China is constructing the world’s strongest hydropower system deep within the Himalayas. It stays shrouded in secrecy

[ad_1] Lots of of miles from China’s populous shoreline, a pointy bend in a distant Himalayan river is about to change into the centerpiece of one of many nation’s most bold – and controversial – infrastructure tasks up to now.

There, a $168 billion hydropower system is anticipated to generate extra electrical energy than some other on the planet – an unlimited boon for China because it hurtles towards a future the place electrical automobiles dominate its highways and power-hungry AI fashions race to out-compute worldwide rivals.

Chinese language chief Xi Jinping called for the venture to be “superior forcefully, systematically, and successfully” throughout a uncommon go to earlier this yr to Tibet, a area the place Beijing continues to tighten its grip within the identify of financial development and stability.

Specialists say the hydropower system, constructed within the decrease reaches of Tibet’s Yarlung Tsangpo river, will likely be a feat of engineering in contrast to any ever undertaken. Leveraging a 2,000-meter altitude drop by blasting tunnels by means of a mountain, it'll allow China to harness a serious river in a area referred to as Asia’s water tower and at a time when governments are sharpening their concentrate on water safety.

The venture might help world efforts to sluggish local weather change, by serving to China – now the world’s largest carbon emitter – wean off coal-powered vitality. However its building might additionally disrupt a uncommon, pristine ecosystem and the ancestral houses of indigenous residents.

Tens of millions of individuals additionally rely on the river downstream in India and Bangladesh, the place specialists say the potential influence on the ecosystem, together with on fishing and farming, stay understudied.

Headlines in India have already dubbed the venture a possible “water bomb” – and its proximity to the disputed China-India border put it susceptible to changing into a flashpoint in a long-simmering territorial dispute between the 2 nuclear-armed powers.

Regardless of these stakes, the venture stays shrouded in secrecy, deepening questions on a plan that reveals China’s immense technical capabilities and drive for clear vitality, but in addition its lack of transparency, even in terms of an endeavor with probably far-reaching penalties.

Clues concerning the venture’s design – each referenced in official or scientific studies and from open-source info compiled by CNN – recommend a posh system that would embody dams and reservoirs alongside the Yarlung Tsangpo river, in addition to a sequence of underground hydropower stations related by tunnels, harnessing vitality as a diverted portion of the river makes a steep elevation decline.

“That is probably the most refined, revolutionary dam system the planet has ever seen,” mentioned Brian Eyler, director of the Power, Water, and Sustainability Program on the Stimson Heart suppose tank in Washington. “It’s additionally the riskiest and probably probably the most harmful.”

China disagrees. In an announcement to CNN, its Ministry of International Affairs mentioned that the venture had “undergone a long time of in-depth analysis” and “carried out thorough measures for engineering security and ecological safety to make sure it is not going to adversely have an effect on downstream areas.”

“Because the preliminary preparation and official graduation of the venture, the Chinese language aspect has at all times maintained transparency concerning pertinent info and has stored open traces of communication with downstream nations,” the ministry mentioned, including that “because the venture progresses” Beijing would “share mandatory info with the worldwide group” and “strengthen communication and cooperation with downstream nations.”

The venture, it mentioned, “goals to speed up the event of unpolluted vitality, enhance native livelihoods, and actively deal with local weather change.”

However Beijing could produce other priorities in thoughts, too. The bold infrastructure transfer comes as Xi pushes to shore up nationwide safety not simply by making certain China’s vitality provide – but in addition tightening management alongside disputed borders and areas residence to ethnic minorities.

“If you happen to join the dots of Chinese language infrastructure improvement within the Himalayas, particularly in areas the place China borders India alongside Tibet, they're strategically positioned,” mentioned Rishi Gupta, assistant director on the Asia Society Coverage Institute in New Delhi.

“The venture aligns with China’s broader purpose of leveraging its pure assets to consolidate management over crucial areas like Tibet and its borders.”

Often called the world’s highest main river, the Yarlung Tsangpo winds its manner from a glacier within the Himalayas throughout the plateau that cradled Tibetan Buddhism, and towards the nation’s southernmost edge.

One stretch of the river, tucked alongside Tibet’s de facto border with an Indian state whose land China claims , has lengthy drawn consideration for its power-generating potential.

There, the waterway makes a dramatic horseshoe flip because it wraps round a mass of mountains at what’s referred to as the Nice Bend – a trajectory that sees the river lose some 2,000 meters in altitude inside roughly 50 kilometers.

That descent has been estimated to have the potential to generate some 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electrical energy yearly – roughly triple the output of China’s Three Gorges Dam, at the moment the world’s strongest.

The hydropower improvement on the decrease Yarlung Tsangpo “isn’t merely a hydropower initiative,” it is usually a nationwide safety venture, encompassing water useful resource safety, territorial safety, and extra, Yan Zhiyong, then chairman of the Energy Development Company of China (PowerChina), said in a 2020 speech, in keeping with Chinese language state media publication.

Such a venture alongside the river’s decrease reaches has been talked about for many years however by no means tried – lengthy seen as a notoriously difficult endeavor in a distant and treacherous space, tough even for a rustic that leads the world in constructing mega-dams.

Now, satellite tv for pc pictures, publicly out there company paperwork, and social media posts from the world reviewed by CNN present work is underway constructing and widening roads, setting up bridges, erecting storage amenities for explosives, increasing cell service and relocating villagers – all obvious efforts to make manner for building, which formally started in July.

Official paperwork usually confer with the venture utilizing the Roman initials “YX” to indicate an abbreviation for the decrease reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo, however they supply restricted details about its design. State media has mentioned the venture primarily employs a technique of “straightening and diverting the river” by means of tunnels and consists of 5 cascade hydropower stations.

CNN’s examination of open-source info, together with educational analysis papers, official tenders, patents for energy station designs filed by a subsidiary of PowerChina, a neighborhood city planning doc, in addition to satellite tv for pc imagery and social media posts from the world has shed extra mild on how this expansive venture could also be taking form.

A simulation primarily based off this info and produced along with specialists on the Stimson Heart’s Power, Water, and Sustainability Program, who supplied technical and geographic evaluation, recommend the design could possibly be a sprawling system of hydropower stations, tunnels and reservoirs, which collectively might span some 150 kilometers because the crow flies from the primary to the ultimate energy station.

That system would start with a reservoir created by a dam at Mainling metropolis, the place Chinese language Premier Li Qiang attended a groundbreaking ceremony for the venture in July. The reservoir there – which might stretch dozens of miles in keeping with the simulation – would allow operators to manage the water movement all through the hydropower system.

A second, decrease dam, situated additional downstream and previous a protected nationwide wetland, would seemingly be used to divert a portion of the river away from the Nice Bend and right into a system of tunnels blasted by means of mountains and beneath an adjoining valley, in keeping with the simulation of the potential design.

Right here, the diverted water would seemingly go by means of a sequence of cascade energy stations, every a whole lot of meters decrease in elevation than the final – producing immense energy alongside the best way earlier than rejoining the principle river as soon as once more.

The precise places of all 5 stations are unknown, as is how a lot land will likely be inundated by reservoirs to create this technique.

One other key query for such a design is whether or not the system can have a last dam and energy station that may permit operators to manage the general movement of the principle river earlier than it traverses nations downstream.

Specialists say {that a} last dam, which might embody an influence station and be situated nearer to the de facto border with India, can be an elective addition to the principle venture due to the fee, challenges and potential threat.

A paper by Chinese language authorities scientists printed within the Nature journal Communications Earth & Surroundings earlier this yr appeared to verify that two reservoirs upstream of the diversion tunnels will regulate how a lot water goes into these tunnels, whereas a 3rd, downstream, will regulate the water because it flows again into the principle river. However specialists stress that till China releases extra particulars, unbiased efforts to evaluate the venture can solely be primarily based on greatest guesses.

“With what we all know it's almost unimaginable to grasp (or) consider the potential impacts that the venture can have,” mentioned Rafael Jan Pablo Schmitt, a hydropower knowledgeable on the College of California–Santa Barbara, who mentioned the simulation with CNN and the Stimson Heart.

What is evident is that to construct the hydropower system, Chinese language engineers and hydrologists might want to function in notoriously difficult situations. The river runs by means of one of many world’s most seismically energetic areas, the place even the mountains themselves are persevering with to develop by millimeters every year – risking disruption to rigorously calibrated engineering.

“The problem will likely be to construct a system that may mitigate or keep away from security threat,” mentioned Eyler. “The system may be very sophisticated. There’s a whole lot of concrete poured for a number of dams and tunnels chopping by means of seismically energetic mountains. China prioritizes dam security … however are you able to mitigate threat within the Himalayas?”

Landslides, particles flows and glacial lake outburst floods are all options of the world which might be changing into extra unpredictable with local weather change and have the potential to break infrastructure and put individuals downstream in danger if the venture can’t cope.

Specialists say Chinese language engineers are among the many greatest on the planet and can have designed mitigation efforts for earthquakes and different hazards – however these will likely be untested in such an surroundings.

“It’s simply staggering that (Chinese language officers) would decide to constructing this that far out in such a difficult geopolitical and geotechnical surroundings,” mentioned Darrin Magee, a scholar of Chinese language hydropower at Western Washington College within the US. “If China’s management is now satisfied that it may go toe to toe with the world’s main AI builders … it’s good to have a principally limitless supply of electrical energy in your again pocket,” he added.

And as Beijing appears to be like to swap imported petroleum for home-grown electrical energy, “they’re betting on a payoff that’s going to final a long time,” Magee mentioned.

China has a historical past of constructing advanced and controversial dams.

The Three Gorges venture – a dam rising almost half the peak of the Empire State Constructing – required uprooting greater than 1,000,000 individuals earlier than it started operation in 2003, and has had a mixed record on flood control , regardless of guarantees that it might serve this objective.

At the moment, China’s rivers are dotted with hydropower tasks, whereas cutting-edge transmission traces carry high-voltage electrical energy from rural and mountainous areas to the skyscrapers, AC models and electrical automobiles of city China.

Almost a third of the full put in capability of hydropower globally as of 2024 was in China, and the nation is on monitor to fulfill targets for brand new capability early – a part of Xi’s push to affect China as he goals for bold local weather objectives and vitality safety.

In Tibet, Chinese language authorities goal to remodel the area right into a inexperienced vitality hub. In that imaginative and prescient, hydropower is linked to sprawling installations of photo voltaic and wind farms which might be used to energy a high-altitude supercomputing trade and ship electrical energy eastward, whereas “boosting native individuals’s livelihood and prosperity.”

However this plan additionally locations the infrastructure wanted for China’s technological and vitality transition within the coronary heart of an ecologically delicate area.

On the Nice Bend, the Yarlung Tsangpo is certain on two sides by the world’s deepest canyon, reduce right into a panorama of pristine forest flanked by mountains and designated considered one of China’s national-level nature reserves.

There, towering cypress bushes have grown for a whole lot of years and weak or endangered species like Bengal tigers, clouded leopards, black bears, and pink pandas dwell in habitats that morph with the rising geography – and new plant and animal species proceed to be found.

“The Nice Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo is likely one of the most extraordinary geological and ecological phenomena on the planet,” mentioned Ruth Gamble, an environmental, cultural and local weather historian of Tibet at La Trobe College in Australia. “Inside a few hundred kilometers you go from peaks of almost 8,000 meters to tropical jungles.”

For years, scientists and rights teams have raised considerations about infrastructure improvement on this space.

In a paper printed final yr, scientists from Peking College in Beijing referred to as for intensive biodiversity surveys to be “urgently performed earlier than the dam venture commences” in order that the “worth of native nature is sufficiently recognized and the dam’s environmental impacts may be precisely assessed.” The corresponding authors didn't reply to a CNN request for remark.

German-based rights group the Society for Threatened Peoples earlier this yr despatched a letter to the United Nations Human Rights Council accusing China of violating its personal rules that limit putting manufacturing amenities in core or buffer zones of nature reserves.

Beijing earlier this yr mentioned the venture “strictly adhered” to an ecological safety regulation and included an “superior environmental monitoring system” to stop impacts on “key ecological zones and the habitats of uncommon wildlife.”

An organization discover reviewed by CNN confirmed {that a} state-owned entity concerned with setting up the venture was in search of technical consulting companies to evaluate biodiversity impacts. The discover, dated October final yr, wrote that such an evaluation was a “prerequisite” for acquiring a building allow because the hydropower base “can't keep away from the character reserve” space of the canyon. The outcomes of an evaluation don't seem to have been made public.

Throughout his go to to Tibet in July, Premier Li exhorted these concerned within the venture to “be sure that the ecological surroundings just isn't broken.” However specialists query how infrastructure of this scale couldn't have an effect.

“Rivers don’t cease at nationwide park borders, and neither do snow leopards or different forms of animals, and even crops and bushes,” mentioned Gamble.

One other looming query is how deeply the venture will disrupt the area’s individuals, a few of whom have lived for generations in a nook of the nation largely untouched by China’s infrastructure ambitions.

A number of tens of 1000's of individuals dwell within the counties the place the tasks will likely be constructed, amongst them indigenous teams together with the Monpa and Lhoba individuals, two of the nation’s smallest formally acknowledged ethnic minorities.

Chinese language officers have acknowledged the venture would require “relocating native communities” in Tibet and mentioned “new locations of worship” had been situated close to “newly constructed residential areas” – an indication of the disruption to every day and cultural life related to the venture.

Native officers have reported verifying family registrations for the eventual village relocation and say they're scrambling to doc what they described on social media as a surge of migrant employees attracted by the venture.

Governments in Mainling metropolis and Medog county, the place the downstream part of the venture is being constructed, each issued warnings to “crack down harshly” on any crimes that would disrupt a “main nationwide building venture.”

In Medog county, movies posted by social media customers present lengthy traces of automobiles and vans flying Chinese language flags and propaganda banners, transporting villagers from their hometown to new abodes nearer to the de facto China-India border.

“Shifting takes individuals and belongings, however the recollections keep behind,” one girl who mentioned she was being relocated wrote on social media. “Arriving on the new location, I really feel a mixture of feelings, uncertain after I’ll be capable to go to my hometown once more,” she mentioned.

It’s unclear if these residents’ houses will likely be immediately impacted by dam building, however that social media consumer wrote they had been shifting as a result of “hydropower venture.” Beijing has additionally lately presided over a policy of relocating villages to fortify or in some circumstances develop its declare alongside disputed boundaries.

China’s International Ministry earlier this yr mentioned Beijing’s resettlement plan for the venture would “prioritize the rights, participation, and well-being of affected residents” and “respect native non secular beliefs and cultural heritage by strategically avoiding non secular websites.” State information company Xinhua has said the venture would assist the economic system and “create new jobs,” thus “enhancing the sense of acquire, happiness and safety for individuals of all ethnic teams.”

However the dangers from hydropower tasks on the native communities “are immense,” in keeping with Tempa Gyaltsen Zamlha, deputy director of the Tibet Coverage Institute in Dharamsala, the city in India the place the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan non secular chief, and his loyalists reside.

“Individuals might face pressured displacement from their ancestral houses … destruction to the supply of native earnings, destruction of native ecological stability and wildlife habitat, inflow of migrant employees from China changing the native inhabitants within the area,” he mentioned.

Considerations concerning the venture are additionally being acutely felt downstream in India, the place the Yarlung Tsangpo turns into referred to as the Brahmaputra – a mighty waterway that helps fishing and farming in India and Bangladesh earlier than in the end emptying into the Bay of Bengal.

The highest official in India’s Arunachal Pradesh, simply over the de facto border from Tibet, warned in July that the dam posed an existential risk to the individuals of the area and could possibly be used as a “water bomb” by China.

“China can't be trusted. Nobody is aware of what they may do and when,” Chief Minister Pema Khandu mentioned in an interview with the Press Belief of India, pointing to how releasing or withholding water might overwhelm or dry out his area.

In New Delhi, officers earlier this yr said they had been “rigorously monitoring” China’s hydropower plans and vowed “mandatory measures to guard our pursuits, together with preventive and corrective measures to safeguard life and livelihood of Indian residents.” CNN has reached out to India’s Ministry of Exterior Affairs for touch upon the venture and China’s info and knowledge sharing round it.

The state of affairs additionally threatens to upset an advanced diplomatic stability between China and India as they attempt to ease tensions alongside their closely militarized border. Throughout a gathering in New Delhi in August, high officers from each side mentioned “trans-border rivers cooperation,” and China agreed to share hydrological knowledge “throughout emergency conditions,” in keeping with an Indian authorities readout .

China already has a controversial monitor document of operating dams alongside one other transnational river, the Mekong. Its operators there have been accused of inflicting drought in Vietnam through the use of reservoirs and dams to govern the river to maximise power-generation – a declare Beijing denies.

For the YX venture, Chinese language researchers and officers have performed up its potential to mitigate flood threat, saying it might assist safeguard downstream areas as flooding turns into extra unsure as a consequence of local weather change.

Specialists agree an upstream dam might have a constructive influence on flooding – a serious difficulty in each India and Bangladesh, the place excessive floods throughout monsoon seasons take lives and devastate crops and houses throughout the nations’ densely populated floodplains – however say it’s unimaginable to know with out extra info.

“Whereas the dam might probably regulate monsoon floods, mismanagement – equivalent to sudden water releases – would possibly intensify flood dangers,” mentioned water governance knowledgeable Anamika Barua, a professor on the Indian Institute of Expertise Guwahati in Assam, one other Indian area traversed by the river. “Clear knowledge sharing and cooperative administration will likely be crucial to lowering disputes.”

And whereas the Brahmaputra attracts most of its waters from tributaries and monsoon rains somewhat than the Yarlung Tsangpo, adjustments within the waterflow upstream might disrupt the pure pulse of the river and the form of sediment and fish it carries – key components for the river and delta ecosystems downstream.

For these dwelling simply over the de facto border, the huge unknowns about China’s venture are already having an influence.

There, officers from India’s largest state-backed hydropower agency are pushing ahead their very own venture – a 11,200 megawatt dam on the identical river – spurred by the hydropower improvement upstream.

That venture would require relocating villages residence to indigenous teams that depend on farming for subsistence – and has sparked native opposition and concern, in keeping with individuals acquainted with the state of affairs.

“They hold saying ‘China this’ and ‘China that,’ however we don’t even know what China is constructing,” Tagori Mize, a spokesperson for a neighborhood indigenous farmers group instructed CNN. “We're not even being instructed the place we'll dwell. Nothing is evident.”

With each nations getting ready their tasks, specialists like Stimson’s Eyler see one other final result from China’s push: a dam-building race.

“If the 2 nations might work collectively on the general design of the mega-dam system, then some threat could possibly be averted,” he mentioned. However in any other case, for the river, “a dam constructing race between India and China is a race to the underside.”

EDITOR’S NOTE: How we created our simulation of the hydropower system CNN and specialists from the Stimson Heart’s Power, Water, and Sustainability Program in Washington created a simulation of 1 potential design for the hydropower venture on the decrease reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo. The simulation was created utilizing official statements and open-source info together with satellite tv for pc imagery, social media posts, analysis papers, official firm and native authorities paperwork, as nicely evaluation of the encompassing geography and technical assessments by the Stimson Heart, with suggestions from outdoors specialists. There are totally different ranges of confidence for various points of the design.

Figuring out the situation of the Mainling dam: CNN reviewed and geolocated social media posts from Tibet suggesting places for dam website surveys, in addition to satellite tv for pc imagery exhibiting suspected new firm buildings and factories. A young from a state-owned firm concerned within the venture supplied an in depth description of the Mainling dam website. CNN geolocated it close to Tashi Rabten city, matching the situation indicated by the social media posts and satellite tv for pc pictures. Based mostly on this info, CNN concluded the primary dam can be on the valley close to Tashi Rabten city and shared it with Stimson Heart. Later, Chinese language Premier Li Qiang in July attended a groundbreaking ceremony for the YX venture at a dam website in Mainling, in keeping with Chinese language state media. CNN geolocated the location of the ceremony, which confirmed its earlier findings.

Projecting the situation of a second dam at Pei City: CNN reviewed social media posts from the world and satellite tv for pc imagery to find out an estimated location for the portion of the venture that may divert the river by means of the mountain. A number of indicators indicated a location close to Pei city, together with a plaque at Datogka village, courting again to the early 2000s, which mentioned it might be the location of a future Yarlung Tsangpo dam. Social media posts report building employee dormitories for the dam venture at Yusong village, downstream of Pei city and Datogka village. A neighborhood authorities planning doc reviewed by CNN confirms that one of many Pei city objectives is to construct the city as a “key nationwide hydropower vitality hub” and features a map exhibiting the bulk of the present city will likely be stored intact, which suggests a small portion will likely be inundated, indicating the water degree of the Pei city reservoir will likely be very low. Chinese language chief Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang to Tibet visited Yani Wetland on journeys to Tibet lately, and each emphasised the significance of ecological preservation, suggesting that the wetland will likely be preserved a minimum of partially.

Projecting the situation of tunnels and hydropower stations: CNN reviewed publicly out there patents that appeared to have been filed throughout the design of the venture and an official tender, each from a state-owned firm concerned within the YX venture, in addition to a 2023 academic study , to make estimations concerning the location of the tunnel system and the hydropower stations inside it. Satellite tv for pc and social media imagery additionally present the widening and closure to public use of a freeway from Pei city space to Medog county, suggesting it could possibly be used to assist tunnel building close by. The precise places of all 5 cascade hydropower stations stay unknown. Nevertheless, the CNN/Stimson crew believes some will likely be contained in the tunnel system and there could possibly be a roughly 700-meter drop in elevation between every of these energy stations, with a complete of three energy stations constructed beneath the mountains and an adjoining valley. Along with an influence station on the Mainling dam and a projected one additional downstream, there can be a complete of 5 energy stations, matching the official disclosure. A serious state-owned firm and subsidiary of PowerChina concerned with the venture printed a young in Could 2024 noting the final places of its 5 bases. This info, taken alongside a assessment of designs for patents from the identical firm and a technical evaluation, recommend potential places for 2 of the ability stations throughout the tunnel system. A 3rd additionally in that system could possibly be situated nearer to the principle river to permit for water discharge there. Specialists have additionally urged the Jinping II hydropower system in Sichuan could possibly be a check mannequin for the YX venture. That system additionally includes a construction with a low dam and a single hydropower station on the outlet of a tunnel redirecting water.

Contemplating the ultimate hydropower station and a possible dam: There may be much less publicly out there info out there concerning the location of the fifth hydropower station, in addition to concerning whether or not there can be a last dam within the system. A paper from Chinese language scientists printed within the Nature journal Communications Earth & Surroundings mentioned there can be a 3rd reservoir that “redirects water again to the pure river” downstream of the tunnel system. Specialists interviewed by CNN recommend {that a} last dam on the principle river could possibly be pointless to the design and create further engineering challenges, although it might allow the downstream movement of water to be higher regulated. Some proof, together with social media dialogue, satellite tv for pc imagery exhibiting large-scale building, road-widening tasks, entry restrictions recommend one potential location can be a dam close to Xirang village, not removed from the de facto border with India.