The Iran battle threatens one thing extra vital than oil costs

[ad_1] The gasoline costs are unmissable.

For the reason that US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, Brent crude oil has surged past $100 a barrel for the primary time in 4 years, briefly topping $119 on March 19. California drivers are paying over $5 a gallon, whereas gasoline costs in Japan hit a record high . The Worldwide Power Company (IEA) coordinated a release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves — the most important in historical past. Gasoline station value boards have replaced worried stock traders because the picture du jour of financial disaster.

So that's the disaster you already know about.

Right here’s one you might not: the Strait of Hormuz, now effectively closed to Western-allied commercial shipping for the third consecutive week, is a key route for extra than simply oil. It additionally carries roughly a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade — together with practically half of all international urea exports and 30 % of ammonia, according to farm sector analysts . These are the chemical constructing blocks that make our present agricultural system attainable. When Iran shut the strait, it didn’t simply curtail gas. It curtailed entry to one of many fundamental parts of recent meals.

“We’re up for a meals catastrophe and all we speak about is gasoline costs,” Michael Werz, a senior fellow on the Council on Overseas Relations who makes a speciality of meals safety, told the Atlantic this week .

He’s proper. And the rationale most individuals don’t see this disaster coming is that most individuals don’t perceive what fossil fuels truly are — and precisely what we actually want them for.

The chain that retains us alive

<img alt="A block chart showing world energy consumption by source, with oil, coal and gas the largest blocks." data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="mvmjsc0" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='/%3E%3C/svg%3E")" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400"/> After we take into consideration fossil fuels, we take into consideration burning them — in our vehicles, in energy vegetation, in furnaces. That’s the model of fossil gas dependence that dominates the general public dialog, and it’s the model that the clear vitality transition is, progressively, addressing. Renewables now generate more than half of Germany’s electricity , led by photo voltaic and wind. Electrical autos are growing fast .

This represents actual progress, and it’s one cause why many nations are better equipped to handle this oil crisis than previous ones . However fossil fuels aren’t simply gas. They're, in a fairly literal sense, the molecular basis of recent civilization.

Should you don’t imagine me, ask somebody who is aware of much more about this (and about most issues, actually): the Czech-Canadian scientist Vaclav Smil.

Smil, who we named to our Future Perfect 50 list in 2024 , has spent a long time cataloguing the world’s unexpectedly deep dependence on fossil fuels in books that must be required studying for anybody who desires to grasp trendy life. In his 2022 How the World Really Works , he identifies 4 “materials pillars” of civilization: cement, metal, plastics, and ammonia. All 4 require fossil fuels not merely as an vitality supply however as a fundamental chemical enter with out which the manufacturing course of can't occur.

Ammonia is the one which issues most proper now. By the century-old Haber-Bosch process , pure gasoline is mixed with atmospheric nitrogen at excessive temperatures and pressures to supply ammonia, which is then transformed into the nitrogen fertilizers that maintain international agriculture. Smil estimates that roughly half the nitrogen in our our bodies comes from this course of. In its absence, international agriculture could support perhaps 3 to 4 billion people , far lower than the greater than 8 billion alive at the moment. The distinction at the moment — these 4-plus billion folks — is fed, in a really actual chemical sense, by fossil fuels.

<img alt="A line chart showing world population with and without nitrogen fertilizers; the line with it reaches above 7 billion, while the line without it is under 4 billion." data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="mvmjsc0" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='/%3E%3C/svg%3E")" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400"/> The Persian Gulf is a fertilizer powerhouse — the identical considerable pure gasoline that powers economies around the globe additionally serves because the feedstock for ammonia manufacturing. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are main fertilizer exporters, and the broader Gulf area is a important provider of urea, ammonia, sulfur, and phosphates. Iranian drones struck QatarEnergy’s amenities early within the battle, denting LNG production . Yesterday, its CEO revealed to Reuters that the cumulative harm is way worse than initially understood: 17 % of Qatar’s LNG export capability might have been knocked offline for maybe three to 5 years. As a result of that very same pure gasoline is the feedstock for ammonia and fertilizer manufacturing, this implies the disruption to the worldwide meals provide chain will outlast any ceasefire.

What has occurred is Econ 101. Urea costs have surged for the reason that disaster started, hitting farmers simply as spring planting ramps up. That timing matters : fertilizer is among the greatest variable prices in crop manufacturing, and better costs now may ripple into decrease yields and better meals costs later this 12 months.

Whereas the world has an structure of response for an oil disaster like this one — strategic petroleum reserves, bypass pipelines from Saudi Arabia to the Purple Sea, naval escort discussions, IEA coordination — almost none of that exists for fertilizer. G7 nations don’t keep strategic fertilizer reserves. The Saudi bypass pipeline carries crude, not ammonia. A ship captain daring sufficient to courageous the strait underneath drone hearth would select to hold oil over fertilizer — it’s price extra per ton. Every bit of disaster infrastructure is constructed to guard the commodity that markets perceive and worth extra. Fertilizer, the commodity that truly feeds folks, is an afterthought.

Worse, the nations that depend upon imported fertilizer most are those least geared up to compete for scarce provide. India, which imports more than half its LNG from the Gulf and whose monsoon planting season begins in June, had already seen home fertilizer producers lower urea output. Brazil, the world’s largest fertilizer importer, makes use of sources exposed to disruptions in the Middle East . Sub-Saharan African nations — those whose fertilizer use dropped most during the 2022 Ukraine-driven price spike — may as soon as depend on overseas help to fill gaps. With USAID dissolved and most of its features absorbed elsewhere, that backstop could also be gone.

This burgeoning disaster demonstrates why diversifying away from fossil fuels and the chokepoints they circulation via is so pressing. Most of the nations which have been weathering the state of affairs greatest — like Spain with its abundant solar buildout — are those that invested in options.

However the vitality transition that’s underway has been, overwhelmingly, an electrical energy story — and electrical energy is simply a few fifth of global final energy consumption . The issues that feed folks, transfer freight, warmth buildings, and make supplies — the deep bodily infrastructure of a globalized planet — stay nearly solely depending on fossil hydrocarbons. (Whereas nations just like the US which have considerable fossil gas reserves are in a greater place, sources like oil and ammonia are priced on a world market, so there’s a restrict to how impartial anybody will be.) Although in principle you may make ammonia with out fossil fuels — use renewable electrical energy to supply hydrogen, then feed it into the identical course of — such “inexperienced ammonia” continues to be a rounding error in global production . It's nowhere close to the size that might feed a nation, not to mention a planet.

The Hormuz disaster has carried out one thing uncommon: It's making the invisible seen. It has proven us, in actual time, that trendy civilization rests on a molecular basis most individuals have by no means thought-about — methane turned to ammonia turned to nitrogen turned to meals. That basis is extraordinary. It has enabled essentially the most affluent period in human historical past, the feeding of billions who wouldn't in any other case exist. It's one thing we must always have fun.

It is usually, as we're studying proper now, terribly fragile. The suitable response to that fragility is to shore up these chains, to diversify via backups and options. As an alternative, the Trump administration, in its vast carelessness , has chosen to smash all of it up, because it has carried out with so many different valuable issues.

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