Endgame alerts on Iran – POLITICO

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By GERARDO FORTUNA

CIAO THERE. It’s Gerardo Fortuna again with you this Thursday morning, having had a crash Playbooking masterclass yesterday from a legend of the genre …

DRIVING THE DAY       

WHAT’S ALL THE FAC ABOUT? European Union international ministers meet in Brussels at present for a packed International Affairs Council, with a significant potential breakthrough on Iran in attain — together with a push to cease former Russian troopers who’ve fought in Ukraine from coming into the bloc.

The international ministers will deal with three stay areas: Ukraine, together with the most recent readouts on peace talks … the Center East, with Iran, Gaza and Syria all in play … and the African Nice Lakes, following the renewed offensive within the Democratic Republic of the Congo by the M23 paramilitary group.

Past stock-taking: Throughout the board, at present’s agenda reveals an EU making an attempt to maneuver past mid-game disaster administration and towards one thing nearer to strategic endgame planning on a number of long-running recordsdata.

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Revolutionary breakthrough: As Playbook reported yesterday, EU members seem near an settlement on itemizing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group, after France dropped its opposition to the transfer. All the background you need is on this story by Gabriel Gavin, Zoya Sheftalovich and Tim Ross. 

If agreed, the IRGC itemizing would quantity to a outstanding and, till lately, unlikely shift. It nonetheless requires unanimity, however the temper on the town suggests no member nation is predicted to dam consensus. 

What would change: The IRGC itemizing would set off asset freezes and journey bans, inserting the group alongside al Qaeda and Islamic State — successfully shutting down Tehran’s final remaining channel with the EU. 

Ship the message: Forward of the FAC, Dutch International Minister David van Weel informed POLITICO’s Tim Ross it was time for Europe to ship a “sturdy sign” after the regime’s crackdown on peaceable protests. Itemizing members of the Pasdaran, because the IRGC is informally identified, as terrorists “has been one thing that’s been on my want listing for fairly a while,” van Weel mentioned. 

“I do assume that the regime has crossed one other line now — and an enormous line — with these atrocities now we have seen occurring throughout the protests. So, hopefully, we’ll see some motion there,” the international minister mentioned.

Washington context: The talks come as U.S. President Donald Trump steps up stress on Iran with fresh military posturing within the area, elevating the prospect of EU coordination with Washington. A POLITICO poll shows round half of Trump voters are in favor of a navy intervention in Iran — the best stage of assist for any international goal. 

RUSSIAN VETERANS: Additionally on the desk at FAC is a brand new push led by Estonia to make sure that former Russian troopers who fought in Ukraine are barred from coming into the EU. The worry is that an eventual peace deal might result in hundreds of hardened ex-fighters, many with felony backgrounds, crossing the border. 
 
Massive numbers: “[After] 4 years of combating, we’re speaking about even one million or so folks — actually a whole lot of hundreds — who’re proper now nonetheless combating,” a senior Estonian diplomat informed my fellow Playbookers Nick Vinocur and Gabriel Gavin. “These are massive numbers. However what occurs once they need to come to the Schengen [Area]?” 

Crime wave: Violent offenses in Russia are skyrocketing, Tallinn warns, with demobilized troopers — some launched after serving in jail battalions — coming back from the entrance strains. “One strategy to mitigate the danger is to place as many of those people which are confirmed to have been combating within the battle in opposition to Ukraine [onto] the Schengen blacklist,” the diplomat mentioned.

The issue is that present techniques to establish and ban people are too sluggish and too depending on particular person EU international locations, the diplomat mentioned.

Actuality verify: Whereas EU international locations are “morally” on board with Estonia’s push, in response to one EU diplomat, implementing the ban can be troublesome for a lot of of them. Estonia has the authorized capability to impose a blanket ban whereas different international locations would wish to listing the fighters individually and compile the proof underpinning the choice. 

MIGRATION VISION       

WAIT, WHAT DAY IS IT? Solely 5 Faculty conferences have taken place on a Thursday throughout Ursula von der Leyen’s tenure as Fee president (I confirmed this with a little help from a pleasant Berlaymont archivist, after I put the call out in a previous edition). In the present day’s assembly is much more uncommon: an early begin (9 a.m.) and only one merchandise on the agenda. 

A imaginative and prescient for migration: The Fee will approve two methods: one on asylum and migration administration, the opposite on visas. There’s no laws concerned, however fairly an try and consolidate the Fee’s imaginative and prescient for migration coverage, which is notably firmer at present than it was 5 and even 10 years in the past. 

Migration technique, decoded: Playbook has seen the outlines and might affirm the technique rests on 5 pillars: migration diplomacy (complete partnerships with third international locations) … sturdy EU borders (a problem for Frontex in addition to ETIAS and the Entry/Exit System) … the implementation of the migration pact (coming into power this summer season) … returns (learn: deportations) … and expertise mobility (luring migrants the EU desires). 

The shift: “Openness requires order; it should be Europe that decides who has the best to construct a life right here,” Fee Government Vice President Henna Virkkunen informed Playbook forward of the methods’ adoption. 

What’s new/what isn’t: Count on loads of back-slapping over the drop within the variety of arrivals, however few genuinely new initiatives. That is about setting path, not launching laws, with a lot of the heavy lifting both already carried out or below negotiation. The political message, nonetheless, is evident: firmness with out veering into Trump territory, with repeated nods to European values and protections for these in want. 

Put it on visa: As Playbook reported earlier this week, the visa technique brazenly recasts the granting of visas as a central foreign-policy lever — a development already seen within the tightening of rules for Russians. “Our visa coverage is a strong instrument — and it should serve our pursuits,” Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner informed Playbook. “Visa-free journey to the EU is a privilege. It comes with clear tasks that this technique units out.”

In apply: Third international locations shall be assessed in opposition to new goal standards, together with low visa-refusal charges and excessive return charges. The place obligations should not met, visa-free journey might be suspended. “For international locations whose residents require visas, we’ll strengthen our leverage by linking visa situations extra intently to cooperation on readmission, border safety, safety and the combat in opposition to unlawful migration,” Brunner mentioned. 

DEMOCRACY SHIELD       

DISINFORMATION PROTECTION: The Fee’s long-gestating plan to insulate the EU from international interference and disinformation — the not-so-creatively named Democracy Protect — is lastly exhibiting a pulse, with key milestones scheduled for at present. MEPs kick issues off at 9 a.m. with the presentation of suggestions from Parliament’s particular committee, our tech reporter Eliza Gkritsi writes in to say. 

Ought to Massive Tech pay? As we scooped final week, Parliament’s key calls for — drafted by Swedish center-right MEP Tomas Tobé — embrace a name for the Fee to evaluate whether or not main tech platforms might be made to contribute financially to the EU’s combat in opposition to international data manipulation. 

Refresher: Teed up by Ursula von der Leyen on the 2024 Copenhagen Democracy Summit, the initiative is Brussels’ reply to hybrid threats and coordinated data campaigns focusing on European democracies.  The proposal eventually landed final November, following repeated delays and sustained criticism — particularly from Parliament — over its lack of ambition and perceived deference to U.S. pondering. 

The weak spots: MEPs are zeroing in on the proposal’s flagship enforcement instrument: the deliberate Centre for Democratic Resilience. Tobé’s report is blunt: The middle “lacks adequate operational element, clear budgetary allocations, a selected governance construction, a concrete mandate and a timeline.” Is that every one?

Nonetheless large open: Initially requested by the Parliament as an unbiased company, the middle has been downgraded within the Fee’s proposal to a voluntary coordination hub. Most tellingly, the EU govt has but to say who would really run it.

That silence has fueled an inside turf battle over management of the middle, pitting DG COMM — seen as near, and successfully below the sway of, the Fee president — in opposition to different components of the chief. 

First take a look at: The representatives of member international locations are additionally in Brussels at present for the middle’s first “high-level technical assembly,” geared toward resolving among the open questions. “These discussions are a chance to outline the middle’s mission, scope and sensible functioning,” Democracy Commissioner Michael McGrath mentioned in written feedback to Playbook. 

Exterior the (empty) field: Attendance on the assembly might supply some clues as to which division is successful the turf battle. Officers from DG JUST and DG COMM shall be within the room, in response to two EU officers. DG CONNECT, notably, received’t be current and seems to be out of the race altogether. Frustration is mounting: “We’re on the level the place it now not issues who’s in cost — it’s an empty field,” a parliamentary official informed Playbook. 

Mark your calendars: In the present day’s talks are supposed to pave the best way for a ministerial assembly on Feb. 24, when McGrath says he expects to formally launch the middle with member international locations. 

Dialing it in: McGrath is sending his feedback from Colombia, after stops in Brazil earlier this week, the place democratic resilience — together with election integrity and countering international interference and disinformation — is excessive on the agenda of his conferences.

HELLO, MR. PRESIDENT OF EUROPE       

ONE CHAIR TO RULE THEM ALL: European Folks’s Occasion (EPP) boss Manfred Weber thinks the EU has an apparent downside: too many presidents! His repair: fuse the roles of Fee president and European Council president, so the EU can communicate with one voice on the world stage. 

What about treaties? No have to reopen them, Weber argued at a enterprise occasion in Brussels on Wednesday. Simply appoint the identical individual to each jobs.

Not so quick: “The Treaties don’t enable, of their present kind, for a similar individual to occupy the positions of president of the European Council and president of the European Fee,” a Council official informed Playbook. 

Fee view: Unknown. Paula Pinho, spokesperson for the EU establishment that’s the guardian of the treaties, opted to not remark. 

“It’s not a brand new proposal, actually — he’s been saying this for ages,” a sharp-witted EU official famous, prompting the plain query of whether or not Weber floated the thought already again when he was working because the EPP’s Spitzenkandidat in 2019. 

Is he … making use of? “I don’t need to reply,” Weber mentioned when requested by POLITICO whether or not he would think about a future “EU president” function.  

Perhaps a candidate? Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, driving a political surge at dwelling — helped, in no small part, by Donald Trump. Enjoyable reality: I once asked a diplomat whether or not Frederiksen might need wished António Costa’s job as European Council president. The joking reply was: Perhaps she desires von der Leyen’s as an alternative. So — why not each? 

Keep in mind Sofagate? The European Council presidency is a comparatively latest invention, created by the 2009 Treaty of Lisbon to deliver continuity to leaders’ summits beforehand run on a rotating foundation — very like at present’s rotating presidencies for ministerials. It has labored (largely) but in addition entrenched overlap with the Fee presidency, particularly on exterior illustration. 

PARLIAMENT CORNER       

SOCIALISTS EYE GAMBLING LEVY: The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) grouping within the European Parliament is getting ready an modification to a report on “personal assets” — income streams that fund the EU — for the bloc’s subsequent long-term price range. The socialists are pushing for a brand new EU income stream primarily based on a harmonized levy on online-gambling and betting companies, POLITICO’s Max Griera studies. 

The pitch: The thought is to kill a number of birds with one tax: strengthen the EU’s income base, curb unlawful and black-market playing and scale back regulatory fragmentation throughout the only market’s digital companies. 

A secure guess: Victor Negrescu, the socialist lawmaker behind the push, argues the thought sidesteps the same old political landmines round EU taxation. “It doesn’t tax residents instantly, it targets a genuinely cross-border digital exercise and it addresses issues that member states already acknowledge they can not resolve alone,” he informed POLITICO. 

Studying from previous failures: In contrast to earlier own-resources proposals that stalled over fiscal sovereignty issues, Negrescu says this levy builds on an present market actuality and gives clear added worth: a good contribution from on-line operators, more durable motion in opposition to the black market and recent funding for shared EU priorities. 

Trade not hostile: Some within the sector — which generated greater than €130 billion in internet turnover in 2022 and employs round 370,000 folks throughout the EU — are on board. Dan Ghita, president of the Romanian betting affiliation Rombet, informed POLITICO’s Mari Eccles he would again a levy — supplied the cash funds an EU-level physique capable of share data on black-market operators. 

Tooth matter: Such a physique might have a “very massive influence” on unlawful playing, Ghita argued, if it have been empowered to behave in opposition to rogue corporations — gathering taxes and figuring out the folks behind them. 

CIAO, DECARO: Wednesday was Antonio Decaro’s final day as chair of the Parliament’s Atmosphere Committee (ENVI). The Italian socialist will return to Italy because the president of the Apulia area, after having received the elections final yr.

Adriatic coast … Brussels … what a alternative! Since MEPs should not allowed to additionally maintain political positions nationally, the lawmaker had till Feb. 7 to determine whether or not to tackle his new function or proceed in his parliamentary function. One Parliament official described him as “very clear from the beginning,” including that “everybody knew that if he was elected, he would return to Italy.” 

Avanti un altro: The brand new ENVI chair should nonetheless be an Italian socialist, to respect the power-grabbing political agreement struck between the totally different teams of the European Parliament after the 2024 European elections, when the S&D secured the highest ENVI job. 

Prime names: Pierfrancesco Maran, at present a member of the Inside Market Committee, is the frontrunner, two Parliament officers informed my colleagues Max Griera and Marianne Gros. Trailing behind are Dario Nardella, an MEP on the Agriculture Committee, and Annalisa Corrado, the opposite Partito Democratico MEP at present on ENVI. The previous is seen extra favorably by the center-right EPP; the latter decidedly much less so, a socialist parliament official informed Playbook. 

TRUMP-PROOFING THE EU-U.S. DEAL: The European Parliament’s three largest political teams are discussing new safeguards in opposition to the unpredictability of Donald Trump — together with situations through which he may once more rattle the Greenland cage — in an effort to interrupt the impasse over approving the EU-U.S. commerce deal. That’s according to two lawmakers and three officials conversant in the talks who spoke with Max Griera.

THE EU’S BIG SIX       

EUROPE’S NEWEST CLUB? A newly-convened group of the EU’s richest nations kicked off its first assembly Wednesday, with finance ministers of Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland dialing right into a name on find out how to rev up the continent’s sluggish economic system. 

Enter the Massive Six: The format, dubbed the “Massive Six,” was arrange after Trump-linked market shocks and amid sluggish general development. It’s also being eyed as a car to revive an outdated Brussels traditional: a two-speed Europe. 

What was on the agenda? “We have been discussing the necessity to enhance the competitiveness of EU,” Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domański informed Playbook’s Gabriel Gavin. “We have been discussing protection … the Financial savings and Funding Union, the only market additionally, to some extent.” Whether or not the format results in particular stress on the Fee from like-minded capitals stays to be seen.  

An invitation to the unique group is an enormous win for Warsaw. In response to Domański, inclusion within the format is simply the most recent in a string of strikes — together with attending the G20 — that reveals Poland’s development means it’s changing into a significant power to be reckoned with alongside the normal powerhouses of France, Germany and Italy. 

On the best path: “Many international locations, they might not say it loudly, however they’re pondering ‘they do one thing proper in Poland,” he went on. 

IN OTHER NEWS       

AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINE: The Czech-led ammunition initiative for Ukraine is transferring forward, Czech International Minister Petr Macinka informed a small group of reporters, together with POLITICO’s Jacopo Barigazzi.

“The munitions initiative retains working” regardless of Prague’s price range constraints, Macinka mentioned, which means the Czech Republic “will not be capable of put any cash into it.” The dearth of Czech monetary participation will not be an issue, he insisted: “Ninety-nine % of the story is working the ammunition initiative. One % is the contribution.”

CHANGE AT PSC: Delphine Pronk, the present chair of the Political and Safety Committee, the Council physique made from ambassadors coping with protection and safety, has been appointed because the managing director for Americas for the EU diplomatic physique, the Exterior Motion Service. (Pronk can also be the spouse of Dutch EU ambassador Pieter Jan Kleiweg de Zwaan, if you happen to hold observe of Brussels’ power couples.)

Denmark steps in (it’s not what you assume): Pronk is changed by Lene Mandel Vensild, the present PSC ambassador who additionally labored as head of worldwide division within the Danish prime minister’s workplace. It’s an enormous step, as till lately Denmark had an opt-out on protection. The appointment has been within the pipeline for some time and isn’t associated to Greenland, officers say.

AGENDA       

— The Faculty of Commissioners meets in Brussels. 

— International Affairs Council (FAC) begins at 10:30 a.m., with an agenda together with Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine, human rights, state of affairs within the Center East (Syria and Iran), and the state of affairs within the African Nice Lakes area; the FAC will maintain a press convention at 5 p.m. 

— Fee President Ursula von der Leyen receives members of the Standing Committee on International Affairs and Defence of the Norwegian Parliament. 

— European Council President António Costa is visiting Vietnam, with a press assertion anticipated at 11:05 a.m. 

— EIB annual press convention at 8 a.m. in Brussels. 

— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola has an viewers with Pope Leo XIV at 9:30 a.m. in Rome. 

— Metsola additionally meets Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at 3:30 p.m. in Rome. 

— German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė to debate bilateral relations, regional safety and NATO cooperation. 

BRUSSELS CORNER       

WEATHER: Largely cloudy with a excessive of 5C. 

NEW GENERATION TRIES WHERE OTHERS HAVE FAILED: With talks to kind a Brussels’ regional authorities at a impasse almost 600 days after the election, Brussels’ youngest politicians have determined to take issues into their very own arms. The youth wings of the centrist CD&V and Les Engagés events have invited their younger Brussels counterparts for talks on Friday in a brand new try and reboot makes an attempt to kind a authorities. 

The thought? Events’ youth wings can keep away from celebration politics and profession politicians, Mathilde Vermeire, a Brussels (metropolis) councilor and a member of CD&V informed Hanne Cokelaere. “These are individuals who usually entered politics lower than two years in the past with the real thought to enhance Brussels … not eager about how this may profit or hurt the political celebration in 4 years’ time,” she mentioned. 

The logistics: They’re assembly Friday at noon  — simply hours earlier than a deliberate protest focusing on the failed talks — with hopes of discovering widespread floor, possibly even a shortlist of priorities or options to points that scuttled previous makes an attempt. 

Why it issues: Brussels is grappling with soiled streets, in addition to safety and employment points. However Brussels’ and Belgium’s competitiveness and fame because the seat of the EU additionally grasp within the stability, Vermeire argued. “How can our prime minister, or any minister for that matter … defend Belgium on a global stage, if we are able to’t even get Brussels so as?” 

Bump within the highway: Each celebration that was, at one level, concerned in an try and kind a authorities was anticipated to attend, Vermeire mentioned. That’s, till La Libre reported that the younger French-speaking socialists had walked again their RSVP. 

A royal warning: Even Belgium’s king — additionally a Brussels resident — has misplaced his endurance. Throughout an tackle Wednesday, King Philippe fumed that the capital area’s authorities formation had “gotten stranded in an irresponsible logic,” airing issues concerning the “dire penalties of this deadlock for the area, its inhabitants and our establishments,” in response to a BRUZZ report. 

EU AID FOR BRUSSELS’ AUDI WORKERS: Members of the European Parliament on Wednesday signed off on €7.5 million in EU funding for the hundreds of employees who misplaced their job after Audi closed its plant in Forest final yr. The cash shall be put towards profession steerage, coaching and assist to begin a brand new enterprise. 

BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Birgit Sippel and Herve Juvin; former MEP Sylwia Spurek; NOS journalist Bert van Slooten; Leena Brandt, the previous press officer on the Finnish perm rep in Brussels; former Deputy Prime Minister of Luxembourg Etienne Schneider, a POLITICO 28 alum; author Kim Ghattas; the Economist’s Stanley Pignal.

THANKS TO: Jakob Weizman, Playbook editors Alex Spence and James Panichi, reporter Milena Wälde and producers Dean Southwell and Hugh Kapernaros.

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