Key Takeaways:
Coinbase formally launched the managed prediction markets for U.S. customers through Coinbase Monetary Markets.Merchants should buy “Sure” or “No” contracts in numerous fields equivalent to sports activities, crypto, politics, economics and leisure.Every contract pays $1 with the appropriate prediction – the value displays real-time market chance.
Coinbase is increasing past spot crypto buying and selling with the launch of its prediction markets product in the US. The characteristic permits customers to commerce outcomes on real-world occasions, bringing a well-known market-based construction to forecasts as soon as restricted to polls or sportsbooks.
Prediction Markets Go Stay on Coinbase
Coinbase confirmed that its prediction markets at the moment are accessible nationwide, providing regulated “Sure/No” contracts tied to particular outcomes. These contracts are listed futures and swaps offered by Coinbase Monetary Markets (CFM), a registered NFA member.
Don’t simply watch the Huge Sport – commerce the end result. 🏈
From touchdowns to halftime songs, flip your complete broadcast into predictions.
Now accessible anyplace within the U.S. pic.twitter.com/C2NtKeWO6L
— Coinbase 🛡️ (@coinbase) February 2, 2026
A prediction market works on a easy construction. The contracts repay at $1 in case of an prevalence and $0 in case of non-occurrence. Commerce worth is solely the chance value which suggests a market. A worth of $0.65 due to this fact signifies that there’s an approximate 65% chance of the occasion occurring.
Prospects have the selection of buying both “Sure”, after they consider that the end result will happen, or “No”, when they’re betting that it’s going to not. If the place is appropriate, the contract settles at $1, and the dealer retains the distinction between the payout and the acquisition worth, minus charges.
Markets can be found throughout a variety of classes, together with sports activities, crypto costs, elections, financial indicators, expertise, science, climate, leisure, and company-related occasions. Coinbase says new markets will likely be added often.
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How Buying and selling, Settlement, and Charges Work
With the intention to entry prediction markets, you’ll require an everyday account at Coinbase and full onboarding with CFM. That’s to move identification checks and throw in some monetary fundamental info. You may fund trades instantly off of your major Coinbase stability, after you might be green-lit and both utilizing USD or USDC.
The money that you’ve got stored open is transferred right into a derivatives account. When positions are closed, unused funds switch again mechanically. Buying and selling is on the market 24/7, aside from a weekly upkeep window from Thursday 3:00–5:00 am ET.
Settlement Guidelines and Payout Construction
Every market contains detailed guidelines explaining how outcomes are determined. Settlement depends on a predefined “supply of reality,” equivalent to official authorities information, market costs, or acknowledged information retailers. The result is validated by an autonomous regulated trade.
In case of settlement, the successful contracts obtain credit score of $1 and the losers pay $0. On this case, say you buy 10 “Sure” contracts with a proposal worth of $0.40 it will then value you $4. Supplied the occasion proceeds, you earn a greenback in funds of $10 and earn a $6 revenue internet of charges.
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