Iran regime collapse: Who would succeed Khamenei if Republic falls

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As anti-regime protests proceed to unfold throughout Iran and questions swirl in regards to the sturdiness of Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei’s rule, a central query looms: Who would really take energy if the Islamic Republic had been to break down?

The reply, in keeping with regional specialists and Iranian opposition figures, is much from clear. It could rely much less on ideology than on how the regime falls and whether or not Iran’s safety forces fracture or maintain.

Collapse issues as a lot as succession Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow on the Basis for Protection of Democracies, stated the vital variable shouldn't be merely whether or not the regime collapses, however the way it occurs.

IRAN ON THE BRINK AS PROTESTERS MOVE TO TAKE TWO CITIES, APPEAL TO TRUMP Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks after casting his vote for the presidential runoff election on July 5, 2024 in Tehran, Iran. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Pictures)

"Regardless of being supreme chief, one has to marvel, particularly post-war and with restricted public appearances, how a lot Khamenei is instantly governing the affairs of the nation," Ben Taleblu advised Fox Information Digital. He warned Western governments towards backing a beauty transition that merely reshuffles elites.

"One factor I worry is the Western temptation for a Maduro-type or Egypt-type mannequin," he stated, referring to situations wherein entrenched safety forces retain energy below new management. "That can solely be enjoying musical chairs on the prime and won't present the Iranian individuals a pathway for significant change."

Ben Taleblu argued that Iran’s opposition faces a logistical problem greater than an ideological one: translating sustained avenue protests into organized political energy earlier than safety forces reassert management.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Particular forces stroll on the U.S. flag throughout a rally commemorating Worldwide Quds Day, also referred to as Jerusalem Day, in Tehran, Iran, on March 28, 2025. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto through Getty Pictures)

The decisive position of safety forces A number of specialists agreed that Iran’s future hinges on whether or not the regime’s coercive equipment, together with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia and the common army, stays intact.

Ben Taleblu stated the important thing issue is whether or not segments of the safety forces defect, refuse orders or fragment. "What needs to be chipped away is the regime’s coercive energy," he stated, including {that a} transition would require sustained protests, financial strikes and cracks inside safety items.

With out that, analysts warn, Iran might see a situation wherein clerical figureheads disappear however actual energy stays within the arms of armed establishments.

"That’s the worry," Ben Taleblu stated. "If the state performs musical chairs, the road is not going to accept it. Meaning a bumpier street forward."

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Members of the Basij paramilitary pressure maintain Iranian flag, Lebanese flag, flag of Hashd Shabi, flag of Quds pressure's Fatemiyoun Brigade, and a flag of Lebanon's Hezbollah, throughout a rally commemorating Worldwide Quds Day, also referred to as the Jerusalem day, in downtown Tehran, April 14, 2023. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto through Getty Pictures)

May the army take over? Some analysts level to historic precedents, together with Egypt, the place the army stepped in amid unrest. Benny Sabti, an Iran skilled at Israel’s Institute for Nationwide Safety Research, stated a military-led transition can't be dominated out, however could be fraught.

"IRGC generals might theoretically try a coup," Sabti advised Fox Information Digital, stressing that Iran’s army establishments usually are not monolithic. He distinguished between the IRGC, which he described as an ideological and uneven pressure, and the common military, which he stated is extra skilled and nationally oriented.

Sabti highlighted former armed forces chief Habibollah Sayyari for instance of a determine who has voiced restricted criticism from throughout the system. Nonetheless, he cautioned that criticism alone doesn't make a frontrunner and stated charisma issues deeply in Iranian politics.

Iranian protests intensify for the twelfth day. (The Nationwide Council of Resistance of Iran)

"There's a downside of charisma," Sabti stated. "In Iran, it is vitally vital."

Political prisoners and inside leaders Regardless of worldwide consideration on jailed activists, specialists are skeptical that Iran’s subsequent political management would emerge from throughout the nation’s jail system.

Ben Taleblu stated a long time of repression have made it almost unattainable to domesticate political management inside Iran. "What is going to come from inside are the forces of revolution," he stated. "Political management needs to be constructed exterior."

Sabti echoed that view, saying freed prisoners would probably grow to be a part of a broader system reasonably than dominant leaders.

"There gained’t be leaders popping out of jail," he stated. "They are going to be a part of a brand new system, however not charismatic leaders."

Iranian opposition chief Reza Pahlavi holds a press convention in Paris on June 23, 2025. (Joel Saget/AFP through Getty Pictures)

The exiled opposition and the Pahlavi query Supporters of Reza Pahlavi say he's rising as a focus for opposition mobilization amid escalating unrest. On January 8, Pahlavi publicly known as on Iranians to chant at 8 p.m. from their properties or within the streets and his aides stated giant crowds responded throughout a number of cities, together with Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Ahvaz and Tabriz.

These near Pahlavi describe him as advocating a secular, democratic Iran dedicated to human rights, whereas rejecting claims that he's looking for to revive the monarchy. Pahlavi has repeatedly stated the type of Iran’s future system ought to be determined by the individuals via a free constitutional course of.

"My position is to not tip the scales in favor of both monarchy or republic," Pahlavi stated. "I'll stay totally neutral within the course of to assist be certain that Iranians lastly have the precise to decide on freely."

Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American journalist and editor of the "Iran So Far Away" Substack, advised Fox Information Digital that Pahlavi is the one viable unifying determine able to guiding a transition, a view strongly contested by others within the diaspora.

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"The one one who can see this via is the crown prince," Zand stated, arguing that any distinguished determine inside Iran could be swiftly eradicated by the regime. She dismissed various opposition figures as missing legitimacy contained in the nation.

Zand stated chants supporting Pahlavi throughout current protests replicate real sentiment, not fabrication, although such claims are tough to independently confirm amid web shutdowns and state censorship.

Some specialists warning that whereas Pahlavi has visibility within the West and amongst components of the Iranian public, he stays a polarizing determine, notably amongst Iranians cautious of monarchy or exterior affect.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets Maryam Rajav at Ashraf-3 – Could 16, 2022, in Albania. (NCRI)

Rajavi and arranged opposition teams One other long-standing opposition motion, the Mujahedin-e Khalq, led by Maryam Rajavi, has acquired backing from some senior U.S. political figures from throughout the aisle through the years, together with former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Rudy Giuliani.

In an announcement to Fox Information Digital, Rajavi stated change "is not going to come from exterior Iran, nor will or not it's delivered by the desire of overseas capitals," arguing that solely an organized, nationwide resistance can overthrow the Islamic Republic.

Rajavi pointed to the Individuals’s Mojahedin Group of Iran and its "Resistance Items" because the core pressure behind current uprisings, claiming they've performed a decisive position in organizing protests and confronting safety forces at the price of heavy casualties. She stated the Nationwide Council of Resistance of Iran doesn't search energy for itself, however as an alternative proposes a six-month provisional interval following the regime’s overthrow, culminating in free elections for a constituent meeting to draft a brand new structure for a democratic, secular republic.

NCRI President-elect Maryam Rajavi stands with former Vice President Mike Pence. (NCRI )

"As soon as established, all authority shall be transferred to that Meeting, which can each choose the provisional authorities and draft the structure of the brand new republic," Rajavi stated. "Gender equality in all its aspects, the separation of faith and state, autonomy for Iranian Kurdistan and lots of different pressing issues have been ratified intimately by the NCRI."

Rajavi additionally cited what she described as broad worldwide backing for the NCRI’s platform. Critics and analysts interviewed by Fox Information Digital dispute the group’s degree of assist inside Iran. Sabti stated the MEK’s historical past of violence within the Eighties and its inflexible ideology have alienated youthful Iranians.

Talking to an NCRI convention in Washington D.C. final November, Pompeo pushed again towards critics, stating "A thriving, democratic, standard authorities in Iran—not a theocracy, not a monarchy, not an oppressive regime. This shall be an important factor for the complete world. We're ready for that day, and it will likely be a blessing to us all."

Ben Taleblu additionally warned towards Western governments "enjoying favorites" amongst exiled factions, saying legitimacy should in the end come from inside Iran.

Protesters collect as automobiles burn, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, on this display seize obtained from a social media video launched on Jan. 9, 2026. (Social Media/through Reuters)

No clear successor and a protracted street forward Regardless of intense hypothesis, specialists agreed on one level: there isn't a clear successor ready within the wings.

"We aren't there but," Sabti stated, noting that Khamenei stays alive, and the safety forces haven't fractured.

Ben Taleblu described the second as a marathon reasonably than a dash, warning towards simplistic narratives about regime collapse.

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"That is about getting the very best bridgehead to a post-Islamic Republic Iran," he stated, "in order that the forces of revolution inside can lastly grow to be voters and select their very own destiny."

Efrat Lachter is an investigative reporter and battle correspondent. Her work has taken her to 40 nations, together with Ukraine, Russia, Iraq, Syria, Sudan and Afghanistan. She is a recipient of the 2024 Knight-Wallace Fellowship for Journalism. Lachter may be adopted on X @efratlachter.