Abstract
- World wide, many individuals count on China’s—already appreciable—international affect to develop over the following decade, and extra now view Beijing as an ally or obligatory companion.
- For a lot of the world, America is globally influential and can proceed to matter, however few folks count on it to achieve in affect.
- In most international locations, expectations of Trump are decrease than 12 months in the past. His first yr again in energy appears to have induced dramatic shifts of opinion in some locations, together with India and South Africa.
- In Russia, extra folks now see Europe as an adversary, whereas views of America have softened. In China, the EU is held to be an influence participant that strikes its personal stances distinct from these of America.
- Europeans are the world’s chief pessimists. They lack religion within the EU’s means to deal on equal phrases with the US or China and fear about Russian aggression and nuclear weapons.
- European leaders ought to share larger honesty about the place Europe stands on this post-Western, “China first” world in an effort to devise a profitable technique to navigate it.
Making China nice once more
Donald Trump didn’t go into politics to make China nice once more. However that’s what the newest ballot of world public opinion from the European Council on Overseas Relations suggests he has finished within the eyes of the world.
A yr on from Trump’s return, in international locations throughout the globe, many individuals imagine China is on the verge of changing into much more highly effective. Even earlier than Trump’s dramatic intervention in Venezuela, his aggressive “America First” strategy was driving folks nearer to China. Paradoxically, his disavowal of the liberal worldwide order might have given folks licence to construct stronger hyperlinks to Beijing, since they now not really feel the necessity to fall according to a US-led alliance system. In the meantime, “the West” appears to be a spent geopolitical power for the foreseeable future. America’s conventional enemies concern it lower than they as soon as did—whereas allies now fear about falling sufferer to a predatory US.
This splitting of the West is most seen in Europe, and in what others consider Europe. Russians now regard the EU as extra of an enemy than they do the US; and Ukrainians look extra to Brussels than to Washington for succour. Most Europeans now not contemplate America a dependable ally, and they’re eager to rearm. These are the principle findings of a brand new ballot of 25,949 respondents throughout 21 international locations carried out in November 2025—one yr after Trump’s triumphant victory within the final presidential election—for ECFR and Oxford College’s Europe in a Altering World analysis mission, the fourth in a collection of such global surveys. Whereas the information predate Trump’s operation in Venezuela, lots of the traits recognized right here appear to prefigure it, and one imagines they may even be strengthened by thisintervention.
The world seems to be changing into extra open to China; or not less than not concern it—an evolution that’s in step with dominant Chinese language interpretations of world geopolitics. As ECFR set out in The Idea of China final yr, Xi Jinping and others imagine the world is experiencing “nice modifications unseen in a century”, entailing (though not confined to) an influence shift from West to East. A method the Chinese language are coping with this—and with America’s hegemony—is to work with different international locations to “democratise worldwide relations” by giving non-Western international locations extra of a voice. In a world order through which (as this yr’s survey exhibits) publics really feel their international locations are freer than ever to decide on their mates, the outcomes of the ballot can be music to the ears of decision-makers in Beijing. For decision-makers in Europe, nonetheless, the query is tips on how to reside within the really multipolar world many Europeans have lengthy dreamed of, however maybe by no means imagined would take form in fairly this fashion. Additionally they fear the Venezuela intervention legitimises the thought of China and Russia having their very own spheres of affect.
China first
Above all, the findings present that folks in every single place count on China’s (already appreciable) international affect to develop over the following decade.
China’s technological success and manufacturing energy could also be what’s driving these perceptions. Within the EU, most individuals imagine China will lead the world in making electrical autos within the subsequent ten years. That is additionally the prevailing (though nonetheless minority) view in America, the place, as in Europe, this opinion has strengthened over the past two years. Equally, the concept that China will dominate in renewable vitality applied sciences now not prevails in China alone, but in addition in America and the EU.
Not solely do extra folks assume China is on the rise geopolitically and main in necessary industries, however few appear to concern this course of occasions. Solely in Ukraine and in South Korea do majorities of individuals view China as both a rival or an adversary. Since final yr, much more folks see China particularly as an ally in each South Africa and Brazil. This turnaround is but larger in India. Relations between New Delhi and Beijing have historically been rocky; regardless of this, almost half of Indians see China as both an ally or a obligatory companion.
In a variety of different locations, folks count on their nation’s relationship with China to strengthen within the subsequent 5 years: majorities in South Africa (71%) and Brazil (52%) foresee this, as do many in Russia and Turkey. These findings appear to point out that, from the angle of a lot of the worldwide public, the multipolar order is completely suitable with the world of “China First”. In truth, China’s rise is seen as one thing that fits folks residing in most non-Western international locations. Life and not using a hegemon is how most individuals seem to think about the post-American world.
America in a post-American world
Is China’s rise inevitably resulting in America’s decline? “No” is the reply many individuals give. Solely a minority assume America will change into stronger, however many imagine it can nonetheless be globally influential. This might replicate a brand new conception of world energy: with the US now not heading a liberal worldwide order or main a Western alliance construction, however performing as only one nice energy in a post-Western world.
Few now count on American energy to truly develop: this view musters no majority help amongst any of Chinese language, Europeans, Russians, South Koreans, Ukrainians and even People. On the identical time, in China, Russia, Ukraine and the US itself, one in 4 folks count on American energy to truly decline. Nonetheless, for a lot of the world, the US is globally influential now and can proceed to matter, even when they don’t assume its affect will rise.
The shifting sands of American energy seem like undermining folks’s affinity with the US. A notable fall has taken place amongst EU residents, solely 16% of whom now contemplate the US an ally; a placing 20% see it as a rival or an enemy (a view that approaches 30% in some EU member states). This modification could also be right down to Washington’s very public and at instances brutal reappraisal of Europe, its politics and its tradition (as exhibited final yr in Vice-President J.D. Vance’s speech to the Munich Safety Convention and the USA’ new Nationwide Safety Technique), slightly than any actual deterioration in American energy. In many of the world, nonetheless, opinions about America are present process a gradual decline slightly than collapse. Simply as with views of China, international locations that consider the US in mainly adverse phrases (as both a rival or an adversary) are few and much between—solely China and Russia fall into this class. What is especially eye-catching, nonetheless, is the recognition of China amongst some key middle powers. In South Africa, over a 3rd of individuals see China as an ally, whereas solely a fifth say the identical of the US; in Brazil, related proportions of individuals (round 1 / 4) see China as an ally in the identical method they do America.
The one outlier is India—which is, nonetheless, distinctive in that related proportions of its folks see each America (54%) and Russia (46%) as allies.
There are nonetheless many individuals on the earth—notably in India, Brazil and South Africa—who count on their nation’s relations with the US to strengthen within the subsequent 5 years. (Maybe in these three international locations, it is because folks assume “the one method is up” after the historic low these relations reached in 2025.) In distinction, in South Africa, Russia, Turkey and Switzerland, extra persons are anticipating constructive progress in relations with China than they’re with the US. If there’s a race for international recognition, America is at the moment dropping to its Indo-Pacific rival.
A yr in the past Trump was a welcome determine in a Trumpian world: folks exterior Europe and South Korea held very positive expectations about his return. However this Trumpian second already seems to be over.
In most international locations, folks have downgraded their expectations of the US president. Fewer folks than 12 months in the past assume he’s good for Americans, their very own international locations and peace on the earth. On the finish of 2024, a whopping 84% of Indians thought of Trump’s victory that yr to be factor for his or her nation; now 53% do. The prevailing temper in a number of international locations has shifted from one in every of broad welcome to broad criticism.
On the identical time, in international locations as numerous as India, Turkey, China and Ukraine, substantial numbers of individuals agree Trump has not less than efficiently defended America’s pursuits on the world stage. In our final paper, we suggested that the US below Trump was changing into a extra “regular” transactional nice energy, slightly than the distinctive “liberal Leviathan” it had largely been since 1945. This yr’s information point out international publics largely agree.
The true that means of multipolarity
China’s rise and America’s journey in direction of “regular” nice energy standing additionally affect how folks view the worldwide order. Underneath President Joe Biden, the White Home talked of a world divided between democracies and autocracies—implying everyone wanted to choose sides in a type of new chilly battle, with China because the principal adversary.
Our information recommend folks around the globe don’t anticipate a bipolar, ideological battle for primacy. Quite the opposite, with the US behaving like simply one other transactional nice energy below Trump—and China establishing itself as an enormous of equal stature—folks exterior the normal West appear to count on extra room for their very own international locations to develop and thrive. For them, the multipolar world seems to be made up of many powers, huge and small, with the US and China as the 2 superpowers—however with others freer to maneuver between poles as they need.
In consequence, in lots of international locations which may till not too long ago have tied themselves in knots to keep away from selecting between the US and China, residents now really feel they will comfortably preserve good relationships with each powers. Majorities in Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Russia agree that is “realistically potential” for his or her international locations; such a view prevails in South Korea and India too. This sense was already current two years in the past. However it has solely strengthened in some locations since then, notably in Brazil and Russia.
This new order might enable political leaders to fret much less about being torn between China and America. When requested which of the 2 international locations folks would select if compelled to, many would go for China. Round half of South Africans and Russians choose China over America, however so too do a couple of third of Turks and Brazilians.
Most Indians and Brazilians nonetheless place themselves within the US camp, even following a yr through which Trump imposed steep tariffs on their international locations. However the story in South Africa is dramatically completely different. In September 2023, a majority of South Africans mentioned they’d select the US over China—however by the tip of 2025 that they had upped sticks to hitch the China camp. Trump’s refusal to ask South Africa to G20 conferences in 2026 won’t have handed unnoticed.
By way of how folks really feel in regards to the future, optimism is robust in India and China, the place folks might really feel constructive about an more and more multipolar world and their international locations’ place inside it. (Optimism can be expressed by 58% of Ukrainians and 48% of Russians, however, given these are international locations at battle, such information may very well be pushed by hopes for victory.)
In the meantime, we discover what is likely to be referred to as an “axis of pessimists”, centred round a declining America and its jilted allies—chief amongst them Europeans and South Koreans.
Altering perceptions of Europe in Russia, Ukraine and China
As energy shifts on the earth, folks’s perceptions of Europe are altering too—and in typically dramatic methods. As Trump reconfigures America’s geopolitical orientation, others are starting to treat Europeans not merely as an adjunct to American coverage, however as impartial gamers in their very own proper.
Essentially the most dramatic change has taken place amongst Russians, who see Europe as an adversary they’re in battle with. Because the Trump administration has bent over backwards to revive good relations with Vladimir Putin, Russians have change into much less hostile to Washington and more and more blame Europe. Fewer folks in Russia now contemplate the US an adversary; simply 37%, down from 48% final yr, and 64% two years in the past. Importantly, it’s value underlining that Russians’ rising sympathy in direction of the US is just not reciprocated within the American public. The prevailing view in America—and amongst Kamala Harris and Donald Trump voters alike—is that Russia stays an adversary.
The corollary to that is that Ukrainians, who as soon as noticed the US as their best ally, now look to Europe for cover.In Ukraine, almost two-thirds of individuals count on their nation’s relations with the EU to get stronger; solely a 3rd say the identical about America. Two-thirds of Ukrainians additionally see US and EU insurance policies on their nation as completely different.
This can be a notably European second for Ukrainians. Thirty-nine per cent of individuals in Ukraine contemplate the EU an ally. Strikingly, solely 18% now assume the identical of the US. The notion of the US as an ally has eroded over the past yr, falling from 27%, whereas that of the EU as an ally has consolidated, remaining comparatively secure (35% final yr).
The modifications in Russian opinion clearly parallel a change within the technique of the Putin regime. One Russian strategist not too long ago defined to one of many authors that Putin’s technique is threefold. Paraphrasing Lord Ismay’s well-known quip about NATO (that its unique objective was “to maintain the Russians out, the People in and the Germans down”), he mentioned that Putin’s technique is to maintain the Europeans out, the People in and the Ukrainians down. They now see Europeans as their most implacable foes and wish to flip coping with European resistance into an American downside.[1]
Chinese language perceptions of Europe are additionally altering. When requested whether or not the EU’s insurance policies vis-à-vis their nation are related or completely different from these of the US, most individuals in China assume they’re completely different. Up to now, most Chinese language held them to be related. What’s extra, whereas the notion of the EU’s distinctiveness has additionally elevated in another locations—together with India, Turkey and South Africa—nowhere has it risen as a lot as in China. This makes it one in every of solely two international locations, together with Brazil, the place most individuals agree the EU’s strategy to their nation is completely different from that of America.
Altogether, it is a exceptional change from our first international ballot, carried out in late 2022 with the affect of the battle in Ukraine nonetheless contemporary and Biden within the White Home. That ballot discovered a largely united transatlantic West.
In step with this, whereas 61% of individuals in China see the US as a menace, solely 19% assume the identical of the EU. This doesn’t seem like as a result of Chinese language residents don’t take the EU severely: China is likely one of the few locations the place folks regard the EU as an excellent energy. This will likely due to this fact be as a result of they view the bloc as a companion—as one other pole in a multipolar world now not dominated by America. Whereas folks in China contemplate the US mainly a rival (45%), they contemplate the EU largely a companion (46%).
In distinction, People haven’t altered their views of the EU. And, no matter Trump would possibly declare, his insurance policies in direction of Europe and Russia don’t signify a brand new American home consensus. The prevailing view within the US (40%) is to think about the EU an ally. Half of People (49%) subscribe to the view that “European safety can be American safety”; solely 29% don’t. And greater than half (54%) of People contemplate Russia’s battle in Ukraine a menace to American safety.
Much more importantly, Republican and Democratic voters don’t line up neatly behind positions in opposition to or in favour of the EU. If something, Trump’s personal voters is internally divided over questions round Europe and Russia. However the transatlantic divide is even larger, with solely 25% of Britons and 16% of EU residents now agreeing that the US is their ally.
How Europe sees itself in a post-Western world
What about Europeans themselves? Are they prepared for a post-Western order with a “regular” America, superpower China and lots of international locations embracing multipolarity? The findings recommend folks in some components of the world see nice potential in Europe. However a lot stays for Europeans to embrace their very own energy, and they’re ranging from a dismal place.
Many European residents are acutely aware they’re now residing in a post-Western world, and see it as a danger slightly than a chance. The info affirm that Europeans are among the many chief pessimists on the earth at the moment. Most Europeans doubt the longer term will deliver any good for his or her international locations, the world or themselves individually. (The survey didn’t discover folks’s optimism in regards to the EU’s future, which—based on September 2025 Eurobarometer data—appears to be doing higher, with 52% throughout EU27 feeling optimistic and 43% pessimistic.)
Most Europeans don’t imagine the EU is an influence capable of deal on equal phrases with the US or China—and these doubts have grown over the previous 12 months. As information offered earlier confirmed, Europeans are among the many least assured within the EU’s power. In distinction, most individuals in South Africa, Brazil, China and Ukraine say the EU is a power to be reckoned with. Trump’s and Putin’s aggressive and dismissive views of Europe is likely to be among the many chief elements shaping perceptions in Europe—particularly since these views are echoed and magnified by an array of antiliberal, nationalist populist events throughout the continent.
Europeans’ pessimism might also be a response to the combined messages their leaders have been sending. European leaders are privately conscious that the transatlantic relationship because it as soon as existed is over. Nonetheless, they’ve spent many of the final yr endeavor transatlantic injury management by flattering Trump and making an attempt to faux that is the alliance it was earlier than.
On the floor, Europeans might already be making the psychological shift to a post-Western world through which Europe more and more finds itself alone. They harbour no illusions in regards to the US below Trump. They help ramping up defence spending and realise they’re residing in a harmful world.
Extra particularly, European opinion of the US and Trump has worsened. As famous above, fewer Europeans than a yr in the past imagine Trump is nice even for Americans. Fewer Europeans additionally now assume the US is an ally or companion.
Many Europeans really feel they’re residing via a deadly second. They categorical excessive ranges of fear about Russian aggression in opposition to one other European nation, the probability of a serious European battle and using nuclear weapons.
By the identical token, help is robust throughout Europe for enhancing defence spending, reintroducing necessary conscription and even growing a European nuclear deterrent.
Support Greater and Subscribe to view content
This is premium stuff. Subscribe to read the entire article.
