How backchannels and US mediators pulled rivals again from the brink

[ad_1] Soutik Biswas and Vikas Pandey BBC Information

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/6db6/live/f9f20be0-2db7-11f0-a995-d92e169f1d6c.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/6db6/live/f9f20be0-2db7-11f0-a995-d92e169f1d6c.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6db6/live/f9f20be0-2db7-11f0-a995-d92e169f1d6c.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/6db6/live/f9f20be0-2db7-11f0-a995-d92e169f1d6c.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/6db6/live/f9f20be0-2db7-11f0-a995-d92e169f1d6c.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/6db6/live/f9f20be0-2db7-11f0-a995-d92e169f1d6c.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/6db6/live/f9f20be0-2db7-11f0-a995-d92e169f1d6c.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6db6/live/f9f20be0-2db7-11f0-a995-d92e169f1d6c.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Reuters People gather in celebration after the ceasefire announcement between India and Pakistan, in Islamabad, Pakistan, May 10, 2025." class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> Reuters Crowds gathered in Islamabad after the ceasefire announcement

In a dramatic flip of occasions, US President Donald Trump took to social media on Saturday to announce that India and Pakistan - after 4 tense days of cross-border clashes - had agreed to a "full and speedy ceasefire".

Behind the scenes, US mediators, alongside diplomatic backchannels and regional gamers, proved crucial in pulling the nuclear-armed rivals again from the brink, specialists say.

Nevertheless, hours after a ceasefire deal, India and Pakistan have been buying and selling accusations of recent violations - underscoring its fragility.

India accused Pakistan of "repeated violations" whereas Pakistan insisted it remained dedicated to the ceasefire, with its forces displaying "accountability and restraint."

Earlier than Trump's ceasefire announcement, India and Pakistan have been spiralling in direction of what many feared may change into a full-blown battle.

After a lethal militant assault killed 26 vacationers in Indian-administered Kashmir final month, India launched air strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir - triggering days of aerial clashes, artillery duels and, by Saturday morning, accusations from each side of missile strikes on one another's airbases.

The rhetoric escalated sharply, with every nation claiming to have inflicted heavy injury whereas foiling the opposite's assaults.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/48a8/live/f0458420-2dba-11f0-963d-b9a247f46f6e.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/48a8/live/f0458420-2dba-11f0-963d-b9a247f46f6e.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/48a8/live/f0458420-2dba-11f0-963d-b9a247f46f6e.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/48a8/live/f0458420-2dba-11f0-963d-b9a247f46f6e.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/48a8/live/f0458420-2dba-11f0-963d-b9a247f46f6e.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/48a8/live/f0458420-2dba-11f0-963d-b9a247f46f6e.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/48a8/live/f0458420-2dba-11f0-963d-b9a247f46f6e.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/48a8/live/f0458420-2dba-11f0-963d-b9a247f46f6e.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images President Donald Trump listens as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the White House " class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> Getty Photographs US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (left) and President Donald Trump

Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow on the Brookings Establishment in Washington DC, says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's name to Pakistani Military Chief Asim Munir on 9 Could "might need been the essential level".

"There's nonetheless a lot we do not know in regards to the roles of varied worldwide actors, however it's clear over the previous three days that a minimum of three nations have been working to de-escalate - the US, in fact, but additionally the UK and Saudi Arabia," she says.

Pakistan's Overseas Minister Ishaq Dar informed Pakistani media that "three dozen nations" have been concerned within the diplomacy - together with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US.

"One query is whether or not, if this name had come earlier - proper after the preliminary Indian strikes, when Pakistan was already claiming some Indian losses and an off-ramp was obtainable - it might need prevented additional escalation," Ms Madan says.

This is not the primary time US mediation has helped defuse an India–Pakistan disaster.

In his memoir, former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo claimed he was woken as much as communicate with an unnamed "Indian counterpart", who feared Pakistan was getting ready nuclear weapons through the 2019 standoff.

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/685b/live/29ae2840-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/685b/live/29ae2840-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/685b/live/29ae2840-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/685b/live/29ae2840-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/685b/live/29ae2840-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/685b/live/29ae2840-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/685b/live/29ae2840-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/685b/live/29ae2840-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Reuters Kashmiri men greet each other after the ceasefire announcement between India and Pakistan, in Srinagar, May 10, 2025." class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> Reuters Kashmiri males greeted one another after the ceasefire announcement in Srinagar

Former Indian Excessive Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria later wrote that Pompeo overstated each the danger of nuclear escalation and the US position in calming the battle.

However diplomats say there may be little doubt the US performed an essential position in defusing the disaster this time.

"The US was essentially the most outstanding exterior participant. Final time, Pompeo claimed they averted nuclear struggle. Whereas they will possible exaggerate, they might have performed the first diplomatic position, maybe amplifying Delhi's positions in Islamabad," Mr Bisaria informed the BBC on Saturday.

But on the outset, the US appeared strikingly standoffish.

As tensions flared, US Vice President JD Vance stated on Thursday that the US was not going to get entangled in a struggle that is "basically none of our enterprise".

"We won't management these nations although. Basically, India has its gripes with Pakistan... America cannot inform the Indians to put down their arms. We won't inform the Pakistanis to put down their arms. And so we will proceed to pursue this factor by means of diplomatic channels, " he stated in a tv interview.

In the meantime, President Trump stated earlier this week: "I do know each [leaders of India and Pakistan] very effectively, and I need to see them work it out... I need to see them cease, and hopefully they will cease now".

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/860c/live/411adc80-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/860c/live/411adc80-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/860c/live/411adc80-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/860c/live/411adc80-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/860c/live/411adc80-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/860c/live/411adc80-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/860c/live/411adc80-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/860c/live/411adc80-2e31-11f0-891d-0bd4e1f9698b.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Pakistani people celebrate after the ceasefire. Men are seen with their hands in the air and waving flags" class="sc-4abb68ca-0 ldLcJe"/> Getty Photographs Pakistani individuals celebrated after the ceasefire between Pakistan and India, in Hyderabad, Sindh province

Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defence analyst, informed the BBC this gave the impression to be the one distinction from earlier events.

"The American position was a continuation of previous patterns, however with one key distinction - this time, they initially stayed hands-off, watching the disaster unfold as a substitute of leaping in straight away. Solely once they noticed the way it was taking part in out did they step in to handle it," Mr Haider informed the BBC.

Specialists in Pakistan say because the escalation cycle deepened, Pakistan despatched "twin alerts", retaliating militarily whereas saying a Nationwide Command Authority (NCA) assembly - a transparent reminder of the nuclear overhang.

The NCA controls and takes operational selections concerning Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

This was across the time US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stepped in.

"The US was indispensable. This final result wouldn't have occurred with out Secretary Rubio's efforts," Ashley J Tellis, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace, informed the BBC.

What additionally helped was Washington's deepening ties with Delhi.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's private rapport with Trump, plus the US's broader strategic and financial stakes, gave the US administration diplomatic leverage to push each nuclear-armed rivals in direction of de-escalation.

Indian diplomats see three key peace tracks that occurred this time, very like after Pulwama–Balakot in 2019:

US and UK pressureSaudi mediation, with the Saudi junior overseas minister visiting each capitalsThe direct India-Pakistan channel between the 2 nationwide safety advisors (NSAs) Regardless of shifting international priorities and a hands-off posture at first, the US finally stepped in because the indispensable mediator between South Asia's nuclear rivals.

Whether or not overstated by its personal officers or underacknowledged by Delhi and Islamabad, specialists consider the US's position as disaster supervisor stays as important - and as sophisticated - as ever.

Doubts do, nevertheless, linger over the ceasefire's sturdiness after Saturday's occasions, with some Indian media reporting it was basically brokered by senior navy officers of the 2 nations - not the US.

"This ceasefire is certain to be a fragile one. It took place in a short time, amid sky-high tensions. India seems to have interpreted it in a different way than did the US and Pakistan," Michael Kugelman, a overseas coverage analyst, informed the BBC.

"Additionally, because it was put collectively so rapidly, the accord might lack the right ensures and assurances one would want at such a tense second."

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