Concern and intimidation forward of vote held by navy rulers

[ad_1] Jonathan Head South East Asia correspondent, Mandalay, Myanmar

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/8554/live/8995d480-e234-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/8554/live/8995d480-e234-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8554/live/8995d480-e234-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/8554/live/8995d480-e234-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/8554/live/8995d480-e234-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/8554/live/8995d480-e234-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/8554/live/8995d480-e234-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8554/live/8995d480-e234-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Jonathan Head/ BBC A child sitting on the ground in the aisle between two rows of chairs at a campaign rally in Mandalay. He is looking away from the stage, towards the camera. " class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Jonathan Head/ BBC A marketing campaign rally in Mandalay forward of a controversial election being held by Myanmar's navy rulers on 28 December

On a patch of tough floor close to the Irrawaddy River, aspiring member of parliament and retired Lieutenant-Basic Tayza Kyaw tries to muster some enthusiasm from his viewers with a speech promising them higher occasions.

He's the candidate for the Union Solidarity and Improvement Occasion (USDP), backed by Myanmar's navy, in Aungmyaythazan, a constituency within the metropolis of Mandalay.

The group of 300-400 clutch the branded hats and flags they have been given, however quickly wilt within the afternoon warmth, some dozing off.

Kids run and play in between the rows of chairs. Many of those households are victims of the earthquake which badly broken Mandalay and surrounding areas in March, and are hoping for a handout. They disappear the second the rally finishes.

A 'sham' election

On Sunday the folks of Myanmar get their first alternative to vote in an election for the reason that navy seized energy in a coup almost 5 years in the past, setting off a devastating civil struggle.

However the ballot, already delayed many occasions by the ruling junta, is being broadly condemned as a sham. The most well-liked social gathering, the Nationwide League for Democracy, has been dissolved, and its chief, Aung San Suu Kyi, is locked up in an undisclosed jail.

Voting, which can occur in three phases over a interval of a month, is not going to even be potential in massive elements of the nation nonetheless consumed by struggle. Even the place voting is happening, it's marred by a local weather of concern and intimidation.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/57b9/live/38d10330-e248-11f0-aae2-2191c0e48a3b.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/57b9/live/38d10330-e248-11f0-aae2-2191c0e48a3b.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/57b9/live/38d10330-e248-11f0-aae2-2191c0e48a3b.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/57b9/live/38d10330-e248-11f0-aae2-2191c0e48a3b.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/57b9/live/38d10330-e248-11f0-aae2-2191c0e48a3b.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/57b9/live/38d10330-e248-11f0-aae2-2191c0e48a3b.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/57b9/live/38d10330-e248-11f0-aae2-2191c0e48a3b.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/57b9/live/38d10330-e248-11f0-aae2-2191c0e48a3b.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="A map of Myanmar with a title of "Where are Myanmar's elections being held?” and a subtitle of "About 30% of townships will vote in first phase of elections”. It shows all of the country's 330 townships and colours them by their election status: Light blue areas represent townships voting on 28 December (102 townships), blue represents those voting on 11 January (100 townships), light blue indicates places where no election date is set yet (72 townships), and grey areas show where no elections are being held (56 townships). The cities of Mandalay in the north, Nay Pyi Taw in the centre, and Yangon in the south are labelled. The source is given as the Union Election Commission and Data for Myanmar" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> When the BBC tried asking folks on the rally in Mandalay what they considered the election, we have been informed to not by social gathering officers. They may say the fallacious factor, one man defined – they do not know how one can converse to journalists.

The variety of plain-clothes navy intelligence officers current there helps clarify their nervousness. In a dictatorship which has criminalised liking Fb pages criticising the election, or utilizing the phrase revolution, even these staunchly pro-military social gathering activists feared the implications of permitting a overseas journalist the prospect to ask uncensored questions.

The identical concern lingers on the streets of Mandalay. At a market stall promoting contemporary river fish the purchasers all refused to reply what they considered the election. We've no selection, so now we have to vote, one mentioned. The fish vendor shooed us away. "You'll convey me hassle," she mentioned.

Just one lady was courageous sufficient to talk frankly, however we would have liked to discover a personal place to satisfy, and to hide her identification, simply to listen to her view of the election.

"This election is a lie," she mentioned. "Everyone seems to be afraid. Everybody has misplaced their humanity and their freedom. So many individuals have died, been tortured or fled to different international locations. If the navy retains operating the nation, how can issues change?"

She wouldn't vote, she mentioned, however she knew that call carried dangers.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/8efb/live/468068d0-e235-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/8efb/live/468068d0-e235-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8efb/live/468068d0-e235-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/8efb/live/468068d0-e235-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/8efb/live/468068d0-e235-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/8efb/live/468068d0-e235-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/8efb/live/468068d0-e235-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/8efb/live/468068d0-e235-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Lulu Luo/ BBC People walking down the street in Mandalay, past parked two-wheelers. Also pictured is a dog smelling the ground." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Lulu Luo/ BBC Most individuals we encountered didn't wish to focus on the election

The navy authorities imposed a brand new regulation in July criminalising "any speech, organising, inciting, protesting, or distributing leaflets as a way to destroy part of the electoral course of".

Earlier this month Tayzar San, a health care provider and one of many first to organise a protest towards the 2021 coup, was additionally among the many first to be charged underneath the regulation, after he distributed leaflets calling for a boycott of the election. The junta has supplied a reward for info resulting in his arrest.

In September three younger folks in Yangon got sentences of 42 to 49 years every for posting stickers displaying a bullet and a poll field collectively.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/1877/live/b91ad360-e241-11f0-90c4-a93300c44c63.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/1877/live/b91ad360-e241-11f0-90c4-a93300c44c63.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/1877/live/b91ad360-e241-11f0-90c4-a93300c44c63.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/1877/live/b91ad360-e241-11f0-90c4-a93300c44c63.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/1877/live/b91ad360-e241-11f0-90c4-a93300c44c63.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/1877/live/b91ad360-e241-11f0-90c4-a93300c44c63.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/1877/live/b91ad360-e241-11f0-90c4-a93300c44c63.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/1877/live/b91ad360-e241-11f0-90c4-a93300c44c63.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Tayzar San/Facebook Tayzar San distributing the leaflets boycotting the election, along with others on a busy street." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Tayzar San/Fb Tayzar San distributing leaflets boycotting the election

"Co-operate and crush all these harming the union," instructions a big crimson poster looming over the households and {couples} having fun with a late afternoon stroll underneath the outdated red-brick partitions of the royal palace in Mandalay.

On this menacing local weather something approaching a free vote is unimaginable.

A normal's gambit

But the junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has a spring in his step today. He appears assured this extraordinary election, the place there can be no voting in any respect in as a lot as one half of the nation, will give him the legitimacy he has failed to accumulate throughout his 5 catastrophic years in energy.

He even attended a Christmas mass in Yangon's cathedral and condemned the "hatred and resentment between people" which led to "domination, oppression, and violence in human communities".

This, from a person charged by the UN and human rights teams with genocide towards Muslim Rohingyas, whose coup set off a civil struggle which, based on the information evaluation group ACLED, has killed 90,000 folks.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/55c3/live/816b7560-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/55c3/live/816b7560-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/55c3/live/816b7560-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/55c3/live/816b7560-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/55c3/live/816b7560-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/55c3/live/816b7560-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/55c3/live/816b7560-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/55c3/live/816b7560-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="AFP via Getty Images Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing pictured at an event in October 2025. " class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> AFP by way of Getty Photographs Myanmar's navy ruler Min Aung Hlaing

Min Aung Hlaing's election gambit has the total diplomatic assist of China, which, bizarrely for a one-party state, is giving technical and monetary assist for this multi-party train. It's more likely to be reluctantly accepted in the remainder of Asia too.

His military, newly geared up with Chinese language and Russian weapons, has been regaining floor misplaced over the previous two years to the assorted armed teams opposing the coup. He's clearly hoping to incorporate extra reconquered territory within the third stage of the election on the finish of January.

With Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD out of the image his USDP is all however assured to win. Within the final, free election in 2020, the USDP received solely six % of parliamentary seats.

Some observers have famous that Min Aung Hlaing shouldn't be well-liked even inside his personal regime, or his personal social gathering, the place his management qualities are questioned. He'll most likely maintain the presidency after the election, however his energy will, to some extent, be diluted by the resumption of parliamentary politics, albeit with out many of the events that received seats within the 2020 election.

The election is clearly seen by China as an off-ramp, a manner for the navy to get out of the harmful impasse attributable to its ill-judged coup.

'No-one is able to compromise'

Even a brief distance from the apparently peaceable metropolis lifetime of Mandalay, the deep scars left by Myanmar's civil struggle, which remains to be removed from over, are seen.

On the other aspect of the Irrawaddy River lies the spectacular temple complicated at Mingun, as soon as a preferred vacationer attraction. Getting there requires a brief drive alongside a riverside highway, however for the previous 4 years this, like a lot of the realm round Mandalay, has been contested territory, the place volunteer Folks's Defence Forces management many villages and launch ambushes towards military convoys.

To achieve Mingun we would have liked to get via a number of checkpoints. We sat in a tea store with the native police commander to barter our passage.

He was a younger man, sporting the massive pressure of his job on his face. He had a revolver caught behind his trousers, and two even youthful males – boys, maybe - carrying military-issue assault rifles sat shut by as his bodyguards.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/77bd/live/fe6245d0-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/77bd/live/fe6245d0-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/77bd/live/fe6245d0-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/77bd/live/fe6245d0-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/77bd/live/fe6245d0-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/77bd/live/fe6245d0-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/77bd/live/fe6245d0-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/77bd/live/fe6245d0-e236-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Lulu Luo/ BBC Two boys are carrying guns and walking down the street, their backs to the camera. " class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Lulu Luo/ BBC Many younger males have taken up arms on either side of this battle

He mentioned he needed to carry these weapons simply to maneuver concerning the village.

On his cellphone have been photographs of his opponents: younger males, raggedly dressed, with an assortment of weapons they might have smuggled from border areas of Myanmar or obtained from useless troopers and cops. One group, calling itself the Unicorn Guerrilla Power, was his hardest adversary. They by no means negotiated, he mentioned. "If we see one another we all the time shoot. That is the way in which it's."

The election, he added, wouldn't be happening in many of the villages to the north of him. "Everybody right here has taken sides on this battle. It's so difficult and tough. However no-one is able to compromise."

After an hour we have been informed it might be too harmful to succeed in Mingun. The PDFs may not know you might be journalists, he mentioned.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/643f/live/406bb860-e239-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/643f/live/406bb860-e239-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/643f/live/406bb860-e239-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/643f/live/406bb860-e239-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/643f/live/406bb860-e239-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/643f/live/406bb860-e239-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/643f/live/406bb860-e239-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/643f/live/406bb860-e239-11f0-9988-abf27981bd79.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Jonathan Head/ BBC Young women cycling on a road past the royal palace in Mandalay. " class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Jonathan Head/ BBC Crowds exterior the outdated royal palace in Mandalay

There's little signal of compromise both from the navy males who overturned Myanmar's younger democracy, and who now wish to revamp their regime with a veneer of quasi-democratic respectability.

Requested concerning the appalling civilian casualties for the reason that coup, and the air strikes towards colleges and hospitals, Basic Tayza Kyaw blamed them fully on those that opposed the navy takeover.

"They selected armed resistance," he mentioned. "Those that are with the enemy can't be seen because the folks, based on the regulation. So, they're simply terrorists."

Folks in Mandalay say this election has not one of the color and power of the 2020 election. There have been few rallies. Solely 5 different events are being allowed to problem the USDP nationwide, and none has its assets and institutional backing. Turnout shouldn't be anticipated to be excessive.

And but such is the concern of potential retribution, or simply exhaustion from the civil struggle, many Burmese folks will nonetheless go to the polling stations, no matter their views of the election.