NFL Week 17 Betting Report: 'We're Gonna be Huge Eagles Followers'

[ad_1] NFL Week 17 odds embody a trio of Christmas Day video games that may little question entice the general public betting plenty. By no means thoughts that these contests aren’t as interesting as they have been only a few weeks in the past.

However the weekend greater than makes up for it, most notably with a marquee matchup of Eagles vs. Payments in America’s Recreation of the Week on FOX.

"We have now a reasonably sizable resolution on that sport," Caesars Sports activities vice chairman of buying and selling Craig Mucklow mentioned.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Eagles-Payments and extra, as we dive into NFL Week 17 betting nuggets.

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NFL Rocks on FOX

The Payments are 11-4 straight up (SU) and 7-8 in opposition to the unfold (ATS), successful their final 4 video games (2-2 ATS). The Eagles (10-5 SU/9-6 ATS) received and coated of their final two outings, after a three-game dropping streak.

Philadelphia has already clinched the NFC East, assuring a house playoff sport, however can’t get the No. 1 seed and the bye. On the flip aspect, Buffalo is a wild-card crew in the meanwhile however may nonetheless win the AFC East if issues fall proper, and thereby safe a house postseason sport.

The truth is, the Payments nonetheless have a slim shot on the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Caesars Sports activities opened the Payments as 3-point house favorites for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. The unfold is shifting towards the underdog Eagles, now all the way down to Buffalo -1 as of Wednesday afternoon.

However that’s not indicative of the legal responsibility.

"It’s all Payments cash. We’re gonna be massive Eagles followers," Mucklow mentioned, noting Philly noticed sharp motion, however the public is on Buffalo. "Sharp cash began Tuesday on Eagles +3 and has continued all the way down to +1."

Christmas Feast

Granted, on this Christmas Day, 4 of the six groups concerned are out of playoff competition. And the Lions are getting ready to elimination.

However fortunately for bookmakers, disdain may also entice the general public betting plenty. That’s the case for the Thursday evening sport between the Broncos and Chiefs.

"The Chiefs are the second-most-hated crew in America, behind the Patriots," Mucklow mentioned. "We’ll get individuals betting simply to oppose the Chiefs and other people betting the Broncos as a result of they need to win."

Certainly, over the previous a number of years, loads of NFL bettors have grown weary of Kansas Metropolis (6-9 SU/5-10 ATS. On Christmas evening, these bettors hope to revel extra within the Chiefs’ downfall.

Denver (12-3 SU/6-9 ATS) went on an 11-game win streak, which led to Week 16. Nevertheless, the Broncos are nonetheless in a battle to win their division and the AFC’s No. 1 seed, as effectively.

Mucklow identified {that a} week in the past, the Broncos have been -5.5 vs. the Chiefs on the look-ahead line, totally as a result of Ok.C. is with out Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL). Now, with backup Gardner Minshew out on account of a knee harm, as effectively, the unfold has greater than doubled.

Simply since Sunday evening, the Broncos have gone from -10.5 to -13.5, the place the unfold rests Wednesday afternoon. Bettors are backing the massive highway favourite.

"Denver has lots to play for, together with the No. 1 seed. And the Chiefs are on their final legs," Mucklow mentioned.

The Christmas slate opens with the Cowboys (6-8-1 SU/7-8 ATS) vs. the Commanders (4-11 SU/5-10 ATS) at 1 p.m. ET. Caesars opened Dallas as a modest 3.5-point favourite. However with Washington beginning third-string QB Josh Johnson, the road steadily expanded and is at Cowboys -8.5 (-105) as of Wednesday afternoon.

"We’ll lose massive time on Dallas," Mucklow mentioned. "That is gonna be the story of the week within the NFL. There are a ton of accidents."

At 4:30 p.m. ET, it’s Lions (8-7 SU/7-8 ATS) vs. Vikings (7-8 SU and ATS). Detroit opened -5.5 and is already past a landing favourite at -7.5, with Minnesota set to start out third-string rookie QB Max Brosmer.

"That sport could have the most important betting deal with of the day," Mucklow mentioned. "The shoppers are backing Detroit. We’re gonna want the Vikings to do one thing. Vikings outright could be good.

"And we’re actually gonna want a low-scoring time. We want an Beneath, massive time."

With the Vikes’ harm scenario, the whole is all the way down to 43 (Over -115) from a forty five.5 opener. However Mucklow anticipates that the general public will likely be hammering the Over.

NFL Sharp Facet

Skilled bettor Randy McKay had a winner final week, taking the Titans +3.5 vs. the Chiefs, with Tennessee rolling to a 26-9 upset victory. McKay likes one other house underdog this week.

"The second-to-last week of the NFL season is all about eventualities. One massive one this week is Cleveland +4.5," McKay mentioned of Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET Steelers-Browns sport. "I guess the Browns +4.5 and +3.5, and I nonetheless suggest +3.

"Cleveland at house vs. the Steelers is at all times the Browns’ Tremendous Bowl. Plus, if Baltimore loses to Inexperienced Bay on Saturday evening, then this sport means nothing to Pittsburgh. And coach Mike Tomlin has mentioned he'll relaxation gamers to get them prepared for the playoffs."

Prime-Time Payouts?

For all of the bets sure to come back in on the Christmas video games and Eagles-Payments, the Saturday and Sunday prime-time video games are shaping up as larger liabilities at Caesars Sports activities.

"The one sport that’s actually gonna concern me is Ravens at Packers," Mucklow mentioned of an 8 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff. "I determine we’re going to see Packers cash."

That’s even when Jordan Love doesn’t clear concussion protocol and Malik Willis begins for Inexperienced Bay (9-5-1 SU/6-9 ATS), which has moved from -2.5 to -3 this week. Baltimore (7-8 SU/6-9 ATS) could possibly be with out Lamar Jackson (again), who didn’t follow Wednesday.

"Each these groups need to win. We’re gonna be massive Ravens followers," Mucklow mentioned. "This sport and the Bears-49ers would be the big-handle video games of the week.

Chicago vs. San Francisco is at 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday. Caesars opened San Francisco (11-4 SU and ATS) as a 2.5-point house favourite and is as much as Niners -3 vs. the Bears (11-4 SU/9-5-1 ATS).

"Ideally, we’d need the 49ers to win by one or two right here," Mucklow mentioned. "The Bears are first rate losers for us on the moneyline, and the 49ers are an enormous loser for us on the unfold. That’s what’s creating this center scenario."

I Like Huge Bets and I Can not Lie

Let’s take a step again to Monday evening and acknowledge that, significantly in the course of the holidays, a fowl within the hand is value two within the bush. Particularly when that fowl is a excessive five-figure payout on a pizza-money guess.

As I famous earlier this week, a DraftKings Sportsbook buyer strung collectively a $10, 15-leg parlay, going in opposition to the unfold in each sport from Saturday-Monday evening.

Understanding how troublesome it may be to even win a two- or three-leg point-spread parlay, it was downright miraculous that this one received to 14 appropriate by Sunday evening.

All that remained was the 49ers protecting as 5.5-point highway favorites vs. the Colts. If that occurred, the shopper’s 10 bucks would explode into $165,057.

However DraftKings additionally provided a cashout possibility earlier than kickoff: $72,363.59.

The client took that possibility and nonetheless made out like gangbusters. Then the bettor put $5,000 of these winnings on 49ers -5.5 (-105), to probably win one other $4,761.90.

That received there, too, in San Fran’s 48-27 victory. So whereas the bettor didn’t get the massive six-figure payday, it’s nonetheless a Merry Christmas with a complete revenue of greater than $77,000.

Could all of us be even a fraction this lucky for the vacations.

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He's a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s primarily based in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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