Introduction: France’s economic system avoids recession with return to development
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of enterprise, the monetary markets and the world economic system.
It’s an enormous day for GDP knowledge, as development figures from throughout the Eurozone – after which North America – are launched by means of the day.
They’ll give us an perception into how the world economic system fared within the first quarter of this yr, a time dominated by Donald Trump’s second presidency, and the commerce conflict that despatched ripples across the globe.
And France has acquired us up and working, with new knowledge displaying that its economic system has averted falling into recession.
French GDP rose by 0.1% in January-March, statistics physique INSEE stories. That follows a 0.1% contraction in October-December 2024, and means France has averted shrinking for 2 quarters in a row (a technical recession).
However, such development as there was got here from an increase in inventories, as corporations stocked up – maybe in preparation for brand new tariffs. That added 0.5% to French GDP.
INSEE stories that remaining home demand and family consumption each stalled.
Funding, or “gross fastened capital formation”, shrank by 0.2%.
International commerce stored contributing negatively to GDP development within the first quarter (-0.4 factors after -0.1 factors): exports fell sharply this quarter (-0.7% after +0.2%), whereas imports rose once more (+0.4% after +0.5%).
France GDP Development Fee QoQ Prel was reported at 0.1% in Q1 from -0.1% within the earlier interval. It was anticipated at 0.2%.
France’s GDP development returns to constructive territory however falls in need of expectations, indicating a modest restoration. Potential downward strain on the euro, however…
— Bleeding Edge Macro (@BEMacroPublic) April 30, 2025
We’ll hear from Germany, Italy, and the complete eurozone this morning.
This afternoon, buyers will likely be bracing for the most recent US GDP report which is able to present how America’s economic system fared beneath Donald Trump, as recession fears rise….
The agenda
6.30am BST: France’s GDP report for Q1 2014
7am BST: Nationwide’s UK home value index for April
9am BST: Germany’s GDP report for Q1 2024
9am BST: Italy’s GDP report for Q1 2024
10am BST: Eurozone GDP report for Q1 2024
12pm BST: Mexico’s GDP report for Q1 2024
1.30pm BST: US GDP report for Q1 2024
1.30pm BST: Canada’s GDP report for February
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Key occasions
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