David Jolly's probabilities of successful Florida governor election—Ballot

[ad_1] A brand new ballot of the 2026 Florida governor’s race gave GOP Consultant Byron Donalds a slim lead over former Consultant David Jolly, a former Republican operating as a Democrat.

Newsweek reached out to the Jolly and Donalds campaigns for remark by way of e mail.

Why It Issues Florida, as soon as a battleground evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, zoomed rightward over the previous decade and is now seen as a reliably Republican state, backing President Donald Trump by double digits in final yr's elections. An inflow of conservative retirees into the state, in addition to Trump’s inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters, helped flip the state right into a conservative stronghold.

However Democrats are hoping to make the state, residence to greater than 23 million residents, aggressive as soon as once more within the 2026 midterms. They imagine that Trump’s declining approval score might bolster their possibilities in additional conservative states. Traditionally, the president's get together loses seats within the midterms.

What to Know The newest ballot of the race provides Donalds a lead—however paints an image of a extra aggressive race in comparison with 2022 or 2024, when Republicans dominated within the statewide elections. The ballot was performed by the James Madison Institute and surveyed 1,200 registered voters from February 13-16, 2026. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 share factors.

Within the normal election matchup, Donalds led Jolly by 5 share factors. Forty-one % of respondents mentioned they might vote for the Republican candidate, in comparison with 36 % who mentioned they might assist Jolly. An extra 6 % mentioned they supported state Senator Jason Pizzo, a former Democrat operating as an impartial.

<img id="11595377" alt="" caption="Former Representative David Jolly is sworn into office in Washington, D.C. on March 13, 2014." captionoverride="Former Representative David Jolly is sworn into office in Washington, D.C., on March 13, 2014." src="Alex Wong/Getty Images" sourcealt="" sources="[]" fetchpriority="auto" loading="lazy" width="4320" height="2880" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent;aspect-ratio:inherit;object-fit:cover" sizes="(min-width: 1200px) 1536px, (min-width: 768px) 768px, 100vw" srcset="https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GettyImages-478442413-1.jpg?w=640&quality=80&webp=1 640w, https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GettyImages-478442413-1.jpg?w=750&quality=80&webp=1 750w, https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GettyImages-478442413-1.jpg?w=1000&quality=80&webp=1 1000w, https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GettyImages-478442413-1.jpg?w=1200&quality=80&webp=1 1200w, https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GettyImages-478442413-1.jpg?w=1360&quality=80&webp=1 1360w, https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GettyImages-478442413-1.jpg?w=1600&quality=80&webp=1 1600w" bad-src="https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GettyImages-478442413-1.jpg?w=1600&quality=80&webp=1"/> Nonetheless, 17 % have been undecided. These voters who haven’t made up their thoughts may very well be important within the eventual consequence of the race.

There are different candidates within the race that the ballot didn't take a look at in a normal election.

Republican candidates embody Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former Florida Home Speaker Paul Renner and businessman James Fishback. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings is operating within the Democratic main.

The ballot did discover that Jolly led Demings by 8 factors within the main (31 % to 23 %), with 44 % being undecided.

Donalds additionally led the GOP main with 33 %, in comparison with Collins’ 15 %, Renner’s 9 % and Fishback’s 3 %, in keeping with the ballot.

Sixty-three % of Republicans mentioned they might be extra prone to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump, a probably promising signal for Donalds, who has obtained the Trump endorsement.

Donalds’ adviser Brad Herold responded to the ballot in a submit to X. He shared a submit he made in September that reads, “@ByronDonalds would be the fourth straight Governor of Florida that I've labored for and by no means as soon as has the thought crossed my thoughts, ‘I ponder what JMI‘s polling says.’”

On Friday, he added that it's “nonetheless true right this moment…”

One other new ballot confirmed Donalds with a big lead within the GOP main. The American Promise ballot, first reported by Florida Politics, confirmed his assist at 44 %, in comparison with Fishback’s 5 %, Collins’ 4 % and Renner’s 2 %. The information outlet didn't report methodology on the ballot.

How Aggressive Is Florida Governor’s Race? The Florida gubernatorial race shouldn't be seen as a high goal for Democrats at this level.

Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win the governor's race in November, in keeping with betting odds. Kalshi’s odds give Republicans an 85 % probability, whereas Polymarket’s odds give them an 83 % probability of victory.

Each forecasters, the Prepare dinner Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, classify the race as being protected or strong for Republicans.

What Individuals Are Saying Donalds’ chief strategist responded to the American Promise ballot in a press release: “President Trump trusts Byron. The Radical Left hates Byron. And right this moment’s ballot exhibits but once more that Florida Republicans need Byron to be the following governor. That’s as a result of Byron Donalds is the confirmed America First Conservative fighter who will defend Florida’s future by making our state safer and extra reasonably priced. Florida voters agree with President Trump that Byron Donalds can be an ideal governor.”

The James Madison Institute ballot report reads: “President Trump’s affect is notable. When Floridians are polled about which candidate the President probably endorsed, solely 29% imagine he endorsed Donalds and 48% are unaware. Sixty three % say an endorsement would make them extra prone to assist a candidate (36% rather more, 27% considerably), with 28% unaffected and 4% much less probably. “

What Occurs Subsequent Candidates will spend the approaching months making their circumstances to voters to attempt to solidify assist within the election. The first is about to be held on August 18, 2026, in keeping with the Florida Division of Elections.