Greenland summit at White Home may form way forward for the Arctic

[ad_1] Katya Adler Europe editor, reporting from Nuuk, Greenland

Watch: What message do Greenlanders wish to ship to Trump?

It is crunch time. The US Vice-President, JD Vance, is internet hosting the Danish and Greenlandic overseas ministers, in addition to their US counterpart, Marco Rubio, within the White Home on Wednesday.

The main target of the talks: the way forward for the world's greatest island, Greenland.

There's a giant digital information ticker tape working above the snow-covered shopping center within the island's capital, Nuuk. You do not have to talk Greenlandic to grasp the phrases "Trump", "Greenland" and "sovereignty" that seem over and over, in stark purple letters.

Donald Trump says he needs this territory and he'll take it "the straightforward manner or the laborious manner". After his latest controversial army motion in Venezuela, individuals in Greenland are taking him at his phrase.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ebd3/live/1ffd51a0-f0fe-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ebd3/live/1ffd51a0-f0fe-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ebd3/live/1ffd51a0-f0fe-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ebd3/live/1ffd51a0-f0fe-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ebd3/live/1ffd51a0-f0fe-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ebd3/live/1ffd51a0-f0fe-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ebd3/live/1ffd51a0-f0fe-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ebd3/live/1ffd51a0-f0fe-11f0-b385-5f48925de19a.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Reuters US Vice President JD Vance and Second Lady Usha Vance tour the US military's Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, wearing large coats." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Reuters JD and Usha Vance toured a US army base in Greenland in March, 2025.

The anxious countdown to the Washington assembly has been occurring for days.

Passers-by inform me it seems like years.

"I wish to encourage (Donald Trump) to make use of each his ears correctly, to pay attention extra and to talk much less. We're not on the market. Our nation will not be on the market," Amelie Zeeb stated, eradicating her chunky mittens, historically made right here with sealskin and often called pualuuk, in an effort to wave her fingers for emphasis.

"My hope is for our nation to be unbiased and well-managed and never be purchased," stated Inuit author and musician, Sivnîssoq Rask.

Whereas Maria, together with her seven-week-old child, wrapped snugly inside her winter coat, informed me, "I fear for the way forward for my younger household. We do not need all this consideration right here!"

However worldwide consideration on Greenland will not be going to vanish anytime quickly.

Much more hangs within the steadiness than the destiny of this island alone.

The tussle over Greenland pits Nato nations Denmark and the US towards each other.

Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. The Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that if the US takes management of the island by power, that would be the finish of the transatlantic defence alliance that Europe has relied on for safety for many years.

It is going to even be one other damaging blow to US-European relations, already badly bruised since Donald Trump's return to the White Home. And keep in mind: Europe's leaders are determined to maintain the Trump administration onside, to again a sustainable peace deal for Ukraine too.

The potential ramifications of a fallout over Greenland are large – however it's unclear how Washington intends to deal with Wednesday's assembly. Will the spirit be one in every of compromise or confrontation?

President Trump insists he wants Greenland for nationwide safety. If the US does not take Greenland, then China or Russia will, he says.

Aware of this, main European powers, which have vocally supported Danish sovereignty over Greenland, have additionally been scrambling to give you army proposals to spice up Nato's presence across the island and within the Arctic extra broadly.

The UK and Germany have taken the lead right here, I am informed, though France on Wednesday introduced it could be opening a consulate in Greenland early subsequent month. French Overseas Minister Jean-Noël Barrot described it as "a political sign" to be extra current in Greenland, "this territory of the Kingdom of Denmark".

"We share the US issues that this a part of Denmark wants higher safety," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated on Monday. " We merely wish to enhance Greenland's safety scenario collectively."

The chairman of the German Reservists Affiliation, Patrick Sensburg, has known as for a minimum of one European brigade to be stationed in Greenland as quickly as doable. He harassed that Germany would "bear particular duty within the endeavor", and identified that the German military would acquire strategic benefits by coaching troopers within the difficult Arctic circumstances.

The British authorities can be in talks with European allies concerning the doable deployment of army forces to Greenland, notably in response to perceived threats from Russia and China.

What has Nato urged by way of safety within the Arctic?

Talks are at a preliminary stage. Troop numbers haven't been outlined however the discussions already embody the doable deployment of troopers, warships, plane, submarines and anti-drone capabilities within the area.

One concrete suggestion is to kind a maritime Nato "Arctic Sentry", mirroring the "Baltic Sentry" arrange by alliance within the Baltic Sea after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The seabed of each the Baltic and the Arctic are busy with underwater infrastructure, similar to vitality pipelines and web cables, important for communications and billions of {dollars} price of economic transactions each day. All weak to hybrid assault.

"Much more could be accomplished within the Arctic," Oana Lungescu informed me. Till 2023 she was Nato's longest-serving Nato spokesperson. She's now a Distinguished Fellow with the defence and safety think-tank RUSI.

"I do not envisage that the UK or Germany will ship a major variety of troops to Greenland, however they may maintain extra workout routines within the area or increase current ones. The UK and different Nato allies have already began deploying maritime belongings for a giant biannual Norwegian-led train within the Excessive North, known as Chilly Response. The Arctic grew to become a strategic precedence for Nato after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However extra must be accomplished."

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/eaac/live/e4c91d30-f0f3-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/eaac/live/e4c91d30-f0f3-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/eaac/live/e4c91d30-f0f3-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/eaac/live/e4c91d30-f0f3-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/eaac/live/e4c91d30-f0f3-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/eaac/live/e4c91d30-f0f3-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/eaac/live/e4c91d30-f0f3-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/eaac/live/e4c91d30-f0f3-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="A map of Greenland in relation to Denmark and the US." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Greenland sits between the US and Canada on one aspect and Russia and Europe on the opposite.

Washington first obtained an actual style of Greenland's strategic worth in the course of the Second World Battle. The US occupied the island to cease it being taken by Nazi Germany after its invasion of Denmark. The US tried to purchase Greenland after the battle however Copenhagen refused. Not lengthy after, the 2 nations grew to become founding members of Nato and in 1951 they signed a defence settlement, nonetheless legitimate right this moment, permitting the US to maintain its army bases on Greenland and to deliver as many troops to the island because it wished.

Greenland is on the shortest route between continental US and Russia, which makes it key for missile defence. After the autumn of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US enormously decreased its presence right here, retaining just one army base - Pituffik Area Base - one in every of Washington's most necessary radar stations.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/0ef3/live/02cce890-f101-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/0ef3/live/02cce890-f101-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0ef3/live/02cce890-f101-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/0ef3/live/02cce890-f101-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/0ef3/live/02cce890-f101-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/0ef3/live/02cce890-f101-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/0ef3/live/02cce890-f101-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/0ef3/live/02cce890-f101-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters Exterior shot of the US military Pituffik military base in Greenland " class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Reuters US army's Pituffik Area Base in Greenland

The shoreline right here is especially necessary. There's a maritime choke-point within the waters between Greenland, Iceland and the UK - the so-called GIUK hole - that is seen as essential to control Russian and Chinese language ships, and particularly submarines transferring between the Arctic and Atlantic.

The US had requested Denmark to spice up its surveillance capability. Copenhagen just lately pledged $4bn for Greenland safety although the Trump administration has been dismissive.

However will Nato proposals for a much bigger, higher Arctic presence be sufficient for the Trump administration?

Julianne Smith was the US ambassador to Nato till President Trump's re-election; she is now the president of Clarion Methods.

"This week's assembly is completely important," she informed me. "I believe it will likely be a turning level a technique or one other. The representatives from Denmark and Greenland are coming ready.

"They're taking this second very critically, however the true query is whether or not any of those proposals will truly fulfill a White Home that appears extra decided and fascinated about increasing US territory than truly addressing the safety of Greenland itself."

Is that this truly about safety?

If safety was actually all that Donald Trump was involved about, then the Pacific Excessive North is a much more delicate space of the Arctic for the US than Greenland, argues Ian Lesser, a Distinguished Fellow on the German Marshall Fund of the US.

That is the place Russian and US presence and pursuits come into shut contact, he informed me. In reality, there are two small islands in the midst of the Bering Strait, the place you possibly can doubtlessly stroll from the US to Russia in midwinter. Huge Diomede is in Russia, and Little Diomede is within the US state of Alaska.

However tensions have risen right here since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The waters of the Bering Strait are key to Russia for the transit of strategic nuclear belongings and American and Canadian fighter jets have repeatedly been compelled to scramble to intercept Russian army planes off the Arctic coast.

Ian Lesser believes Donald Trump's deal with Greenland, reasonably than Alaska, suggests extra of an curiosity in financial safety, reasonably than safety within the conventional sense.

However, he says, each may very well be handled with out touching Danish or Greenlandic sovereignty: Nato may assist enhance safety and defence, and the US may negotiate funding rights in Greenland.

Greenland is wealthy in pure sources, together with uncommon earths and minerals that the US and each different world energy crave due to their significance to high-tech industries, together with superior defence applied sciences.

Washington additionally has its eye on the potential for brand new, doubtlessly profitable transport routes opening up because the Arctic ice melts.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/9087/live/b99b0fd0-f0fb-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/9087/live/b99b0fd0-f0fb-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/9087/live/b99b0fd0-f0fb-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/9087/live/b99b0fd0-f0fb-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/9087/live/b99b0fd0-f0fb-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/9087/live/b99b0fd0-f0fb-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/9087/live/b99b0fd0-f0fb-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/9087/live/b99b0fd0-f0fb-11f0-b5f7-49f0357294ff.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters Greenland's Prime Minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen and Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen standing side-by-side at two separate lecterns with microphones during a press conference in Copenhagen, Denmark." class="sc-5340b511-0 hLdNfA"/> Reuters Greenland's Prime Minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen and Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen talking at a press convention on 13 January in Copenhagen.

However it's laborious to see how Donald Trump's urge for food for territorial expansionism can go away room for negotiation on Wednesday. These had been his phrases in the beginning of the week:

"We're speaking about buying not leasing.... We've got bases on Greenland. I may put a whole lot of troopers if I need however you want greater than that. You want possession. You actually need title."

Greenland is a territory of Denmark and subsequently politically European, however geographically, it's a part of North America. The island is nearer to Washington than Copenhagen and Donald Trump appears to have a eager curiosity in making America great-er by way of dimension and dominance.

Most Greenlanders say they wish to be unbiased of Denmark however much more of them (85% in polls) reject the concept of being American.

Forward of Wednesday's assembly in Washington, Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen stated his nation confronted a geopolitical disaster, "and if now we have to decide on between the US and Denmark right here and now, then we select Denmark."

However nonetheless the assembly with the US vp and secretary of state goes on Wednesday, Donald Trump is the Joker within the pack of playing cards, says Sara Olvig of Greenland's Centre for Overseas and Safety coverage.

"What's going to occur will come right down to the president," she informed me. "And he is very unpredictable. But when the US takes Greenland by coercion, the US will not be the land of the free... It will likely be the tip of Nato and of the democratic world as we all know it."

Russia and China can be watching the end result of Wednesday's assembly, probably as intently as Greenlanders. There's a lot at stake right here.

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