As Trump fails to sanction Moscow, few count on breakthrough throughout upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks

[ad_1] As Ukraine and Russia put together for peace talks scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, few observers count on a breakthrough.

Whereas the U.S. and Ukraine have pushed for an unconditional ceasefire , the Kremlin has rejected it.

As an alternative, Moscow has repeatedly voiced maximalist demands which can be unlikely to be accepted by Kyiv, resembling recognition of Russia's unlawful annexation of Ukrainian areas and withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the elements of those areas remaining below Kyiv’s management.

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed frustration with Russia's reluctance to make concessions and its intensifying and lethal assaults on Ukraine. Nevertheless, he has thus far refused to sanction Russia.

Jenny Mathers, a lecturer in worldwide politics on the U.Okay.'s Aberystwyth College, mentioned that "(Russian President Vladimir) Putin is clearly engaged in a balancing act between making gestures in direction of peace to maintain Trump quiet with out making any compromises or really making an attempt to make sure that the peace talks make any actual progress."

"There are not any indicators that Russia is prepared to contemplate making any concessions, and each signal that Russia intends to maintain pushing forward on the battlefield to attempt to take management of as a lot Ukrainian territory as potential," she informed the Kyiv Unbiased.

‘Trump doesn’t know how to deal with gangsters’ — US lets Ukraine down, once again

In what is now a semi-regular occurrence, the workings of U.S.-led global diplomacy has cast a dark shadow over Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on May 19 in the latest attempt to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine. The call came

No breakthrough in the course of the first spherical Throughout the first spherical of talks in Istanbul on Might 16, the 2 sides failed to achieve settlement on a 30-day ceasefire. The one concrete results of the Istanbul talks was a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap accomplished on Might 25 — the most important prisoner change in the course of the battle.

Ukraine despatched a delegation headed by Protection Minister Rustem Umerov to Istanbul, whereas Russia despatched a low-level delegation led by Putin's aide Vladimir Medinsky.

Putin didn't attend the Istanbul peace talks, regardless of an invite from President Volodymyr Zelensky to fulfill him face-to-face.

"The talks did yield a fairly sizable change of prisoners," Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow on the Council on International Relations, informed the Kyiv Unbiased. "However the glass was extra half empty than half full. Putin refused to ship a high-level delegation and seemingly little progress was made on the important thing situation — attaining a ceasefire and sturdy settlement."

Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky speaks to reporters with different members of a Russian delegation forward of a deliberate assembly between Ukrainian and Russian delegates on Might 15, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey. (Burak Kara/Getty Photographs) Peter Tough, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, additionally argued that the primary spherical "didn’t produce a strategic breakthrough and is extra fascinating procedurally in that it put Russian and Ukrainian negotiators face-to-face."

"Russia was simply going by means of the motions of talks — exhibiting up and issuing a set of calls for earlier than going house," Mathers mentioned. "It was placing that the group for the talks with Ukraine was composed of extra junior individuals than the group despatched for talks with the U.S. weeks earlier — this was virtually definitely a calculated insult to the Ukrainians."

‘There we go again’ — For war-weary Europe, Trump-Putin call yet another signal to ‘wake up’

After a two-hour call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia reiterated its refusal for a full ceasefire in the war in Ukraine while the U.S. once again failed to respond with any significant pressure. For observers across Europe, watching the way the negotiations

Russia dragging its toes on the memo Protection Minister Rustem Umerov mentioned on Might 28 that Ukraine had submitted its memorandum on proposed ceasefire phrases to Russia.

Ukraine’s proposed memorandum to Russia contains provisions for a ceasefire on land, within the air, and at sea, to be monitored by worldwide companions, The New York Occasions (NYT) reported on Might 30, citing an unnamed senior Ukrainian official.

Throughout the Istanbul talks, Russia additionally promised to submit a memorandum outlining its ceasefire situations to Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Kremlin has been dragging its toes on presenting the doc.

Russian International Minister Sergey Lavrov introduced on Might 23 that Moscow would current the memorandum instantly after the completion of the prisoner change between the 2 nations. Nevertheless, the memo was not submitted after the change was accomplished on Might 25.

Lavrov introduced on Might 28 that the Russian memorandum could be unveiled in the course of the subsequent spherical of negotiations set for June 2 in Istanbul.

"Russia is dragging its toes for 2 causes," Kupchan mentioned. "First, Russia has been advancing on the battlefield, which inspires the Kremlin to maintain the battle going. Second, Putin has not but given up on his maximalist battle goals and seeks to subjugate as a lot of Ukraine as potential. He'll cease solely when Ukraine has the army wherewithal to cease him, which is why Europe and the USA have to maintain the arms flowing."

In the meantime, Stefan Wolff, professor of worldwide safety on the College of Birmingham, argued that Russia needs "to restrict the time that Ukraine has to contemplate the Russian calls for and focus on them with their allies in Europe and the U.S."

"Dragging out the negotiations course of buys Russia time for additional advances on the battlefield and bettering and shoring up their place forward of a ceasefire settlement that may more than likely freeze the entrance traces," he added.

Bracing for more Russian attacks, an anxious Ukraine waits for Trump to do… something

After an unprecedented three-day wave of Russian aerial attacks in Ukraine over the weekend, the world is once again looking to U.S. President Donald Trump to take his first steps toward forcing Moscow to end its violence. From May 24 to 26, Russian forces fired more than 600 drones

Russia's maximalist calls for Throughout the talks, Russia has persistently caught to its maximalist calls for and refused to make concessions.

Putin said in March that Russia would conform to a ceasefire provided that there was a ban on Ukrainian mobilization and coaching of troops and a halt on Western military aid for Kyiv. Specialists argue that these situations are tantamount to calls for for Ukraine's give up.

Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's envoy to the United Nations, reiterated the calls for on Might 30, saying that Russia would solely think about a ceasefire if Kyiv stopped receiving Western weapons and halted mobilization.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks on the Kremlin throughout an annual assembly of the supervisory board of the Senezh Training Heart 'Russia is a rustic of potentialities' on Might 27, 2025 in Moscow, Russia. (Contributor/Getty Photographs) Throughout the Istanbul talks, Russia additionally demanded that Ukraine acknowledge the illegally annexed territories as Russian, withdraw from the Kyiv-controlled elements of those areas, and undertake a impartial standing, in line with a supply within the President’s Workplace who spoke with the Kyiv Unbiased on situation of anonymity.

Russia illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in 2014. The Kremlin additionally introduced the unlawful annexation of Ukraine's Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts in 2022 regardless of solely partially controlling them.

Reuters reported on Might 28, citing its sources, that Putin was demanding a written pledge by NATO to not settle for extra Japanese European members and the lifting of a number of sanctions as situations for ending Russia's battle in Ukraine.

‘Conditions for Ukraine’s surrender’ — Why Putin’s demands for ceasefire make no sense

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conditions for a ceasefire are unrealistic and tantamount to demanding that Ukraine disarm itself and surrender, analysts say. Putin said on March 13 that Russia was ready to agree to the U.S.-backed 30-day-long ceasefire in Ukraine but then followed by listing a number of

Trump pissed off however fails to behave As Russia remained intransigent, Trump has continued his normal rhetoric, alternating between reward for Putin and frustration with Russia's actions.

Throughout a phone call with Trump on Might 19, Putin once more rejected an unconditional ceasefire. Regardless of this, Trump mentioned the decision "went very nicely" and as soon as once more refused to impose sanctions towards Russia.

In latest weeks, Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration with Russia.

A few of Trump's essential statements adopted huge Russian drone and missile strikes from Might 24 to Might 26 — certainly one of Russia's largest and deadliest aerial assaults in the course of the battle.

On Might 25, Trump mentioned that Putin had gone "completely" loopy and warned that if he didn’t cease his actions, it may carry concerning the collapse of Russia.

On the similar time, Trump additionally lashed out at Zelensky, saying that he "is doing his nation no favors by speaking the way in which he does" — an obvious reference to Zelensky's criticism of Russia and of Washington's failure to crack down on Putin.

On Might 27, Trump additionally admitted that "if it weren't for me, plenty of actually unhealthy issues would have already occurred to Russia.”

Trump has additionally repeatedly threatened to impose sanctions on Russia however no motion adopted.

The U.S. Senate is contemplating a invoice that may impose 500% tariffs on imports from nations buying Russian oil, gasoline, uranium, and different merchandise.

The Senate is expected to "start moving" the invoice subsequent week, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham mentioned on Might 30.

Nevertheless, it's nonetheless unclear if Trump will again the invoice.

"Trump seems to be getting pissed off with Putin and could also be arriving on the conclusion that Putin is enjoying for time reasonably than working with Trump to finish the battle," Kupchan mentioned. "The large Russian air assaults that maintain coming reinforce the view that Russia isn't negotiating in good religion."

On the similar time, there isn't any indication that Trump's threats will result in any motion.

"One of many constants in Trump's habits has been his tendency to be sympathetic to Russia's positions and arguments and to treat Putin with respect," Mathers mentioned. "Regardless of transient expressions of frustration and irritation, Trump all the time appears to return to his default setting of discovering Russia's arguments persuasive and being desirous to eliminate obstacles to doing enterprise with and in Russia."

Wolff additionally argued that "for Trump, a take care of Russia, any deal, is actually necessary."

"An excessive amount of stress on Putin, in Trump’s thoughts, might be counter-productive to get a deal executed," he added. "Against this, stress on Ukraine looks as if a neater choice, together with as a result of the U.S. has, or not less than thinks it has, extra leverage over Kyiv."

As Russia refuses to accept ceasefire, will Trump pressure Moscow?

Three weeks ago, Ukraine and the U.S. agreed to implement a full 30-day ceasefire. Russia declined to do so, issuing a list of demands instead. On April 4, Russia hit a residential neighborhood in the city of Kryvyi Rih with ballistic missiles and drones, killing 19 people, including nine

Any hope for the longer term? As Trump stays reluctant to punish Russia, the Kremlin seems to don't have any incentives to conform to a ceasefire.

Analysts are skeptical about the potential of a breakthrough in the course of the second round of talks .

"Russia doesn't but appear ready to make the concessions and compromises wanted to get a ceasefire," Kupchan mentioned. "There are as but no indicators that Putin is negotiating in good religion and making a honest effort to finish the battle."

Michael O'Hanlon, director of analysis within the International Coverage program on the Brookings Establishment, mentioned that "we might want to flip up the stress on Putin in a number of methods for talks to have any actual probability of success."

"I don’t count on a lot from June 2," he added. "President Trump is studying that Putin is the issue however hasn’t totally accepted or internalized that reality but."

Analysts agree that the principle drawback is Trump’s failure to understand that sanctions could be the one real looking strategy to push the Kremlin in direction of a ceasefire.

“Putin appears to consider that point is on Russia's facet and that Trump won't impose critical constraints on Russia, so Russia is free to demand preconditions that make a ceasefire not possible,” Richard Betts, professor emeritus of battle and peace research at Columbia College, informed the Kyiv Unbiased.

“This may change if Russia suffers some defeats on the battlefield, or political assist for Putin inside Russia drops, however there isn't any proof but that both of these situations is more likely to happen quickly.”

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Reports that the U.S. could formally give de jure recognition to Russia’s control over Crimea have landed like a bombshell in Kyiv.

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