What Yoweri Museveni’s election victory over Bobi Wine means for Uganda

[ad_1] Sammy Awami BBC Africa, Kampala

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/c7b2/live/271a2e30-f3b6-11f0-a42e-950e67f27517.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/c7b2/live/271a2e30-f3b6-11f0-a42e-950e67f27517.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c7b2/live/271a2e30-f3b6-11f0-a42e-950e67f27517.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/c7b2/live/271a2e30-f3b6-11f0-a42e-950e67f27517.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/c7b2/live/271a2e30-f3b6-11f0-a42e-950e67f27517.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/c7b2/live/271a2e30-f3b6-11f0-a42e-950e67f27517.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/c7b2/live/271a2e30-f3b6-11f0-a42e-950e67f27517.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c7b2/live/271a2e30-f3b6-11f0-a42e-950e67f27517.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Bloomberg via Getty Images Supporters of Yoweri Museveni, Uganda's president, dance during a campaign rally ahead of presidential elections in Kampala, Uganda, on Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Bloomberg by way of Getty Photos For supporters of Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, his resounding victory within the just-concluded election is a vindication of his 40-year-long rule.

He gained with 72% of the vote, near his highest-ever tally of 74% in Uganda's first direct presidential election in 1996.

It reinforces the 81-year-old's declare that he nonetheless instructions the assist of the overwhelming majority of Ugandans, after seizing energy as a insurgent commander in 1986 ending the rule of the Milton Obote regime.

However Museveni's fundamental election rival - the charismatic former pop star Bobi Wine - dismissed the consequence as "pretend" and mentioned he had gone into hiding following a raid on his residence by the safety forces.

Museveni campaigned largely on his track-record, arguing that he has delivered political and financial stability in an period of world uncertainty.

He pledged to steer Uganda in direction of reaching the standing of a middle-income nation by 2030, a milestone his supporters have framed as a becoming legacy for a person who will end his seventh - and presumably remaining - time period the next 12 months.

Museveni sees Uganda's nascent oil trade as a central pillar in direction of reaching that purpose.

On the marketing campaign path, he repeatedly informed voters that when exports begin, the financial system would develop at double-digit charges.

Museveni has set October because the goal date for the primary crude oil exports, by way of a 1,443 km pipeline to the Indian Ocean port of Tanga in Tanzania.

Regardless of his age, the president has sought to challenge vitality and management. At one in every of his remaining marketing campaign rallies, he informed supporters that he had visited all of Uganda's greater than 140 electoral constituencies.

But in early October, his staff abruptly cancelled a number of marketing campaign occasions, citing unspecified "state duties" - a proof many discovered unconvincing, fuelling hypothesis in regards to the octogenarian's well being.

Subsequent pauses in his schedule solely deepened hypothesis about fatigue and declining well being.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/6689/live/13a26ac0-f3ca-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/6689/live/13a26ac0-f3ca-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6689/live/13a26ac0-f3ca-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/6689/live/13a26ac0-f3ca-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/6689/live/13a26ac0-f3ca-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/6689/live/13a26ac0-f3ca-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/6689/live/13a26ac0-f3ca-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6689/live/13a26ac0-f3ca-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, of the National Unity Platform (NUP) party, stands with his wife Barbara Kyagulanyi, as he addresses a press conference as they prepare to leave their Magere home to vote in the general election, in Kasangati town near Kampala, Uganda January 15, 2026" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Reuters Bobi Wine has now twice didn't dislodge President Museveni from energy

For Wine, the consequence was an enormous blow. His share of the vote slumped from 35% in 2021 to 25% this time spherical, regardless of Uganda's overwhelmingly younger inhabitants - a demographic lengthy considered because the 43-year-old's pure base.

From Wine's perspective, the election was neither credible nor official.

He maintains that the marketing campaign was removed from free and truthful, pointing to repeated disruptions of his rallies by safety forces, together with using tear gasoline and stay ammunition to intimidate supporters, a few of whom had been killed.

He additionally alleged poll stuffing however has not offered any proof to again his claims. The authorities haven't commented on the claims.

After two unsuccessful presidential bids, questions now hold over his political future.

There's a rising danger that he might observe the trail of many opposition figures throughout Africa - politicians whose well-liked enchantment was steadily eroded by sustained repression, leaving them completely excluded from energy.

In the course of the marketing campaign, Wine embodied the power and impatience of Uganda's youth, whereas Museveni solid himself because the seasoned patriarch, the guarantor of stability.

In the end, based on the disputed official outcomes, voters opted for the latter.

These searching for to grasp Uganda's subsequent chapter have largely targeted on the query of presidential succession - when and the way Museveni will ultimately exit the stage.

Ugandan journalist and political analyst Allan Kasujja - a former BBC Newsday radio and podcast presenter - cautions towards being fixated with the difficulty.

"Change in Uganda, particularly political change, doesn't, and virtually actually won't, occur out of the blue," Kasujja says.

"It occurs regularly, and that course of has been beneath manner for a while."

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/5f0e/live/bb1d21b0-f3c9-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/5f0e/live/bb1d21b0-f3c9-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5f0e/live/bb1d21b0-f3c9-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/5f0e/live/bb1d21b0-f3c9-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/5f0e/live/bb1d21b0-f3c9-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/5f0e/live/bb1d21b0-f3c9-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/5f0e/live/bb1d21b0-f3c9-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/5f0e/live/bb1d21b0-f3c9-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="EPA / Shutterstock A member of Uganda security forces operates during the opening of ballot boxes during the presidential elections in Kampala, Uganda, 15 January 2026. Eight presidential candidates, including incumbent Yoweri Museveni and NUP candidate Bobi Wine, are vying for the presidency. Uganda holds presidential elections, Kampala - 15 Jan 2026" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> EPA / Shutterstock Uganda's safety forces have been accused of brutally cracking down on the opposition

Seen via that lens, the election seems much less a second of transformation than a ritual of the political calendar, one which legitimises deeper, slower shifts going down inside the ruling get together, the Nationwide Resistance Motion (NRM), and the state equipment that it controls.

These shifts had been first seen throughout a cupboard reshuffle by Museveni in March 2023, and have become unmistakable within the August 2025 elections for the NRM's prime decision-making physique, the Central Govt Committee.

Removed from being a routine inside contest, the method become a high-stakes wrestle over positioning in a post-Museveni order.

Marked by factional bargaining and allegations of widespread bribery, the elections revealed a regime more and more pushed by succession politics fairly than competitors with an opposition that had both been handled by the safety forces or co-opted.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/0905/live/35092a80-f3c7-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0905/live/35092a80-f3c7-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0905/live/35092a80-f3c7-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/0905/live/35092a80-f3c7-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/0905/live/35092a80-f3c7-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/0905/live/35092a80-f3c7-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/0905/live/35092a80-f3c7-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0905/live/35092a80-f3c7-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters A woman sells bananas near campaign posters of Uganda's President and the leader of ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party, Yoweri Museveni, following the general elections in Kampala, Uganda January 17, 2026" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Reuters The opposition says the election was marred by rigging and intimidation

It offered the clearest indication but of the rising affect inside the ruling get together of military chief Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba - the son of the president and his potential successor.

Veteran figures from the get together's previous guard had been pushed apart, changed by newer faces, many with out the credentials of getting fought within the battle that introduced Museveni to energy 40 years in the past, however extensively seen as loyal to his son.

Based on sources near the presidency, authority at State Home has grow to be more and more decentralised, with choices as soon as taken immediately by Museveni now channelled via a good internal family and long-time associates.

Museveni's day-to-day schedule is claimed to be overseen by his eldest daughter, Natasha Karugire.

Relations with overseas dignitaries and senior army figures are largely managed by his half-brother, Salim Saleh, whereas commerce and financial coverage are formed by his son-in-law, Odrek Rwabwogo, married to Museveni's second daughter, Persistence.

And for the primary time within the nation's trendy historical past, all safety issues - each inside and exterior - are overseen by the chief of defence forces, the 51-year-old Gen Kainerugaba.

Given the dominant position that the army has lengthy performed in Ugandan politics and the truth that Museveni himself got here to energy via armed wrestle, this focus of authority in his palms has profound political implications.

It means that Uganda's future is being formed - and more and more managed - by Museveni's son, even when he doesn't maintain the title of head of state, but.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/912d/live/d97628c0-f2b4-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/912d/live/d97628c0-f2b4-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/912d/live/d97628c0-f2b4-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/912d/live/d97628c0-f2b4-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/912d/live/d97628c0-f2b4-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/912d/live/d97628c0-f2b4-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/912d/live/d97628c0-f2b4-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/912d/live/d97628c0-f2b4-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.png.webp" loading="lazy" alt="BBC election graphics" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> <img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/0a19/live/7c722dc0-089d-11ef-b9d8-4f52aebe147d.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0a19/live/7c722dc0-089d-11ef-b9d8-4f52aebe147d.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0a19/live/7c722dc0-089d-11ef-b9d8-4f52aebe147d.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/0a19/live/7c722dc0-089d-11ef-b9d8-4f52aebe147d.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/0a19/live/7c722dc0-089d-11ef-b9d8-4f52aebe147d.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/0a19/live/7c722dc0-089d-11ef-b9d8-4f52aebe147d.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/0a19/live/7c722dc0-089d-11ef-b9d8-4f52aebe147d.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0a19/live/7c722dc0-089d-11ef-b9d8-4f52aebe147d.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images/BBC A woman looking at her mobile phone and the graphic BBC News Africa" class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Getty Photos/BBC [ad_2] Source link