Hasina’s conviction for crimes in opposition to humanity is testing India-Bangladesh ties

[ad_1] Soutik Biswas India correspondent

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ab94/live/6479dbb0-c53d-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ab94/live/6479dbb0-c53d-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ab94/live/6479dbb0-c53d-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ab94/live/6479dbb0-c53d-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ab94/live/6479dbb0-c53d-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ab94/live/6479dbb0-c53d-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ab94/live/6479dbb0-c53d-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ab94/live/6479dbb0-c53d-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="LightRocket via Getty Images NEW DELHI, INDIA - 2022/09/06: Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina (R) speaks to the media during the ceremonial reception with Narendra Modi standing nearby at the Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi. Sheikh Hasina was on a four-day visit to India. Indian Prime Minister Modi and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina discuss issues related to Defence, Trade, and connectivity. India and Bangladesh are likely to sign pacts on water sharing on the Kushiyara River, training and IT cooperation in Railways, Science, and Space. (Photo by Naveen Sharma/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> LightRocket by way of Getty Pictures For India, few friendships have been as strategically priceless - and as politically expensive - as its lengthy embrace of Bangladesh's former chief Sheikh Hasina.

Throughout 15 years in energy she delivered what Delhi prizes most in its periphery: stability, connectivity and a neighbour keen to align its pursuits with India's fairly than China's.

As of late she is throughout the border in India however has been sentenced to loss of life by a particular tribunal in Bangladesh for crimes in opposition to humanity over her crackdown on student-led protests, which led to her ousting.

The 2024 demonstrations pressured her to flee and paved the way in which for Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to guide an interim authorities. Elections are due early subsequent yr.

The fallout from all this has created a diplomatic bind: Dhaka desires Hasina extradited, however Delhi has proven no inclination to conform - making her loss of life sentence successfully unenforceable.

What Delhi supposed as humanitarian asylum is popping into an extended and uncomfortable check of how far it's keen to go for an previous ally, and the way a lot diplomatic capital it's ready to burn within the course of.

Michael Kugelman, a South Asia knowledgeable, says India faces 4 unappealing choices.

It may hand Hasina over - "which it actually does not wish to do". It may keep the established order, although that may develop into "more and more dangerous for Delhi as soon as a newly elected authorities takes workplace subsequent yr".

Or, it may press Hasina to remain silent and keep away from statements or interviews, one thing she is "unlikely to simply accept" as she continues to guide her Awami League celebration - and one thing Delhi is unlikely to implement.

The remaining possibility is to discover a third nation to take her in, however that too is fraught: few governments are more likely to settle for a "high-maintenance visitor with critical authorized issues and safety wants", Mr Kugelman says.

Extraditing Hasina is unthinkable - India's ruling celebration and opposition alike view her as an in depth pal. "India prides itself on not turning on its mates," in keeping with Mr Kugelman.

What makes this second particularly awkward for Delhi is the sheer depth - and asymmetry - of the India–Bangladesh relationship, rooted in India's pivotal function in Bangladesh's beginning.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/bdc2/live/2f18c790-c53f-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/bdc2/live/2f18c790-c53f-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bdc2/live/2f18c790-c53f-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/bdc2/live/2f18c790-c53f-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/bdc2/live/2f18c790-c53f-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/bdc2/live/2f18c790-c53f-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/bdc2/live/2f18c790-c53f-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/bdc2/live/2f18c790-c53f-11f0-88be-3bc2aea1a256.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images A student-led uprising forced toppled Hasina, forcing her to flee Bangladesh last year" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Getty Pictures A student-led rebellion toppled Hasina, forcing her to flee Bangladesh final yr

Bangladesh is India's largest buying and selling companion in South Asia, and India has develop into Bangladesh's largest export market in Asia. Whole commerce reached almost $13bn (£10bn) final yr, with Bangladesh operating a sizeable deficit, closely depending on Indian uncooked supplies, vitality and transit routes.

India has provided $8bn-$10bn in concessional credit score over the previous decade, offers duty-free entry to some items, constructed cross-border rail hyperlinks, and provides electrical energy - plus oil and LNG - from Indian grids and ports. This isn't a relationship both facet can simply stroll away from.

"India and Bangladesh share a fancy interdependence - counting on one another for water, electrical energy and extra. It might be tough for Bangladesh to operate with out India's co-operation," says Sanjay Bhardwaj, a professor of South Asian research at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru College.

But, many consider, Bangladesh's interim authorities, below Yunus, seems to now be transferring shortly to rebalance its exterior ties. His first months in workplace have been a burst of diplomatic outreach geared toward "de-Indianising" Bangladesh's overseas coverage, in keeping with political scientist Bian Sai in a paper revealed by the Nationwide College of Singapore.

A authorities that when aligned itself with India at each regional discussion board is now cancelling judicial exchanges, renegotiating Indian vitality offers, slowing India-led connectivity tasks, and leaning publicly on Beijing, Islamabad and even Ankara for strategic partnership. Many consider the message couldn't be clearer: Bangladesh, as soon as India's most reliable neighbour, is hedging exhausting.

The deterioration is already seen in public sentiment. A current survey by the Dhaka-based Centre for Alternate options discovered greater than 75% of Bangladeshis considered ties with Beijing positively, in contrast with simply 11% for Delhi - reflecting sentiments after final yr's rebellion. Many blame Delhi for supporting an more and more authoritarian Hasina in her ultimate years, and see India as an overbearing neighbour.

Prof Bharadwaj says that long-standing financial and cultural ties usually endure past political shifts: knowledge present that commerce between India and Bangladesh grew between 2001 and 2006, when the "much less friendlier" Bangladesh Nationalist Get together (BNP), in coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), was in energy.

"Whereas diplomatic and political relations usually fluctuate with modifications in authorities, financial, cultural and sports activities ties have a tendency to stay largely secure. Even when a brand new administration is much less pleasant towards India, it doesn't mechanically disrupt commerce or broader bilateral relations," he says.

For Delhi, the problem is not only managing a fallen ally in exile, however preserving a neighbour central to its safety - from counterterrorism and border administration to entry to its restive north-eastern area. India shares a 4,096km (2,545 mile) largely porous and partly riverine border with Bangladesh, the place home turbulence may set off displacement or mobilisation of extremists, specialists say.

"India shouldn't be in a rush," says Avinash Paliwal, who teaches politics and worldwide research at SOAS College of London. The trail ahead, he argues, requires "quiet, affected person engagement with key political stakeholders in Dhaka -including the armed forces". Diplomacy should buy time.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/8b60/live/c998e700-c4ae-11f0-bf7b-db7c049674ab.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/8b60/live/c998e700-c4ae-11f0-bf7b-db7c049674ab.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8b60/live/c998e700-c4ae-11f0-bf7b-db7c049674ab.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/8b60/live/c998e700-c4ae-11f0-bf7b-db7c049674ab.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/8b60/live/c998e700-c4ae-11f0-bf7b-db7c049674ab.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/8b60/live/c998e700-c4ae-11f0-bf7b-db7c049674ab.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/8b60/live/c998e700-c4ae-11f0-bf7b-db7c049674ab.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8b60/live/c998e700-c4ae-11f0-bf7b-db7c049674ab.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Leon Neal/Getty Images Chief Advisor to the Government of Bangladesh Professor Muhammed Yunus speaks during an live interview at Chatham House on June 11, 2025 in London, United Kingdom. Chief Adviser to Bangladesh, Professor Muhammad Yunus, is on a four-day official visit to the UK aiming to enhance bilateral relations. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Leon Neal/Getty Pictures Muhammad Yunus is the chief of an interim authorities in Bangladesh

Dr Paliwal believes the connection is more likely to stay turbulent over the following 12–18 months, with the depth relying on developments in Bangladesh after subsequent yr's elections.

"If the interim authorities is ready to pull off elections with credibility, and an elected authorities takes expenses, it may open choices for the 2 sides to renegotiate the connection and restrict the injury."

The uncertainty has Delhi weighing not simply fast tactical strikes, however the broader precept: How can India reassure pleasant governments that it'll stand by them "by means of thick and skinny" with out inviting accusations that it's shielding leaders with troubling human rights data?

"There are not any silver-bullet operational options to this dilemma. Maybe the deeper query that requires mulling is why India faces the dilemma within the first place," says Dr Paliwal. In different phrases, did Delhi put too many eggs in a single basket by backing Hasina so persistently?

"You cope with whoever is in energy, is pleasant, and helps you get your job completed. Why do you have to change that?" says Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, former Indian excessive commissioner to Bangladesh. "Overseas coverage is not pushed by public notion or morality - relations between states not often are.

"Internally, we won't management Bangladesh's politics - it is fractious, deeply divisive, and constructed on fragile establishments."

Whether or not India can restore the deeper political rupture stays unsure. On the similar time, a lot is dependent upon Bangladesh's subsequent authorities. "The secret is how a lot Bangladesh's subsequent authorities lets the Hasina issue impression bilateral relations. If it primarily holds the connection hostage, then it will likely be robust to maneuver ahead," says Mr Kugelman.

In the end, the following elected authorities might want to steadiness Bangladesh's core pursuits - border safety, commerce and connectivity - in opposition to home politics and public anti-India sentiment, he says.