CFP Semifinal Betting Report: ‘We’ll Want the Geese on Friday Night time’

[ad_1] 4 intriguing groups. Two big video games.

Nonetheless, these two matchups are drawing very several types of motion within the School Soccer Playoff semifinal odds market.

"It seems to be like we’re gonna get extra two-way motion on Miami-Ole Miss, and Oregon-Indiana could be the polar reverse, with one-way site visitors," Caesars Sports activities head of soccer buying and selling Joey Feazel mentioned.

Bookmakers and sharp bettors provide their insights on CFP semifinal odds for the Thursday and Friday showdowns.

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Soccer Fiesta

Within the CFP quarterfinals, No. 6 Ole Miss supplied all of the aptitude that draws the general public betting plenty — primarily, an athletic and riveting-to-watch quarterback and loads of factors.

The Rebels, 6-point Sugar Bowl underdogs to SEC rival and No. 3 Georgia, rallied from a 21-12 halftime deficit to submit a 39-34 victory. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss’ heroics paved the way in which to an upset.

No. 10 Miami has gotten bettors’ consideration through its stout protection, a key to posting back-to-back CFP upsets.

Within the quarterfinals, the Hurricanes had been 7.5-point Cotton Bowl ‘canines vs. No. 2 Ohio State. The ‘Canes shut out the Buckeyes within the first half, taking a 14-0 lead, then fended off a second-half comeback to win 24-14.

So each Miami, at 12-2 straight up (SU) and 9-5 in opposition to the unfold (ATS), and Ole Miss (13-1 SU/7-7 ATS) are drawing {dollars} for Thursday’s 7:30 p.m. Fiesta Bowl semifinal.

Caesars Sports activities opened Miami as a 3-point favourite, and the road went to Miami -3.5 Friday, the place it remained Wednesday afternoon.

"Each of those groups had excellent quarterfinal performances. These are two groups that fought by way of adversity, and that’s caught bettors’ eyes," Feazel mentioned. "Bettors are both laying the factors with Miami or taking Ole Miss on the moneyline.

"The sport is driving two-way motion, with just a bit bit extra on Ole Miss as an underdog on the moneyline."

Translation: Rebels backers are pulling for the modest upset and a visit to the championship sport.

If that motion persists, Caesars might be rooting for what oddsmakers time period the Tremendous Bowl center: a Miami win and an Ole Miss cowl.

Constructed for the Futures

Whereas a Miami win by a degree or two is at present a perfect consequence in CFP semifinal odds, there’s extra to this matchup than simply the sport itself. At this stage of the season, School Soccer Playoff futures odds come extra into play, as properly.

When factoring in Caesars’ championship place on the ultimate 4 groups, Feazel wouldn’t thoughts Ole Miss persevering with its run within the wake of coach Lane Kiffin’s exit to LSU 5 weeks in the past.

"With Ole Miss shedding Lane Kiffin, they had been sort of an afterthought," Feazel mentioned. "We solely have one dangerous case for futures. Miami is the one legal responsibility. A great championship matchup can be Ole Miss vs. Oregon."

Indiana Simply Peachy

On the flip aspect, Friday’s 7:30 p.m. ET Peach Bowl kickoff is seeing lopsided motion in School Soccer Playoff semifinal odds.

No. 1 Indiana (14-0 SU/9-5 ATS) completely trucked No. 9 Alabama 38-3 within the Rose Bowl quarterfinal, simply masking as a 7.5-point favourite.

Within the Orange Bowl, No. 5 Oregon was stout on protection and hit-and-miss on offense. However the Geese dispatched No. 4 Texas Tech 23-0 as 1.5-point underdogs.

Caesars opened Indiana as a 4-point favourite vs. Oregon, and the road dipped to Indiana -3.5 on Monday. As of Wednesday afternoon, although, bettors had been way more enamored with Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers.

"Curt Cignetti and Indiana are pushing to be a brand new blue blood in faculty soccer," Feazel mentioned. "Indiana could be very environment friendly, very properly run and that has gotten bettors’ consideration.

"There’s a major quantity of Indiana motion on the unfold and the moneyline."

Serving to the Hoosiers’ trigger with the general public betting plenty: Indiana went to Oregon in Week 7 as a 7-point underdog and received 30-20.

"It’s arduous to beat the identical group twice, but when anyone can, it’ll be Cignetti’s group," Feazel mentioned. "There’s a bit little bit of sharper motion on Oregon +4. However we’re not gonna see a sluggish in site visitors on Indiana.

"We’ll want the Geese on Friday night time."

CFP Sharp Facet

School soccer betting skilled Paul Stone is taking a place on the primary matchup on the CFP semifinal oddsboard.

Many felt Lane Kiffin’s drama-filled exit from Ole Miss to LSU can be a distraction for the Rebels. Stone doesn’t see it that method and, in actual fact, sees it as a seamless motivator for Ole Miss.

So Stone is on the Rebels +3.5 vs. the Hurricanes.

"I imagine Kiffin's premature exit has galvanized the Rebels and drawn them nearer collectively," Stone mentioned. "Trinidad Chambliss is taking part in at a particularly excessive stage and possesses the elusiveness to neutralize Miami's go rush.

"I search for Chambliss to do injury together with his arm and his legs in opposition to the Hurricanes."

I Like Huge Bets and I Can not Lie

There are numerous championship futures bets on all 4 remaining groups within the CFP odds market. However a few attention-grabbing ones stand out because the semifinals strategy.

Neither wager can be thought-about a serious wager, but each might pay out massive.

Virtually a 12 months in the past, on Jan. 20, 2024, a DraftKings Sportsbook buyer put $2,000 on Indiana +15000 (150/1) to win the nationwide championship.

At the moment, the Hoosiers had been coming off a stunning 11-1 common season, earlier than shedding to Notre Dame within the first spherical of the School Soccer Playoff. However oddsmakers didn’t suppose there was any likelihood of Cignetti and Indiana incomes a second straight CFP berth, not to mention making a legit title run.

But right here the Hoosiers are. If Indiana finishes this off with a giant trophy on Jan. 19 in Miami, then the bettor banks an enormous windfall of $300,000.

Semi-similarly, on Dec. 5 — two days earlier than the CFP committee revealed the 12-team area — Miami was not anticipated to be among the many chosen. That was mirrored in DraftKings’ nationwide championship odds, with the Hurricanes lengthy pictures of +10000 (100/1).

Nonetheless, one buyer took a $560 flier on Miami. If the ‘Canes trip that protection to 2 extra victories, then the bettor pockets $56,000 in revenue.

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He's a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Observe him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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