, it will lengthen his rule past 4 many years, perpetuating the cycle of constitutional manipulation and generational disillusionment. Uganda’s youth, who make up over 70% of its inhabitants, face a bleak political horizon the place energy modifications solely by mortality, not by mandate.

In the meantime, the continent’s two deadliest conflicts – in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo – proceed to trigger distress. In Sudan, the warfare between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Fast Assist Forces financed by the United Arab Emirates’ thirst for gold , has lowered Khartoum to rubble, triggered famine, and pushed greater than 9 million individuals from their properties.

M23 rebels guard a unit of surrendering Congolese law enforcement officials in Bukavu, close to the DRC’s border with Rwanda. {Photograph}: Hugh Kinsella Cunningham/Getty Photographs In japanese Congo, preventing between authorities troops and the M23 insurgent motion has reignited regional tensions, with Rwanda and Uganda accused of backing armed proxies. These wars, fuelled by greed for minerals and management of commerce routes, are destroying exactly the human and institutional foundations Africa wants for its much-vaunted “century of progress”.

If the imaginative and prescient outlined by the African Growth Financial institution and others is to be realised, the worldwide neighborhood should act decisively to forestall the erosion of governance that threatens to derail Africa’s rise.

<gu-island name="RichLinkComponent" priority="feature" deferuntil="idle" props="{"richLinkIndex":28,"element":{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","prefix":"Related: ","text":"‘I don’t want freebies’: outgoing AfDB head on why investment, not aid, will shape Africa’s future","elementId":"9e1160eb-4f9e-4899-b8b0-fb5409067023","role":"richLink","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/may/29/outgoing-afdb-head-african-development-bank-akinwumi-adesina-investment-not-aid-shape-future"},"ajaxUrl":"https://api.nextgen.guardianapps.co.uk","format":{"design":8,"display":0,"theme":1}}"/> The UN Human Rights Council ought to urgently launch an impartial investigation into the killings, detentions and disappearances throughout Tanzania’s 2025 election. The African Union and SADC should press for accountability and remind member states of their democratic commitments underneath the African Charter .

For Africa’s century to really belong to Africans, its leaders should perceive that prosperity with out liberty is hole. The identical youthful era that powers Africa’s demographic growth deserves the fitting to talk, to organise and to vote with out concern. If the continent is to harness its mineral and technological promise, it should first safeguard the dignity and lives of its individuals.

The world can't have fun Africa’s financial rise whereas ignoring the blood staining the streets. Tanzania’s tragedy shouldn't be an remoted occasion – it displays the broader battle for democracy throughout the continent. Africa can't rise if leaders concern ballots greater than warfare. And till the cries of the silenced are heard, the dream of an African future will stay unfinished.