After Trump’s historic Iran-Israel truce, do ceasefires actually deliver peace?

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President Donald Trump brokered an historic ceasefire settlement between Israel and Iran on Monday, marking a dramatic pause in probably the most vital army confrontation between the 2 foes.

The Monday night announcement took impact 12 hours later, following a timeline designed to permit last army maneuvers on either side. Nonetheless, a barrage of Iranian missile fireplace within the hours that adopted left many Israelis questioning whether or not the truce had already been violated.

In an interview with Fox Information Digital, John Spencer, govt director of the City Warfare Institute, stated such delayed implementation will not be uncommon. "It’s exhausting to show issues off on a change. You have got plane in flight. You have got forces in place," he defined.

TRUMP BROKERS IRAN CEASEFIRE AS EXPERTS SAY REGIME’S ARSENAL IS SHATTERED BUT THREAT REMAINS

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters on the Israel-Iran ceasefire earlier than boarding Marine One on the South Garden of the White Home on Tuesday, June 24, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (AP Picture/Evan Vucci)

Spencer described the U.S. operation as historic.

"What’s historic is that the U.S. carried out a restricted operation on nuclear targets with zero losses—no pilot, no gear—and helped Israel in a method solely America might. Nuclear proliferation is nonpartisan, and this was an apolitical win." Even after Iran struck a U.S. base in Qatar, he added, "the President confirmed immense restraint and saved give attention to the broader purpose: stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and persevering with its terror marketing campaign."

Regardless of the violence that adopted the announcement — together with an Iranian strike that killed 4 civilians in Israel — Spencer believes the ceasefire will maintain. "Each international locations have now stated we’re completely going to do it," he stated. "And sure, President Trump may be very atypical in the way in which he communicates with the ceasefire… with the ‘don’t drop a single bomb.’ "

To grasp how ceasefires like this unfold, Spencer pointed to 5 historic precedents marked by delayed activation, phased objectives, and a last window for army positioning.

An Israeli fighter jet takes off to launch airstrikes in opposition to the Houthis in Yemen. (IDF)

Korean Struggle Armistice (1953) Signed on July 27, 1953, the armistice that ended the Korean Struggle was structured with a deliberate 12-hour delay earlier than taking impact. "This allowed last army actions earlier than a synchronized halt," Spencer stated — a mannequin the Israel-Iran ceasefire intently echoes.

A tour group visits the Korean Struggle Memorial on Veterans Day in Washington, D.C.

Yom Kippur Struggle Ceasefire (1973) Then-Israeli Protection Minister, Normal Moshe Dajan, left, with then-Main Normal Ariel Sharon stand on the Egyptian aspect of the Suez Canal in the course of the 4th Israeli-Arab Struggle on Oct. 18, 1973. (Picture by UPI/image alliance through Getty Pictures)

Spencer famous that in 1973, Israel used the ultimate hours earlier than a U.N.-brokered ceasefire to reposition forces. "Israel made a bunch of strikes in these final hours… to incorporate encircling the Third Military, transferring on Suez Metropolis," he stated, referencing his case examine on the Battle of Suez Metropolis.

TRUMP ANNOUNCES HISTORIC IRAN AND ISRAEL CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT TO END '12 DAY WAR'

Dayton Accords (1995) <img src="https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2018/09/1200/675/best-1-pix-21.jpg?ve=1&tl=1" alt="In this photo taken on Sunday, March 20, 2016, a Bosnian woman walks among gravestones at Memorial Centre Potocari near Srebrenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic will hear his verdict on Thursday, March 24, 2016 and prosecutors of the U.N. war crimes tribunal have called for life in prison for 11 counts of war crimes, including genocide he is accused of having masterminded during Bosnia's 1992-95 war. (AP Photo/Amel Emric)" width="1200" height="675"/> A Bosnian lady walks amongst gravestones at Memorial Heart Potocari close to Srebrenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 20, 2016. (AP Picture/Amel Emric)

Ending the Bosnian Struggle, the U.S.-brokered Dayton Peace Accords established a phased timeline for troop withdrawals and political agreements. "That was a U.N., a number of international locations signing into an settlement of what either side would and wouldn’t do," Spencer defined, contrasting it with the looser phrases of the present Israel-Iran ceasefire.

Israel-Hamas Ceasefires (2014) Smoke rises over buildings within the north-east of Gaza Metropolis after a missile fired from Gaza landed wanting its goal on Aug. 21, 2014. (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP through Getty Picture)

Spencer additionally drew parallels to the 2014 battle in Gaza. "Hamas would say, ‘Okay, we would like a ceasefire… simply till the subsequent time they break the ceasefire,’" he stated. Lots of these agreements had 12- to 72-hour activation delays, related to what's now seen with Iran.

Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Proposals Servicemen of Ukraine's 93rd Mechanized Brigade fireplace a French MO-120-RT heavy mortar on the Russian forces on the entrance line close to town of Bakhmut in Ukraine's Donetsk area on Wednesday, Might 22, 2024. (Iryna Rybakova through AP)

Much more lately, in the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine battle, ceasefires had been usually transient and symbolic. "Putin stated, ‘I would like three days so I can do my parade,’" Spencer remarked, highlighting how momentary pauses can serve each strategic and political wants.

Whereas previous ceasefires had been designed to sluggish escalation, Spencer sees this one as a part of a broader strategic doctrine. "To assist Israel in a method solely United States might, that must be nonpartisan," he stated. "For the USA to do a really restricted operation, with no single lack of American life… that’s distinctive."

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Rescuers work on the scene of an explosion after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, on Friday, June 13, 2025. (Iranian Crimson Crescent Society through AP)

Spencer described the ceasefire as "an off-ramp" for either side. "Ceasefire right here signifies that either side will cease capturing at one another. It doesn’t imply that Iran will cease chanting ‘Loss of life to America and dying to Israel ,’" he stated. "However the operations and hostilities have stopped."

Regardless of the dearth of formal phrases or worldwide enforcement, Spencer believes the settlement created a brand new precedent. "This established a brand new doctrine," he stated, citing Israel’s capacity to dominate Iranian skies and the U.S. response to nuclear proliferation threats. "If Iran decides to rebuild some websites someplace, the threats will probably be extra current than ever."

Spencer concluded, "It's a win. When purple strains are actually purple strains, they're efficient at deterrence."

Efrat Lachter is an investigative reporter and battle correspondent. Her work has taken her to 40 international locations, together with Ukraine, Russia, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, and Afghanistan. She is a recipient of the 2024 Knight-Wallace Fellowship for Journalism. Lachter may be adopted on X @efratlachter.