Iranian Calculus and Response Choices following the US strikes

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Brian Carter and Nicholas Carl

June 23, 2025

NOTE: CTP-ISW is monitoring early studies of Iranian missile assaults on US forces in Qatar and Iraq on the time of this publication. CTP-ISW will cowl these occasions in our twice each day Iran Updates discovered right here.

Iranian leaders are at present calibrating their response to america' placing their nuclear program. How they finally reply will depend upon what they conclude is important to protect the Islamic Republic and guarantee its longevity. That conclusion will, in flip, derive from how Iranian leaders perceive their present scenario and their threat tolerance. The next is an evaluation that examines these elements and what key choices Tehran is dealing with and the way it will possible proceed.

Context

The USA struck and severely broken three Iranian nuclear websites on June 21, utilizing Huge Ordnance Penetrator bunker busters and Tomahawk cruise missiles.[1] The USA focused the 2 main Iranian enrichment services at Natanz and Fordow in addition to a 3rd web site that saved processed uranium.[2] The US strikes possible destroyed a substantial portion of the Iranian enriched uranium stockpile and cascades of centrifuges. Although Iran seems to have moved a few of its nuclear materials and tools to different undisclosed websites beforehand, the US strikes have possible disrupted the Iranian nuclear program significantly.[3] The US strikes got here as Israel has performed its personal strike marketing campaign into Iran, focusing on the nuclear program, army and safety websites, power infrastructure, and key leaders. The US and Israeli efforts mixed quantity to essentially the most severe blow to the Islamic Republic since its struggle towards Saddam Hussein’s Iraq within the Nineteen Eighties.

Senior Iranian officers have responded by vowing retaliation towards america. Unspecified US officers have mentioned that Iran might assault US forces within the Center East within the coming days, whereas others have instructed that an assault might be imminent.[4]

Iranian Issues

Iranian leaders have restricted choices in responding to america. They might, in fact, grant concessions on their nuclear program in addition to probably on their missile capabilities and extraterritorial actions, as america has demanded. However Iranian Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei would possible contemplate such concessions to be tantamount to give up and one other step towards the weakening of his regime. Khamenei has lengthy relied on the Iranian nuclear program, missile arsenal, and so-called “Axis of Resistance” as his chief technique of projecting energy and threatening adversaries. Compromising on these elementary tenets of Iranian technique would considerably erode Iranian army energy. Khamenei could also be particularly averse to such concessions now, whereas his regime faces the unprecedented problem of simultaneous US and Israeli strikes. Some Iranian officers seem amenable to compromise with america, on condition that the nuclear program, missiles, and proxy and accomplice forces have demonstrably failed to discourage assaults on Iran.[5] However Khamenei himself has proven no signal of contemplating such concessions presently. Khamenei could as an alternative subsequently, calculate that the perfect strategy to preserving his regime, which is his foremost precedence, is continuous to combat and resist.

This evaluation assumes that Khamenei will keep his previous calculus and decision-making tendencies. Khamenei faces an unprecedented circumstance, nonetheless, which may lead him to interrupt from his previous patterns of conduct. If Khamenei concludes that the Iranian nuclear program, missile arsenal, and Axis of Resistance are not important to regime survival, he could acquiesce to US calls for.

Assuming Khamenei decides to proceed combating, he'll possible base his final choice on a number of elements in thoughts. These elements embrace:

His need to keep away from additional escalation with america. Khamenei seeks to rebuild deterrence vis-à-vis america and Israel however with out inviting additional escalation. Khamenei, subsequently, must steadiness between utilizing adequate pressure to discourage whereas additionally avoiding any assault that drives america and Israel to hit again more durable. Placing this steadiness shall be extraordinarily tough—if not inconceivable. The disruption to the army command. Khamenei might want to calibrate his response with out the important thing generals on whom he has relied for many years for recommendation. The Israeli killing of senior Iranian army officers deprives Khamenei of those trusted subordinates and induces a brief disruption to the chain of command.[6] Khamenei will possible face friction right here, as he lacks the identical private rapport with the brand new cadre of commanders. The precarious home scenario. Khamenei is contemplating a serious army endeavor towards america, whereas his regime is more and more unstable domestically. Israeli strikes have focused Iranian power infrastructure and websites tied to home surveillance and social management.[7] These strikes have prompted extreme financial disruption and degraded the regime's capability to repress its more and more restive inhabitants. The general degradation of Iranian Capabilities. Iran has misplaced a lot of its levers of energy over the previous 19 months. The Axis of Resistance is ill-positioned to combat a large-scale struggle towards america, as it's exhausted from many months of combating Israel.[8] Israeli strikes have, furthermore, degraded Iranian air defenses and missile capabilities, making the regime extra susceptible than it has been in years to traditional assault.[9]

Key Selections

Khamenei will face two key choices as he contemplates how to reply to america. He should determine firstly find out how to retaliate (i.e., via what means). Khamenei has 4 actual response choices on this context.

Missile and drone strikes. Iran might hearth a big quantity of missiles and drones at US forces within the Center East. Iranian missile forces are badly degraded, as already famous, as Israel has destroyed a big variety of the Iranian missile launchers.[10] However Iran nonetheless has sufficient capability to summon a big volley of projectiles focusing on US forces, particularly in Iraq and across the Arabian Peninsula.[11] Militia assaults. Iran might order its proxy and accomplice militias to assault US forces throughout the area. Iran would possible look to its Iraqi militias to threaten US bases in Iraq and Syria, and look to the Houthis to threaten US naval property across the Pink Sea and the Gulf of Aden. These teams have beforehand carried out these roles in help of Iranian targets.[12] Iran has outfitted each events with superior strike capabilities, equivalent to missiles and drones, that they may use to focus on US forces.[13] Naval aggression. Iranian naval forces have emerged largely unscathed from the struggle with Israel. Iranian officers have brazenly threatened to “shut the Strait of Hormuz” in current days, which in apply would possible contain utilizing naval property and coastal techniques to assault worldwide delivery.[14] The Iranian Artesh and IRGC have prioritized growing their pressure projection capabilities lately with the intention to threaten commerce additional overseas.[15] Terror operations. Iran and Hezbollah have spent years growing a community of covert cells overseas, probably together with in some Western and Latin American nations. Iranian officers have threatened explicitly to activate these cells to conduct terror assaults in america in retaliation for the US strikes.[16] There may be precedent for Iran attempting to make use of covert cells to conduct terror assaults on US soil.[17] Khamenei should individually determine how a lot threat he's ready to just accept. Any assault towards US pursuits and personnel will threat escalating the struggle additional, no matter how a lot pressure is used. Khamenei can mitigate that threat by choosing a much less dramatic assault. He can alternatively determine to impose a excessive value on america, which might carry a really excessive threat of escalation. No matter what choice he makes, any assault on US pursuits and personnel carries the danger of imposing severe losses, which Khamenei would settle for beforehand.

Conclusion

The more than likely Iranian response presently is a tempered missile or militia assault on US forces within the Center East. Probably the most harmful Iranian response would come with a mixture of the 4 choices described above and search to impose a severe value on america. Even a tempered missile or militia assault would threat US casualties, which needs to be unacceptable for Washington. No matter which path Khamenei chooses, america should be ready to defend its pursuits and personnel and take acceptable actions to discourage Iranian assaults on the American folks and homeland.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/information/articles/cvg9r4q99g4o

[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-says-entrances-tunnels-irans-isfahan-site-hit-by-us-strike-2025-06-22/

[3] https://nypost.com/2025/06/23/world-news/satellite-images-show-trucks-lined-up-at-irans-fordo-nuclear-facility-before-us-air-strikes/

[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-retaliation-against-us-forces-could-come-soon-us-officials-say-2025-06-23/ ; https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/exclusive-iranian-retaliation-against-us-forces-most-probably-hours-away

[5] https://www.theatlantic.com/worldwide/archive/2025/06/inside-plot-push-khamenei-aside/683286/

[6] https://time.com/7293886/iranian-generals-scientists-targets-killed-by-israeli-strikes/

[7] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/18/world/middleeast/israel-iran-strikes-facilities-map.html ; https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-attack-news/card/iran-s-revolutionary-guard-confirms-israel-killed-its-intelligence-chief-TyadaKWHo9IU3GPtFC1A?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjghoFgco2hSNDK8aEfRAZUQHmwGqp9atgP5KttysE2glrZSdIJVTJ6I7grFhYpercent3D&gaa_ts=6859854d&gaa_sig=4XOguJMzmkYBqn95E6PrsD2pYce71BMdRt4_DtTzA3C2zafaYzo_p7eK27kAkXrtYf8crXrtZ8PLaNwJ5E8rDQpercent3Dpercent3D

[8] https://www.criticalthreats.org/evaluation/the-deafening-silence-of-irans-proxies

[9] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/22/trump-israel-iran-strikes-air-defenses ; https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/politics/iran-weapons-us-bases.html

[10] https://www.jns.org/israel-destroys-iranian-missile-launchers-used-in-morning-attack/

[11] https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2025/06/israels-attack-and-the-limits-of-irans-missile-strategy/

[12] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/cost-inaction-yemen; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-25-2023; https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/pivot-to-offense-how-iran-is-adapting-for-modern-conflict-and-warfare/

[13] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/pivot-to-offense-how-iran-is-adapting-for-modern-conflict-and-warfare/; https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/yemens-houthis-and-the-expansion-of-irans-axis-of-resistance/