Democrat wins Texas GOP seat in gorgeous upset, Trump district flips

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A surprising setback for Republicans on the poll field in a ruby pink a part of right-leaning Texas has some saying the defeat was a "wake-up name" for the GOP forward of this 12 months's midterm elections, when the social gathering is defending its slender congressional majorities.

The double-digit shellacking, in a particular state Senate election this previous weekend in a Fort Value space district that President Donald Trump gained by 17 factors in 2024, comes amid backlash over the Trump administration's unprecedented crackdown on unlawful immigration and, as the newest polling signifies, the president and his social gathering are effectively underwater.

The Democrats' victory, their newest win or over efficiency in a slew of particular elections since Trump returned to energy within the White Home a 12 months in the past, is additional energizing them as they work to win again management of the Home and probably the Senate.

"It’s clearly a wake-up name for Republicans," longtime Texas-based Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser instructed Fox Information Digital.

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Taylor Rehmet greets a supporter at his Senate District 9 runoff watch social gathering at Nickel Metropolis in Fort Value, Texas, on Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026. (Eleanor Dearman/Fort Value Star-Telegram/Tribune Information Service by way of Getty Pictures)

And he warned that the leads to Saturday's particular election to fill a vacant GOP-controlled seat in state Senate District 9 "does present that Democrats are energized and Republicans didn't end up within the numbers they need to have."

"If Democrats can win this seat, it places lots of different seats in play," Steinhauser warned.

However as of now, Republican sources concerned in midterm messaging inform Fox Information Digital that whereas they don't seem to be discounting the Democrats' victories, there isn't any discuss proper now of a wholesale revamping of the GOP's playbook.

In Texas, Machinist and Air Pressure veteran Taylor Rehmet topped Republican Leigh Wambsganss by roughly 14 factors in Saturday's runoff election, regardless of Republicans dramatically outspending Democrats within the race, together with help from prime Republicans together with Gov. Greg Abbott and a last-minute endorsement and a social media push by Trump.

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That is the primary time the seat, within the northern a part of Fort Value anchored Tarrant County, has been represented by a Democrat in 4 many years.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) referred to as it a "Shockwave Victory" and highlighted that "Democrats have now flipped 26 state legislative seats since Trump retook workplace, whereas Republicans have flipped zero."

The outcomes of particular elections are sometimes over-hyped and should not at all times one of the best indicator or barometer of issues to return. However regardless, Republicans aren't attempting to sugarcoat the outcomes.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick referred to as the defeat "a wake-up name for Republicans throughout Texas. Our voters can not take something as a right."

And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis famous on X, "Particular elections are quirky and never essentially projectable re: a common election. That mentioned, a swing of this magnitude shouldn't be one thing that may be dismissed."

"Republicans ought to be clear-eyed concerning the political setting heading into the midterms," DeSantis emphasised.

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Thanks partly to their laser deal with the difficulty of affordability amid persistent inflation, Democrats scored decisive victories within the 2025 elections, and have overperformed on the poll field in different off-year and particular elections because the begin of Trump's second administration. However a few of these victories and overperformances got here in contests in small state legislative districts, the place massive swings can happen amid low voter turnout.

That wasn't the case in Texas, the place the ninth state Senate district is house to roughly a million folks, extra populous than the 800,000 folks in a typical congressional district.

Republicans, because the social gathering in energy within the nation's capital, are going through conventional political headwinds within the midterms and a tough local weather.

Greater than half (54%) surveyed within the newest Fox Information nationwide ballot mentioned the nation was worse off than it was a 12 months in the past, when Trump took workplace, with solely 31% saying the U.S. was in a greater place.

Solely 30% mentioned the financial system was in glorious or fine condition, and Trump's general approval rankings stay in damaging territory (44%-56%), in keeping with the ballot.

The survey was the newest nationwide ballot to spell bother for the GOP.

Trump's emphasis on inflation was a key consider Republicans successful again the White Home and Senate and holding on to the Home within the 2024 elections. However Trump's approval on combating inflation stood at simply 35% within the Fox Information survey.

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Border safety and immigration have been additionally successful points for Trump and the GOP in 2024. However within the wake of two deadly shootings by federal brokers of U.S. residents in Minnesota protesting towards the administration's aggressive deportation efforts, the president's ballot numbers on immigration have slipped.

Whereas Trump's approval rankings on border safety stood at 52%-47% within the newest Fox Information ballot, he was at 45%-55% on how he was dealing with immigration.

Tarrant County is Texas' third most populous, and almost a 3rd of its inhabitants is Hispanic.

Trump made main good points with Hispanic voters in Texas and throughout the county as he gained again the White Home in 2024.

"I believe we'd have anticipated that the help amongst Hispanic voters in Texas for Trump would possibly translate to all Republicans. That will not be the case," Steinhauser famous.

And he instructed that "a number of the different imagery popping out of Minnesota is giving folks pause, particularly Hispanic Texans."

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Waiting for November's midterms , when the Democrats want a internet acquire of simply three seats to recapture the Home majority, DNC Chair Ken Martin mentioned that the leads to the Texas particular election "show that no Republican seat is secure."

Two veteran Republican strategists instructed Fox Information Digital Republicans have to showcase their successes to vary the narrative heading into the midterms.

President Donald Trump indicators sweeping spending and tax laws, often called the "One Huge Lovely Invoice Act," throughout a picnic with navy households to mark Independence Day, on the White Home in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2025. (Reuters/Ken Cedeno)

Pointing to the GOP's sweeping "One Huge Lovely Invoice Act," which incorporates quite a few tax cuts that many citizens will really feel this spring, Lance Trover mentioned "Republicans have handed important laws. It’s on us to exit and promote it and remind voters that if Democrats have their manner we're on a quick monitor to socialism."

And Colin Reed emphasised that "if the financial system begins booming on the backs of the One, Huge Lovely Invoice’s provisions taking maintain, the Republican Celebration have to remind America that this was a coverage uniformly supported by one social gathering and opposed by one other. That’s the GOP’s huge guess heading into the midterms."

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And again in Texas, Patrick was optimistic as he regarded head to the midterms.

"I do know the vitality and power the Republican grassroots in Texas possess. We are going to come out combating with a brand new resolve, and we'll take this seat again in November," the lieutenant governor predicted.

Fox Information’ Dana Blanton and Victoria Balara contributed to this report.

Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based mostly within the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the marketing campaign path from coast to coast."