Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, February 1, 2026

Toplines

Russian drones struck a maternity hospital and a bus carrying miners on February 1, inflicting vital civilian casualties. Ukrainian officers reported that Russian forces struck a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia Metropolis with unspecified drones in the course of the day on February 1, beginning a fireplace within the gynecological division’s reception space and injuring at the very least six individuals.[1] Ukrainian officers reported that Russian forces additionally struck mines belonging to Ukraine’s largest personal vitality firm, DTEK, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on February 1.[2] Ukrainian officers reported that 4 Shahed drones struck a DTEK bus carrying miners close to Ternivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing at the very least 12 individuals and injuring at the very least 16.[3] ISW continues to evaluate that Russia is prioritizing strikes towards civilians to proceed its long-standing marketing campaign to demoralize the Ukrainian populace.[4]

The Kremlin continues to make use of points unrelated to its warfare in Ukraine to push the Trump administration to present in to Russia’s calls for relating to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations would maintain the following spherical of trilateral conferences in Abu Dhabi on February 4 and 5, not on February 1 as initially deliberate.[5] Russian International Minister Sergei Lavrov used an interview with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin on February 1 to attempt to curry favor with the Trump administration forward of the upcoming conferences and to persuade the US to solely interact in negotiations with Russia, not Ukraine and Europe.[6] Lavrov in contrast Russia to the US as a fellow nice energy and claimed that the 2 international locations must implement bilateral financial and commerce tasks whereas being positive to not permit any variations to result in a confrontation, particularly a “heated one.” Lavrov additional claimed that Europe is making an attempt to “drive wedges” between Russia and the US. The Kremlin has been utilizing a negotiation tactic that tries to border Russia as a worldwide energy akin to the US and as an inheritor to the Soviet Union’s “superpower standing” since US President Donald Trump assumed workplace in early 2025.[7] Lavrov’s February 1 statements goal to make use of the prospects of financial offers or strategic arms talks to entice Trump into conceding to Russia’s calls for about Ukraine, together with the Kremlin’s calls for that the US not interact Europe within the peace course of.

Insider experiences proceed to exhibit that Russia is making an attempt to painting itself to exterior audiences as a keen negotiator in an effort to acquire management over all of Donetsk Oblast via diplomatic means. Bloomberg reported on January 31, citing unspecified educated sources, that Russia sees little probability of a breakthrough throughout ongoing peace talks.[8] The sources famous that Russian and Ukrainian army delegations have been discussing the technical particulars of a attainable ceasefire implementation settlement, however assessed {that a} decision to territorial points would require leadership-level choices. The sources said that Russian President Vladimir Putin considers Ukraine’s cession of all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Russia and the freezing of the present frontline in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts to be a “concession,” since Russia illegally annexed the whole lot of the 4 oblasts in 2022, despite the fact that Russian forces have nonetheless not seized the territory of all 4 areas. Russian officers have made frequent statements demonstrating the Kremlin’s maximalist demand that Ukraine cede the whole lot of all 4 oblasts throughout negotiations.[9] The preliminary US-proposed 28-point peace plan referred to as for Ukraine’s cessation of all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the freezing of the frontline in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, and subsequent US-Ukrainian proposals have referred to as for the creation of a demilitarized zone or “free financial zone” in Donetsk Oblast.[10] The Kremlin explicitly rejected in December 2025 the Ukrainian proposal to determine a demilitarized zone in Donestk Oblast, and the Kremlin could also be making an attempt to current Russia as amenable to the so-called “concession” of freezing the road in southern Ukraine in an effort to stop additional US-Ukrainian discussions a few demilitarized or financial zone in unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast.[11] Russian officers will doubtless proceed efforts to current the demand that Ukraine quit all of Donetsk Oblast as a reasonable place and a significant “concession” in an effort to extract concessions that might in the end be strategically dangerous to Ukraine. ISW continues to evaluate that ceding the remainder of Donetsk Oblast to Russia could be a strategic mistake, as Russia is unlikely to grab this territory rapidly or simply however would then be in a extra advantageous place to resume assaults towards Ukraine sooner or later.[12]

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk restricted Starlink satellite tv for pc terminals working in Ukraine in an effort to counter Russia’s use of Starlink on drones. Musk said on X (previously Twitter) on February 1 that SpaceX, at Ukraine’s request, has taken “efficient” steps to cease Russian forces’ use of Starlink and referred to as on Ukrainian authorities to tell SpaceX about any mandatory additional measures.[13] Ukrainian Protection Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in response to Musk that SpaceX’s first steps have achieved ”actual outcomes” and that Ukraine and SpaceX are engaged on subsequent steps.[14] Musk’s and Fedorov’s statements come after latest experiences that Russian forces, together with parts of the Rubikon Heart for Superior Unmanned Applied sciences, are utilizing Starlink terminals to increase the vary of BM-35 strike drones and low-cost Molniya-2 fixed-wing first-person view (FPV) drones to conduct mid-range drone strikes towards the Ukrainian rear beginning in late December 2025.[15] ISW continues to evaluate that these Russian strikes are an try to duplicate prior Russian battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaigns towards Ukrainian floor traces of communication (GLOCs) that enabled latest Russian advances within the Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole instructions.[16] Russian milbloggers claimed on February 1 that Russian drone operators began to expertise Starlink sign blocking when flying drones at speeds of over 75 to 90 kilometers per hour.[17] The milbloggers famous that the restrictions have impacted Shahed-type, Molniya, and BM-35 strike drones and brought about vital disruptions to Russian Starlink-enabled drones.[18] Ukrainian Ministry of Protection (MoD) advisor on protection know-how and drone and digital warfare (EW) professional Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported on January 31 that the Ukrainian MoD will proceed to work with SpaceX and can gather data on Ukrainian army Starlink customers in an effort to stop the restrictions from affecting Ukrainian forces.[19]

Russia is increase army infrastructure close to the Finnish border, doubtless as a part of wider army growth efforts that search to arrange the Russian pressure for a possible future battle with NATO. Finnish nationwide broadcaster Yle revealed satellite tv for pc pictures between June 2024 and October 2025 exhibiting Russian building on the Rybka army base in Petrozavodsk, Republic of Karelia (roughly 175 kilometers from the Finnish border).[20] Yle reported that the Soviet-era garrison space has been largely deserted for the reason that early 2000s however that the forty fourth Military Corps (AC, Leningrad Army District [LMD]) will use the bottom. Yle reported that the Rybka army base already accommodates a big air base and tools depot. Yle reported that satellite tv for pc imagery from Might and August 2025 reveals that Russia can be constructing a brand new army city in Kandalaksha, Murmansk Oblast (roughly 115 kilometers from the Finnish border) for the Luptsche-Savino garrison, which Russia began to construct in Winter 2024-2025 for a brand new artillery brigade and an engineering brigade. ISW has beforehand reported on the growth of different Russian army infrastructure alongside the border with Finland.[21] Russia restructured the Western Army District (WMD) into the LMD and Moscow Army District (MMD) in 2024, doubtless in an effort to enhance Russia’s strategic command alongside its northern border and to posture towards NATO alongside the Finnish border.[22] The Russian army command additionally fashioned the forty fourth AC within the LMD in 2024 as a part of these efforts.[23] Russian officers, together with Russian President Vladimir Putin, have beforehand immediately threatened Finland, together with by making use of language that Russia has used falsely justify its invasions of Ukraine to Finland.[24]

Belarus seems to be growing the amount and frequency of Belarusian balloon incursions into Polish and Lithuanian airspace. The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command reported that Belarus launched “balloon-like” objects into Polish airspace on the evening of January 31 to February 1 and famous that the balloons aimed to reconnoiter and check Polish air protection reactions.[25] Belarus has launched balloon-like objects into Polish airspace 3 times within the final 4 days (since January 7), and Lithuania reported a report excessive of 42 Belarusian balloons in its airspace on the evening of January 27 to twenty-eight.[26] ISW continues to evaluate that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus, and Russia is probably going utilizing Russia is utilizing airspace incursions of Poland and Lithuania from Belarus as a part of its “Section Zero” effort — the informational and psychological condition-setting section — to arrange for a attainable NATO-Russia warfare sooner or later.[27]

A number of unidentified drones flew over German army infrastructure on February 1. German outlet Bild reported on February 1 that roughly 23 drones flew above the Immelmann army airfield in Decrease Saxony, Germany on February 1.[28] German authorities haven’t recognized the actor liable for the drone overflights as of this writing. German authorities beforehand recognized Russia as a attainable actor liable for drone flights over Germany in 2025, nevertheless.[29]

Key Takeaways

Russian drones struck a maternity hospital and a bus carrying miners on February 1, inflicting vital civilian casualties.
The Kremlin continues to make use of points unrelated to its warfare in Ukraine to push the Trump administration to present in to Russia’s calls for relating to Ukraine.
Insider experiences proceed to exhibit that Russia is making an attempt to painting itself to exterior audiences as a keen negotiator in an effort to acquire management over all of Donetsk Oblast via diplomatic means.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk restricted Starlink satellite tv for pc terminals working in Ukraine in an effort to counter Russia’s use of Starlink on drones.
Russia is increase army infrastructure close to the Finnish border, doubtless as a part of wider army growth efforts that search to arrange the Russian pressure for a possible future battle with NATO.
Belarus seems to be growing the amount and frequency of Belarusian balloon incursions into Polish and Lithuanian airspace.
A number of unidentified drones flew over German army infrastructure on February 1.
Ukrainian forces lately superior close to Slovyansk.

We don’t report intimately on Russian warfare crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t immediately have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to judge and report on the results of those legal actions on the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle and the Geneva Conventions and crimes towards humanity despite the fact that we don’t describe them in these experiences.

Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation

Nothing Important To Report.

Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis

Russian goal: Create defensible buffer zones in Sumy Oblast alongside the worldwide border

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on February 1 however didn’t make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces superior east of Bila Bereza and southwest of Komarivka (each northwest of Sumy Metropolis).[30]

Russian forces attacked in Kursk and Sumy oblasts, together with northwest of Sumy Metropolis close to Bila Bereza, north of Sumy Metropolis towards Nova Sich, and northeast of Sumy Metropolis close to Yablunivka, on January 31 and February 1.[31] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Varachyne (north of Sumy Metropolis) and south of Yunakivka (northeast of Sumy Metropolis).[32]

The Ukrainian Common Employees reported on February 1 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian drone management level close to Nekislitsa and a troop focus close to Troyebortnoye (each in Bryansk Oblast close to the worldwide border northwest of Sumy Metropolis) in a single day on January 31 to February 1.[33]

Order of Battle: Drone operators and different parts of the Russian Chechen 1434th Akhmat-Chechnya Regiment (forty second Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Mixed Arms Military [CAA], Southern Army District [SMD]) reportedly proceed to function in Sumy Oblast.[34]

Russian Important Effort: Jap Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Important Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast

Russian goal: Push Ukrainian forces again from the worldwide border to create a defensible buffer zone with Belgorod Oblast and strategy to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Metropolis

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on February 1 however didn’t make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) and different Russian sources claimed on February 1 that Russian forces seized Zelene (northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis).[35] The Russian Northern Grouping of Forces credited parts of the Russian ninth Motorized Rifle Regiment (18th Motorized Rifle Division, eleventh Military Corps [AC], Leningrad Army District [LMD]) with the claimed seizure of Zelene.[36] A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that two Russian servicemembers have infiltrated into Zelene however that Russian forces haven’t seized the settlement, opposite to the Russian MoD’s declare.[37] Russian milbloggers first claimed the seizure of Zelene on Might 10, 2024, and Ukrainian army observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Ukrainian forces liberated Zelene as of Might 15, 2024.[38]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis close to Vovchansk, Starytsya, Prylipka, Hrafske, Vilcha, Vovchanski Khutory, and Symynivka on January 31 and February 1.[39]

The Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that parts of the Russian ninth Motorized Rifle Regiment have suffered heavy casualties whereas attacking throughout open fields between Zelene and Sereda (simply northeast of Zelene in Belgorod Oblast).[40] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces are unable to conduct casualty evacuations within the space and that prime casualties are inflicting servicemembers to refuse to combat. The milblogger claimed that the regimental command is committing specialist technical and anti-aircraft personnel, drivers, and cooks to infantry assaults.[41] The milblogger additional claimed that the Russian army command is withdrawing parts of the Russian forty first Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, forty fourth AC, LMD) from positions close to Starytsya as a consequence of heavy casualties.[42]

Ukrainian Joint Forces Activity Power Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on January 31 that opposed climate situations are hindering each Russian and Ukrainian drone operations and actions within the Vovchansk path as Russian forces proceed fireteam infiltration makes an attempt close to Lyman.[43]

Russian forces attacked east of Velykyi Burluk close to Khatnie and southeast of Velykyi Burluk close to Dvorichanske and towards Kolodyazne on January 31 and February 1, however didn’t advance.[44]

Russian Subordinate Important Effort #2 – Oskil River

Russian goal: Cross the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Kupyansk path on February 1 however didn’t advance.

Russian forces attacked close to Kupyansk itself; north of Kupyansk close to Kutkivka; northeast of Kupyansk close to Fyholivka; east of Kupyansk close to Petropavlivka; and southeast of Kupyansk close to Pishchane and Hlushkivka and towards Kurylivka and Novoosynove on January 31 and February 1.[45]

A Ukrainian brigade working within the Kupyansk path reported on January 31 that Ukrainian forces lately eradicated a sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Russian 153rd Tank Regiment (forty seventh Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Military [GTA], Moscow Army District [MMD]) making an attempt to infiltrate into Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (south of Kupyansk) to conduct a flag elevating mission to generate informational results.[46]

Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Borova path on February 1 however didn’t advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Borova close to Novoplatonivka; northeast of Borova close to Bohuslavka; southeast of Borova close to Novoserhiivka and Shyikivka, and towards Stepove; and south of Borova close to Oleksandrivka on January 31 and February 1.[47]

A Russian supply revealed footage on January 31 purportedly exhibiting parts of the Russian 1st GTA elevating a flag in Novoplatonivka.[48] A geolocator on X (previously Twitter) geolocated the footage to occupied Kolomyichykha (northeast of Borova), situated roughly eight kilometers behind the frontline.[49] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) has beforehand revealed deceptive footage to help exaggerated claims of Russian advances within the neighboring Kupyansk path.[50]

Russian Subordinate Important Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast

Russian goal: Seize the whole lot of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

Ukrainian forces lately superior within the Slovyansk path.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on January 31 signifies that Ukrainian forces lately superior in japanese Riznykivka (east of Slovyansk).[51]

Russian forces attacked northwest of Lyman close to Svyatohirsk and Novoselivka; north of Lyman close to Drobysheve; northeast of Lyman close to Zarichne and Stavky; southeast of Lyman close to Yampil; northeast of Slovyansk close to Zakitne and Dronivka; east of Slovyansk close to Siversk, Platonivka, and Riznykivka; and southeast of Slovyansk close to Bondarne and Dibrova and towards Rai-Oleksandrivka and Nykyforivka on January 31 and February 1.[52] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Riznykivka, Drobysheve, and Yarova (northwest of Lyman).[53]

Order of Battle: Drone and artillery parts of the Russian 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (third Mixed Arms Military [CAA], previously 2nd Luhansk Folks’s Republic Military Corps [LNR AC], Southern Army District [SMD]) are hanging Ukrainian forces in japanese Riznykivka.[54] Drone operators and different parts of the seventh Motorized Rifle Brigade (third CAA) are hanging Ukrainian forces south of Zakitne and reportedly proceed to function close to Siversk.[55] First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the third Motorized Rifle Division (twentieth CAA, Moscow Army District [MMD]) are reportedly working within the Lyman path.[56]

Russian forces lately performed infiltration missions within the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical space.

Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage revealed on January 31 reveals Ukrainian forces hanging a home in japanese Minkivka (northeast of Kostyantynivka) that Russian forces occupied after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission that didn’t change the management of terrain or the ahead fringe of battle space (FEBA).[57]

Russian forces attacked inside and close to Kostyantynivka itself; northeast of Kostyantynivka close to Pryvillya, Holubivka, Minkivka, Markove, Novomarkove, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhovo-Vasylivka; south of Kostyantynivka close to Berestok, Pleshchiivka, Shcherbynivka, Kleban-Byk, and Ivanopillya; southwest of Kostyantynivka towards Illinivka and Stepanivka; west of Kostyantynivka towards Mykolaipillya; south of Druzhkivka close to Rusyn Yar; and southwest of Druzhkivka close to Novopavlivka and Sofiivka and towards Raiske on January 31 and February 1.[58] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Pavlivka (southwest of Druzhkivka), Pryvillya, Maiske, and Virolyubivka (each north of Kostyantynivka).[59]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade working within the Kostyantynivka path refuted Russian claims of the seizure of Kostyantynivka and reported that Ukrainian forces are eliminating particular person Russian infiltration teams that entered Kostyantynivka.[60]

Order of Battle: FPV drone operators of the Russian Chechen 78th Sever-Akhmat Motorized Rifle Regiment (forty second Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, SMD) are hanging Ukrainian positions west of Ivanopillya.[61] Artillery parts of the 238th Artillery Brigade (eighth CAA, SMD) are hanging Ukrainian forces in northern Illinivka.[62] FPV drone operators of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the twentieth Motorized Rifle Division (eighth CAA) are reportedly hanging Ukrainian forces and autos close to Torske (southwest of Druzhkivka) and Varvarivka (west of Druzhkivka).[63]

Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Dobropillya tactical space on February 1 however didn’t advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Dobropillya towards Kucheriv Yar; east of Dobropillya close to Toretske and Vilne; and southeast of Dobropillya close to Ivanivka and Zapovidne on January 31 and February 1.[64] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Novyi Donbas (east of Dobropillya).[65]

Order of Battle: FPV drone operators of the Russian eightieth Sparta Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (51st CAA, previously 1st Donetsk Folks’s Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) are reportedly hanging Ukrainian positions in Novohryshyne (southwest of Dobropillya).[66] FPV drone operators of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the twentieth Motorized Rifle Division are reportedly hanging Ukrainian unmanned floor autos (UGVs) close to Vesele (northeast of Dobropillya).[67] Drone operators of the thirty third Motorized Rifle Regiment (twentieth Motorized Rifle Division) and of the a hundred and fiftieth Motorized Rifle Division (eighth CAA) reportedly proceed to function within the Dobropillya path.[68]

Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Pokrovsk path on February 1 however didn’t make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: The Russian MoD claimed on February 1 that Russian forces seized Sukhetske (northeast of Pokrovsk).[69]

Russian forces attacked close to and inside Pokrovsk itself; northwest of Pokrovsk close to Hryshyne and towards Shevchenko; north of Pokrovsk close to Rodynske and Bilytske; northeast of Pokrovsk close to Sukhetske; east of Pokrovsk close to Myrnohrad; southwest of Pokrovsk close to Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, and Novopidhorodne; and west of Pokrovsk towards Serhiivka on January 31 and February 1.[70] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Rodynske and Hryshyne.[71]

A non-commissioned officer of a Ukrainian drone battalion working within the Pokrovsk path reported on February 1 that Russian forces primarily conduct motorized assaults within the battalion’s space of duty (AoR), however Russian forces did conduct mechanized assaults within the neighboring brigade’s AoR.[72] The commander of a Ukrainian mortar battery working within the Pokrovsk path reported on February 1 that Ukrainian and Russian positions are interspersed on the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk.[73] The commander added that dense fog and restricted visibility are hindering each Russian and Ukrainian drone operations, which concurrently permits Russian forces to extend infiltration makes an attempt whereas enabling Ukrainian resupply, evacuation, and rotation missions.[74] The commander reported that Russian forces are infiltrating Ukrainian positions in fireteams of 1 to 3 servicemembers and infrequently use all-terrain autos (ATVs) to move infantry nearer to the entrance. The commander famous that Russian forces haven’t used massive quantities of mechanized tools since a mid-December mechanized assault towards Hryshyne (doubtless referring to a December 10 company-sized mechanized assault).[75]

The Ukrainian Common Employees reported on February 1 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian drone management level, an organization command and statement level, and a manpower focus close to Myrnohrad.[76]

Order of Battle: FPV drone operators of the Russian eightieth Sparta Separate Reconnaissance Battalion are reportedly hanging Ukrainian positions in Shevchenko and close to Rodynske.[77]

Russian forces attacked close to Novopavlivka itself; northeast of Novopavlivka close to Muravka; and south of Novopavlivka close to Filiya on January 31 and February 1, however didn’t advance.[78]

Russian forces attacked towards Oleksandrivka itself and southeast of Oleksandrivka close to Verbove and Vyshneve on January 31 and February 1, however didn’t advance.[79]