Who will lead Iran now that Khamenei is gone? It isn't clear

[ad_1] Within the days because the shock demise of Iran's supreme chief by the hands of the U.S. and Israel Saturday, there was a lot hypothesis — and confusion — about who's in cost and who will succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It is solely the second time because the 1979 Islamic Revolution {that a} new supreme chief is being chosen.

Khamenei, who dominated the nation for 37 years, died Saturday within the assault by Israel and the U.S. with out an formally declared inheritor.

Among the many names that come up most is considered one of Khamenei's sons, Mojtaba. Some media have been already reporting Tuesday that he was the selection. However there has not been official affirmation.

And given the U.S. need for regime change, naming the son of the very man Israel and the U.S. simply killed won't sit effectively with the Trump administration.

Right here’s what to know:

Who's in cost proper now? Within the occasion of the demise of the supreme chief, his powers are transferred briefly to a gaggle of three — the present president, the pinnacle of the judiciary and a senior cleric from the Guardian Council.

At the moment in cost are Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Eje'i and senior Shia cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.

Iran's International Minister Abbas Araghchi mentioned Sunday {that a} new supreme chief could be chosen this week.

<img loading="lazy" alt="Three men in black robes sit in a semi-circle" srcset="https://i.cbc.ca/ais/70c16dc6-10e0-4a9d-959f-223dd75ad5b9,1772592112862/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C0%2C1085%2C602%29%3BResize%3D796 796w,https://i.cbc.ca/ais/70c16dc6-10e0-4a9d-959f-223dd75ad5b9,1772592112862/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C0%2C1085%2C602%29%3BResize%3D1083 1083w,https://i.cbc.ca/ais/70c16dc6-10e0-4a9d-959f-223dd75ad5b9,1772592112862/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C0%2C1085%2C602%29%3BResize%3D1280 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 762px) calc(100vw - 32px),730px" src="https://i.cbc.ca/ais/70c16dc6-10e0-4a9d-959f-223dd75ad5b9,1772592112862/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C0%2C1085%2C602%29%3B" style="aspect-ratio:1.802325581395349" data-cy="image-img"/> Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, the pinnacle of the judiciary and Alireza Arafi, deputy chairman of the Meeting of Specialists, attend a gathering of the interim management council of Iran in an unknown location Monday. (IRIB/West Asia Information Company/Handout/Reuters) Who names the brand new supreme chief? In idea, the brand new chief is chosen by the so-called Meeting of Specialists, made up of 88 Shia clerics who're elected after their candidacies are accredited by Iran's constitutional watchdog, the Guardian Council.

However it's unclear if that may occur because the nation stays below fixed assault. In reality, on Tuesday, the Israel Protection Forces (IDF) mentioned the constructing the place the Meeting was assembly had been bombed. It was not clear whether or not any of the clerics have been killed.

Who're some potential successors? Khamenei had main affect over each the Meeting and the Guardian Council, making it unlikely the following chief will mark a radical departure if chosen by them. And high of that checklist has been Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Khamenei, who's a mid-level Shia cleric.

Mojtaba Khamenei has robust ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) however has by no means held workplace. His choice may be problematic because the Islamic Republic has lengthy criticized hereditary rule.

As effectively, it isn't clear if Mojtaba is even alive. State media reported that his spouse was killed Saturday however made no point out of his whereabouts.

<img loading="lazy" alt="a man in blue and black with a black head covering sitting and reading" srcset="https://i.cbc.ca/ais/1150d9ca-9cf6-4c88-a86c-d5e864ccce87,1772590494840/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C252%2C1249%2C1116%29%3BResize%3D796 796w,https://i.cbc.ca/ais/1150d9ca-9cf6-4c88-a86c-d5e864ccce87,1772590494840/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C252%2C1249%2C1116%29%3BResize%3D1083 1083w,https://i.cbc.ca/ais/1150d9ca-9cf6-4c88-a86c-d5e864ccce87,1772590494840/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C252%2C1249%2C1116%29%3BResize%3D1280 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 762px) calc(100vw - 32px),730px" src="https://i.cbc.ca/ais/1150d9ca-9cf6-4c88-a86c-d5e864ccce87,1772590494840/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C252%2C1249%2C1116%29%3B" style="aspect-ratio:1.1191756272401434" data-cy="image-img"/> Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Iran's Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran Oct. 1, 2024. (Workplace of the Iranian Supreme Chief/West Asia Information Company/Reuters) Ali Reza Arafi is a senior Shia cleric who was hand-picked by Khamenei to be a member of the Guardian Council in 2019, and three years later he was elected to the Meeting of Specialists.

Hassan Khomeini is the grandson of the founding father of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. He's seen as a relative reasonable, however has additionally by no means held authorities workplace.

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's final shah, has additionally come up as a doable subsequent successor, particularly at rallies for regime change outdoors Iran. He was 16 when Iran’s 1979 revolution toppled his father. He has lived within the U.S. ever since.

In an interview Sunday with CBS’s 60 Minutes, he mentioned he sees himself as "a transitional chief. Not as the longer term king or future president or future no matter," he mentioned.

"Let me deliver the nation to some extent that they'll make that free selection. That might be sufficient for me having mentioned mission achieved."

<img loading="lazy" alt="A person holds up a photo of a man" srcset="https://i.cbc.ca/ais/2cce0900-f8f1-4d9c-8e39-c68442f9dbec,1772590601461/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C0%2C6000%2C4000%29%3BResize%3D796 796w,https://i.cbc.ca/ais/2cce0900-f8f1-4d9c-8e39-c68442f9dbec,1772590601461/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C0%2C6000%2C4000%29%3BResize%3D1083 1083w,https://i.cbc.ca/ais/2cce0900-f8f1-4d9c-8e39-c68442f9dbec,1772590601461/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C0%2C6000%2C4000%29%3BResize%3D1280 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 762px) calc(100vw - 32px),730px" src="https://i.cbc.ca/ais/2cce0900-f8f1-4d9c-8e39-c68442f9dbec,1772590601461/full/max/0/default.jpg?im=Crop%2Crect%3D%280%2C0%2C6000%2C4000%29%3B" style="aspect-ratio:1.5" data-cy="image-img"/> A demonstrator in New York shows a portrait of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's final shah, as folks rally in opposition to Iran's ruling regime Monday. (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters) Trump, although, has expressed doubts about Pahlavi. Requested about him Tuesday, Trump mentioned that whereas "some folks like him," he was not sure "how he'd play inside his personal nation."

“I do not know whether or not or not his nation would settle for his management," he added. "Definitely if they'd, that will be high quality with me."

WATCH | What does the U.S. need?: U.S. secretary of state says he hopes Iranian folks can overthrow their authorities

Secretary of State Marco Rubio advised reporters Monday the U.S. hopes the Iranian folks can overthrow the federal government in Tehran following the killing of the nation's supreme chief, however that the target of the U.S. mission is to destroy Iran's short-range ballistic missile functionality and eradicate the menace posed by its navy. Has Trump weighed in on a successor? In a video concerning the assault on Iran posted Saturday, Trump known as on the Iranian folks to "take over your authorities. It is going to be yours to take. This will probably be, most likely, your solely likelihood for generations."

Later that day, he advised CBS Information that there have been "some good candidates" to interchange Khamenei, however he didn't title them.

Requested once more Tuesday if he had anybody in thoughts to take over management in Iran, Trump advised reporters within the Oval Workplace, "Properly, the general public we had in thoughts are lifeless."

Sahar Razavi, affiliate professor and director of the Iranian and Center Jap Research Middle at California State College, Sacramento, says Trump has not been very clear generally on what he's asking for or what he desires.

"I believe that it is also doable that that is rhetorical framing so as to have the ability to put somebody in that maybe a majority of Iranians don't help," Razavi mentioned in an interview with CBC’s Andrew Nichols, "however they're being primed to consider that there aren't any options left, and they also could be prepared to simply accept whoever america places in place."

WATCH | The tough street to a successor: Who will succeed Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after his demise?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Saturday, Iranian state media mentioned. It stays unclear who the nation's subsequent supreme chief will probably be. Sahar Razavi, director of the Iranian and Center East Research Middle at California State College Sacramento, breaks down a few of the potentialities. What else may occur? For months, folks have flooded the streets of Iran calling for the tip of the brutal management regime. There have been requires a shift to a democratic system.

Razavi is not sure that may occur.

"It is tough to see how Iran may emerge from this as a meaningfully democratic system whether it is occurring on the finish of the barrel of a gun," she mentioned.

Razavi mentioned she will be able to additionally see a situation wherein the IRGC takes over and Iran turns into a navy dictatorship, or that there's some sort of a compromise that permits the Islamic republic to retain itself and its construction in title whereas making very deep concessions to U.S. and Israeli international coverage pursuits.

And he or she warned there may be a whole regime collapse and creation of an influence vacuum and that would go away Iran weak to international occupation.

"There are quite a lot of completely different potentialities and positively democracy is considered one of them," she mentioned, "but it surely's tough to see a transparent path to that."

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