Iran raises ‘human defend’ fears by rallying supporters to the streets

[ad_1] The loss of life of Khamenei within the February 2026 US–Israeli airstrikes on Tehran has triggered probably the most consequential constitutional transition within the Islamic Republic since 1989—and revived a query that has lengthy shadowed the system since its founding: whether or not supreme authority rests totally on spiritual legitimacy or political energy.

Inside days, Iranian state media introduced that the Meeting of Specialists had chosen his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a determine lengthy highly effective behind the scenes however missing broad clerical standing, as the brand new Supreme Chief.

The workplace of Supreme Chief is outlined primarily by Articles 5, 107, 109 and 110 of the Structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Article 5 establishes the precept of velayat-e faqih, entrusting governance in the course of the occultation of the Twelfth Imam to a professional jurist combining spiritual authority with political competence. Article 107 assigns the Meeting of Specialists the duty of choosing the Supreme Chief, whereas Article 109 units out the required {qualifications}, together with justice, political perception and administrative potential.

The precedent of 1989

When Khomeini died in June 1989, the Islamic Republic confronted a right away management vacuum. No apparent successor possessed comparable clerical stature.

The Meeting of Specialists in the end selected Ali Khamenei, then president, regardless of his restricted standing as a senior jurist; the structure was quickly revised to accommodate the choice, stating that the chief needn't possess the complete recognition as a grand ayatollah.

The modification mirrored political calculation relatively than summary precept.

The episode established an everlasting precedent: constitutional interpretation may adapt to political necessity. In observe, legitimacy rested not solely on spiritual authority but in addition on institutional alignment and safety energy.

Mojtaba Khamenei now confronts the same dilemma. Like his father in 1989, he isn't broadly recognised inside the conventional hierarchy of Shiʿi scholarship as a senior jurist.

Wartime succession

Beneath Article 107, the Meeting of Specialists should deliberate and appoint the Supreme Chief, ordinarily implying a proper session. But Mojtaba’s choice occurred amid ongoing battle and extreme disruption following the airstrikes that killed Ali Khamenei.

Public details about the method stays sparse. It's unclear whether or not the meeting gathered bodily, voted remotely or reached its choice by means of emergency session. Iranian state media confirmed his appointment however offered few procedural particulars.

Such ambiguity doesn't essentially invalidate the choice inside the Islamic Republic’s versatile constitutional observe. Nonetheless, the opacity surrounding the method has intensified debate over the legitimacy of the succession.

For greater than a decade Mojtaba sought to strengthen his clerical credentials. Starting in 2009, he taught dars-e kharej—superior jurisprudence seminars historically led by senior clerics aspiring to marjaʿ standing. Observers broadly interpreted the transfer as preparation for a doable future succession.

Studies from Persian-language sources counsel some senior grand ayatollahs objected to what they noticed as a politically engineered effort to fabricate clerical authority. Makes an attempt have been reportedly made to acquire written attestations of Mojtaba’s ijtihad, although proof of broad clerical recognition stays restricted.

After roughly 13 years, Mojtaba suspended the lessons in September 2024 as succession hypothesis intensified.

Energy with out workplace

Energy within the Islamic Republic has not often flowed by means of formal titles alone. It typically strikes by means of the networks surrounding the Supreme Chief.

Over twenty years Mojtaba emerged as one of the crucial influential but least publicly seen figures within the Iranian state. His authority derived not from elected workplace however from his position inside Beit-e Rahbari, the place he functioned as a gatekeeper to his father—managing entry, filtering political actors and coordinating with safety establishments.

In observe this amounted to a tightly managed safety community of clerical aides, intelligence officers and Revolutionary Guard commanders whose affect depended much less on formal workplace than on proximity to the Chief.

This casual authority allowed Mojtaba to domesticate a patronage base carefully tied to the IRGC. The USA Treasury sanctioned him in 2019, stating that he acted on behalf of the Supreme Chief whereas sustaining shut relationships with IRGC components and the Basij militia.

The Guards connection

The connection between the Supreme Chief and the Revolutionary Guards deepened decisively in the course of the 2009 post-election unrest.

Following the disputed presidential vote that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to energy, mass protests erupted throughout Iran. The Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia in the end performed the decisive position in suppressing the demonstrations.

The occasions of 2009 reaffirmed the supremacy of the Supreme Chief whereas strengthening the alliance between the management and the safety equipment. Many analysts argue Mojtaba performed a coordinating position contained in the Chief’s workplace in the course of the disaster.

One determine embodied the partnership between the Supreme Chief and the Revolutionary Guards extra absolutely than every other: Common Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Drive.

Soleimani maintained unusually direct entry to Ali Khamenei and operated with a level of autonomy uncommon inside the Islamic Republic’s formal hierarchy, shaping Tehran’s regional navy technique throughout Iraq, Syria and past.

His killing by a United States drone strike in January 2020 eliminated a central node within the system that linked the Chief to the Guards’ exterior operations.

Though the IRGC remained institutionally highly effective, no successor absolutely replicated Soleimani’s mixture of battlefield authority, political affect and private entry to the Supreme Chief..

Continuity and uncertainty

One other turning level got here with the loss of life of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in 2024.

Lengthy considered as a believable successor with stronger clerical credentials, Raisi’s absence narrowed the sector and sharpened consideration on Mojtaba Khamenei, whose embedded place inside Beit-e Rahbari and longstanding ties to the safety equipment left him uniquely positioned when wartime succession arrived.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s accession doesn't resolve the deeper tensions inside the Islamic Republic. Like his father in 1989, he assumes energy with out universally recognised clerical authority. His legitimacy rests as a substitute on political coalition, institutional continuity and the help of the Revolutionary Guards.

On the identical time, the battle that accompanied his elevation has destabilised the very networks that sustained his rise. The destruction of Beit-e Rahbari and the deaths inside the management circle have left the interior workings of the system partially obscured.

Mojtaba inherits the identical contradiction that formed his father’s rise: a system that claims spiritual authority but repeatedly turns to political necessity in moments of disaster.

In 1989, that necessity elevated Ali Khamenei because the republic emerged from the lengthy shadow of the Iran–Iraq Battle. In 2026, it has elevated his son amid battle as soon as once more—leaving the sturdiness of Iran’s constitutional order dependent, as earlier than, much less on theology than on energy.