Austin’s falling rents supply uncommon excellent news about housing affordability in America

[ad_1] Right here is one narrative violation within the typical drumbeat of doom that we’re used to listening to about housing in America: The lease, in lots of cities throughout the US, is getting cheaper.

After hovering to Covid-era highs , rents have cooled. Final month, the nationwide median lease was down 1.7 p.c from one yr prior, based on analysis from the rental market Apartment List . This made it the most important annual decline because the firm began monitoring lease information in 2017.

One success story stands out amongst all the remainder: Austin, Texas, the place rents dropped by a full 6 p.c over the previous yr, greater than in every other massive metro space within the US. The Austin space’s median lease, at $1,274, is again to roughly the place it was proper earlier than the pandemic — which signifies that, in 2026 {dollars}, it’s considerably cheaper than it was in 2019.

<img alt="Line chart comparing median apartment rents for all unit sizes in Austin, Texas, and the US from 2017 to 2026. Austin rents rise from $1,167 in 2017 to a peak of about $1,630 in 2022, then fall sharply to $1,274 in 2026. US rents rise from $1,069 in 2017 to about $1,440 in 2022-23, then ease down to $1,363 in 2026. Austin starts above the national median but ends below it after a steeper decline." data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="mvmjsc0" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='/%3E%3C/svg%3E")" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/LZlBA-rents-are-falling-across-the-us-and-in-austin-most-of-all-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400"/> For the previous decade, Austin has been a standard-bearer for the YIMBY (Sure in My Yard) motion, passing a barrage of coverage adjustments to make it simpler to construct new housing, particularly new house buildings. In keeping with a current report from the Pew Charitable Trusts’ housing coverage initiative, these reforms are accountable largely for the sharp drop in rents loved by Austinites over the past a number of years.

Housing economists overwhelmingly agree that, to carry dwelling costs down, cities have to embrace supply-side reforms that reduce away the thicket of regulation that make it oddly troublesome to do one thing as seemingly easy as construct an house constructing — an argument that I and others at Vox have echoed many times .

However housing markets are enormously sophisticated and formed by many elements; it’s difficult for researchers to measure the precise results of insurance policies like these rolled out in Austin. Pew’s report definitely gives sturdy suggestive proof that the town’s coverage reforms made an actual distinction — however keep in mind that, since round 2022, rents have fallen nationwide, too, and in lots of different cities fairly considerably. So it appears seemingly that at the least a few of Austin’s lease decline would have occurred anyway, even with out its full suite of YIMBY reforms.

How can we isolate the impacts of reforms meant to extend housing provide, work out which of them labored, and to what extent they labored? These are questions housing consultants are taking on proper now, and so they’re not merely educational ones. Getting them proper is how we are going to claw our method out of a housing affordability disaster that nearly nobody doubts exists — at the same time as some disagree over learn how to resolve it.

Austin’s housing increase, defined

Within the 2010s, an area increase fueled by tech jobs drew a whole lot of hundreds of recent residents to Austin and its suburbs. Following a trajectory acquainted to different high-demand cities throughout that interval, Austin’s rents soared — of their case by almost 50 p.c in that interval, based on information from the Census Bureau — and single-family home prices climbed even sooner. So the town sought methods to quickly increase its housing provide to fulfill the surge in demand.

Austin is hardly the one metropolis that has tried to unfetter homebuilding to ease its value of dwelling. However it's exceptional for the sheer breadth of reforms it’s adopted, Alex Horowitz, challenge director for Pew’s housing coverage initiative, instructed me — which was one of the vital vital takeaways from his group’s Austin analysis. These reforms have included:

Updating zoning codes throughout elements of the town to routinely permit the development of tall house buildings in some locations moderately than requiring every to undergo a protracted and expensive allowing course of. Decreasing and later, in 2023, eliminating parking minimums for just about all new properties. (Elsewhere within the US, parking mandates — i.e., a minimal variety of off-street areas accessible per unit — make housing more expensive, and sometimes physically impossible, to build .) Making it considerably simpler to construct accent dwelling models (ADUs), that are smaller properties that sit alongside homes on single-family heaps. Allowing as much as three properties to be constructed on heaps zoned for single-family homes and greatly cutting down the minimal lot dimension required to construct a single-family dwelling, encouraging builders so as to add small, inexpensive starter properties. Creating density bonuses that permit builders to construct taller in change for setting apart some models as income-restricted at decrease rents — an method that, the Pew report notes, has added extra market-rate and extra reasonably priced residences. Final yr, Austin’s metropolis council voted to legalize house buildings as much as 5 tales constructed with a single staircase, as an alternative of the 2 staircases required by default in most US building codes — a longtime YIMBY holy grail as a result of it might drop the price of new buildings and open up more room and unit format flexibility. “Not many cities have taken as many alternative steps as Austin has,” Horowitz mentioned. That issues as a result of passing any single reform — even when it’s a giant one, like Minneapolis’s 2018 decision to finish single-family zoning — might not spur a lot dwelling development if an insurmountable wall of different guidelines nonetheless makes initiatives infeasible.

As housing advocates have put it to me earlier than, housing is sort of a door with many deadbolts on it; unlocking only one won't magically open the door for extra constructing. You may legalize triplexes on each single-family lot in America, but when the native zoning code requires each single unit to have two off-street parking spots, the triplex won't get constructed as a result of there’s simply not sufficient room for all that parking.

Austin’s broad vary of coverage adjustments meant that, between 2015 and 2024, the town managed so as to add 120,000 properties, Pew discovered — a surprising 30 p.c enhance in its housing inventory. From 2023 to 2024, rents fell particularly quick in “Class C” buildings — older, inexpensive buildings typically occupied by individuals of modest incomes. This was a very vital discovering as a result of NIMBYs routinely oppose new-construction “gentrification buildings” on the grounds that they’re unaffordable to all however the prosperous. However by the legal guidelines of provide and demand, constructing new properties in an space lowers the price of housing throughout the board, together with older, cheaper models, a phenomenon that has been demonstrated empirically .

Attacking the town’s housing scarcity from so many alternative angles has additionally achieved one other factor, Horowitz identified. Austin has constructed an unusually various combine of recent properties, together with not simply residences in massive buildings — though these nonetheless make up almost half of the town’s new models as a result of they’re such an environment friendly solution to home individuals — but in addition smaller house buildings, single-family properties, and townhouses. These diverse choices give residents extra selection in the place to dwell, and in addition might assist retain individuals within the metropolis as they've households and search extra dwelling area.

<img alt="Donut chart showing the types of new homes added in Austin since 2015. Large apartment buildings make up 47% of new homes, single-family detached homes 25%, medium apartment buildings 11%, townhomes 7%, small apartment buildings 7%, and plexes 3%. The chart shows that while large apartment buildings account for the biggest share, more than half of new homes came from other housing types." data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="mvmjsc0" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='/%3E%3C/svg%3E")" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/hpi_3-12_3d_b27a1d.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400"/> The sudden state of the US rental market

However how does Austin’s expertise — its steep rise in dwelling costs within the 2010s and early 2020s, and subsequent decline — examine to what’s been taking place in different cities?

Right here is one fascinating statement about Residence Listing’s newest evaluation — the one which discovered a putting drop in rents nationwide over the past yr:

<img alt="Screenshot of a March 30, 2026 post by John Arnold on X. The post says apartment rents have normalized back to their pre-Covid trendline of about 3 percent annual growth after a 2021 demand shock driven by stimulus, wealth effects, working from home, and people wanting fewer roommates. Below the text is a chart of US median rent from 2017 to 2026 showing a steady pre-2021 upward trend, a sharp spike in 2021-22, and then a decline back toward the earlier trendline by 2026." data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="mvmjsc0" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='/%3E%3C/svg%3E")" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/signal-2026-04-09-151051.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400"/> From 2017 to 2026, the US nationwide median lease grew by about 3 p.c per yr on common — lower than the overall rate of inflation throughout the identical interval. The early 2020s run-up in rents ended up being partially canceled out by a sustained (if uneven) decline that started in 2022.

That occurred as a result of many metro areas, particularly within the Sunbelt, constructed numerous new residences prior to now few years. “We’ve been going by way of this huge multi-family development increase,” Chris Salviati, chief economist for Residence Listing, instructed me. “Once we began to see lease progress softening over the previous couple of years, I believe that was anticipated as a result of we had all these models that had been getting accomplished.” Rents have fallen sharply in cities from Denver to San Antonio to Portland, Oregon.

that chart, you would possibly even assume, “Wait, what housing disaster?” It seems that many cities and their surrounding areas had been completely able to including new housing to fulfill the early 2020s’ surge in demand. So had been restrictive zoning codes actually holding them again within the first place? Lease will increase have even moderated over the past decade in notoriously unaffordable markets like San Francisco — since 2017, rents in that metro space have solely grown, on common, lower than 1 p.c per yr:

<img alt="Line chart showing median apartment rent in the San Francisco metro area from 2017 to 2026. Rents start at $2,508 in 2017, fluctuate mostly between about $2,500 and $2,700, dip sharply to around $2,280 in 2021, then recover to $2,724 in 2026." data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="mvmjsc0" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='/%3E%3C/svg%3E")" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/2gsuG-rents-in-san-francisco-already-hyper-expensive-have-gone-up-little-since-2017-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400"/> So, are US housing markets not as catastrophically dysfunctional as we’d been led to imagine by the housing scarcity doomsayers?

A extra cautious have a look at the proof suggests it wouldn’t be proper to go fairly that far. For one factor, we now have not seen as a lot moderation in the price of homes for sale as we now have in leases. And housing markets are hyper-local, so nationwide lease averages obscure numerous regional variation. Loads of cities have seen speedy current progress in housing costs which have far outpaced inflation — like Madison, Wisconsin, the place I dwell, the place rents have climbed by greater than 7 p.c per yr on common between the start of 2017 and 2026:

<img alt="Line chart showing median apartment rent in the Madison, Wisconsin, metro area from 2017 to 2026. Rents rise steadily from $910 in 2017 to $1,519 in 2026, with especially sharp increases after 2021. The overall trend is a strong upward climb, with only minor dips along the way." data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="mvmjsc0" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='/%3E%3C/svg%3E")" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/sMW7p-rents-have-soared-in-fast-growing-madison-wisconsin-.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400"/> Coastal celebrity cities like San Francisco, in the meantime, had been already at a hyper-expensive baseline pre-pandemic as a result of their dwelling costs had been frog-boiling towards unaffordability over the course of many years. That's a part of what’s pushed many People to maneuver to cities like Austin (and Madison, for that matter) seeking good jobs and better affordability. And that rents have slowed within the Bay Space isn't essentially proof that the area has constructed sufficient housing to fulfill demand.

The truth is, we all know it’s been underbuilding for a few years: By the town’s personal accounting, San Francisco added 211,000 jobs from 2009 to 2019, creating a necessity for 154,000 housing models, however it constructed solely 29,500 properties in that interval. It’s woefully off track to fulfill its homebuilding targets this decade, too. So the comparatively flat rents within the metropolis might extra seemingly recommend that it has hit an “unaffordability ceiling,” as Salviati put it. “We simply hit a degree the place the market can now not maintain costs going up by five-plus p.c yearly,” he mentioned. (And would-be residents of the town are merely pushed to maneuver farther afield.)

Causation is difficult to show in housing markets, although, and taking a look at short-term worth adjustments alone can simply result in misinterpretation. You may have an especially high-demand metro that doesn’t construct a lot, like San Francisco, that sees plateauing costs as a result of it’s already so costly that the market can’t bear rather more. And you may have a metropolis that builds numerous new properties relative to its present housing inventory — as Madison has over the past decade — and nonetheless sees hovering rents as a result of it didn’t construct sufficient to accommodate all of the individuals who need to transfer to the world, and nonetheless had extra room to soak up lease progress. Madison, for instance, added 22,472 properties — greater than three-quarters of which had been residences in developments with at the least 25 models — between 2015 and 2024. That could be a lot relative to the town’s dimension: a 20 p.c enhance in its housing inventory. Nevertheless it nonetheless underproduced what it wanted, a shortfall that shortly piles up within the form of restricted provide, excessive demand, and rising rents.

What’s not unsure is that housing provide is crucially important in shaping prices. And post-pandemic, many US cities confirmed an sudden skill so as to add sufficient provide to push down among the costs that precipitated People a lot heartburn across the pandemic years. The related query for judging the ramifications of Austin’s housing reforms is not only whether or not housing acquired constructed after they handed and even whether or not the town’s rents dropped, however whether or not these issues wouldn’t have occurred if not for these new legal guidelines.

May the skeptics have a sound level?

I first grew to become obsessive about that query when, a couple of months in the past, I came upon an interesting (to a weirdo like me) little bit of economics drama. Though most consultants would let you know that reforming restrictive zoning legal guidelines in scorching markets like Austin will carry down dwelling costs, a contrarian group of economists just lately dared to ask: What if it doesn’t?

In a controversial working paper , these researchers argued that measured housing provide constraints — like zoning codes that ban something however single-family properties in most US neighborhoods — might not matter a lot for dwelling costs throughout US metro areas, truly. One writer of that paper, economist John Mondragon, a analysis adviser on the Federal Reserve Financial institution of San Francisco, cast doubt on the YIMBY narrative about Austin in a LinkedIn submit earlier this yr.

“The Austin, TX housing provide success story is one thing of a shibboleth in most housing circles,” he wrote. “Usually the massive decline in Austin home costs or rents over the previous few years is marshaled as proof. Sadly, I don't discover this type of informal have a look at the information to be very illuminating.”

The working paper has been a lightning rod within the area, drawing formal refutations from economists Michael Wiebe and Salim Furth ; the authors printed their own responses to these responses, in addition to a nine-page document of frequently asked questions . Totally accounting for the dispute is exterior the scope of this piece (to know it, one economist inspired me to contact a theoretical econometrician, which is like an economist however with much more math). However suffice it to say that as a working paper, it must be taken with a hefty serving of salt.

Concerning Austin, nonetheless, Mondragon raises a sound level. The town, like so many others, noticed an excessive rise in rents early within the pandemic; that tends to induce builders to construct extra to allow them to profit from excessive costs. So it’s arduous to untangle whether or not Austin’s development increase and subsequent lease declines are the results of its new zoning insurance policies, or just the market’s pure response to pandemic-era worth spikes.

Dwelling development typically occurs in boom-and-bust cycles like these — builders construct numerous housing till the provision glut pushes costs down, which reduces the inducement to construct extra and sometimes limits how a lot additional costs may be diminished. That’s what seems to have occurred in US cities in the previous few years, and it’s not unreasonable to assume this dynamic was at play in Austin, too. Curiously, a 2025 post by the Nationwide Multifamily Housing Council, a commerce affiliation for the house business, made an analogous argument about Austin — that its lease drops had extra to do with builders responding to cost alerts than it did with any current regulatory reforms.

<img alt="Aerial view of a multi-story apartment building under construction beside a busy intersection in Austin, Texas, surrounded by low-rise homes, businesses, and tree-covered neighborhoods." data-chromatic="ignore" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="mvmjsc0" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='/%3E%3C/svg%3E")" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 1023px) 50vw, 700px" srcset="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=256 256w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=376 376w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=384 384w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=415 415w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=480 480w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=540 540w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=640 640w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=750 750w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=828 828w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1080 1080w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1200 1200w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1440 1440w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=1920 1920w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2048 2048w, https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400 2400w" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1470342110.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400"/> Residences below development in Austin. Brandon Bell/Getty Photographs

This disagreement issues not simply because it’s vital to know what shapes housing affordability, but in addition as a result of a rising YIMBY consensus in US politics — nationally and domestically — continues to be a fragile one, and it wants to have the ability to reply challenges and counterarguments, and think twice about causation. Native coverage leaders increasingly agree that there's a relationship between housing provide and housing costs, similar to the fundamental financial forces at play in markets for every kind of products. However many communities throughout the US are nonetheless pushed about by NIMBYs who advocate fiercely towards permitting extra housing development. Mondragon and his co-authors’ paper was shortly taken up as ammunition by these improvement opponents.

In the meantime, a gradual drip of different experiences, generally sloppy, uncontrolled ones authored by non-economists, nonetheless downplay the position of housing shortage in driving excessive dwelling costs. It’s “a cottage business of manufacturing anti-YIMBY, low-quality research,” Ned Resnikoff, a fellow on the Roosevelt Institute who just lately wrote a response to some of these experiences, instructed me.

After I raised all this to Pew’s Alex Horowitz, I acquired the sense that he was aggravated on the suggestion that there’s any actual debate right here. “The overwhelming majority of educational analysis papers on this subject have reached the identical conclusion, which is that offer influences prices,” he mentioned. “Periodically there's a paper that comes out in a distinct place, however, I might say, not utilizing standard financial strategies.”

Economists have estimated the significance of provide constraints on housing utilizing a variety of strategies: If dwelling costs in a metropolis far exceed the price of constructing a house, for instance, like they do in the costliest US cities, then that must induce builders to need to construct extra as a result of they stand to revenue an incredible deal. In the event that they don’t construct a lot despite this, then that factors strongly to the chance that offer constraints — regulation, in addition to geographic limits — are getting in the way in which. Researchers have additionally directly estimated how a lot regulatory purple tape provides to the price of homebuilding — it’s quite a bit!

Though the exact forces behind Austin’s current lease declines haven't but been completely dissected in a managed, peer-reviewed research, Horowitz mentioned that the proof from Pew’s case research factors overwhelmingly to the effectiveness of the town’s constructing reforms. The researchers “very explicitly see that numerous the brand new properties getting constructed [in Austin] weren’t beforehand allowed,” he mentioned. “It simply doesn’t take a lot of a leap to see the causality there.”

The 2 views might not, ultimately, be that tough to reconcile. Mondragon and his co-authors don’t deny that housing provide shapes costs (you’d be laughed out of the sector for suggesting in any other case). Nonetheless you slice it, we'd like a adequate provide of housing to ensure that housing to be reasonably priced. The authors are, moderately, unconvinced that constraints like zoning are meaningfully holding again provide. However even that declare, which has been ferociously contested by different housing researchers, is weaker than it seems at first look as a result of the working paper does acknowledge that offer constraints “nearly definitely” matter on the stage of particular person neighborhoods (the authors argue that these results don’t present up on the stage of total metro areas).

Finally, we'd like not watch for good proof to have the ability to discuss what's, to one of the best of our understanding, seemingly taking place within the American housing market. It appears unlikely to be a mere coincidence that the cities that had the best current lease declines are concentrated within the Sunbelt, which tends to have fewer constraints on constructing housing than coastal cities. Even inside that area, Austin outperformed each in what number of properties it added and in how a lot costs dropped: “Austin is the market that has constructed probably the most new multi-family housing per capita by a fairly large hole,” Salviati mentioned.

Is it attainable that each one these new properties and lowered rents had nothing to do with Austin’s aggressive push to make it simpler to construct extra properties? Maybe, and possibly peer-reviewed analysis will ultimately discover that Austin’s zoning adjustments weren’t as huge a deal as YIMBYs thought, although my hunch is that they’ll find yourself mattering quite a bit. Within the meantime, there's each cause for New York, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and their suburbs to strive the identical experiment in housing abundance that Austin has. They will begin with what Horowitz calls the “one-two punch” of insurance policies for bettering housing affordability: permit house buildings to be constructed by proper in as many locations as attainable, and cut back parking mandates.

And like every good experiment, we’ll want exacting evaluation to know the way it’s working. Possibly I’ll name that theoretical econometrician in spite of everything — or at the least ask my mayor to.

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