Jair Bolsonaro’s rise and fall

[ad_1] Caio Quero Head of BBC Information Brasil

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/7a42/live/782184f0-8fc4-11f0-98cb-fd5ed4a6011e.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/7a42/live/782184f0-8fc4-11f0-98cb-fd5ed4a6011e.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7a42/live/782184f0-8fc4-11f0-98cb-fd5ed4a6011e.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/7a42/live/782184f0-8fc4-11f0-98cb-fd5ed4a6011e.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/7a42/live/782184f0-8fc4-11f0-98cb-fd5ed4a6011e.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/7a42/live/782184f0-8fc4-11f0-98cb-fd5ed4a6011e.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/7a42/live/782184f0-8fc4-11f0-98cb-fd5ed4a6011e.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7a42/live/782184f0-8fc4-11f0-98cb-fd5ed4a6011e.jpg.webp" loading="eager" alt="Getty Images Jair Bolsonaro" class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> Getty Photos Brazil's ex-president has been convicted of plotting a coup

In September 2018, as Jair Bolsonaro campaigned within the south-eastern metropolis of Juiz de Fora, a 40-year-old man pushed by way of the group and stabbed the presidential candidate within the abdomen.

Photos of Bolsonaro doubled over in ache, carrying a T-shirt in Brazil's soccer colors, had been shared hundreds of thousands of occasions and broadcast endlessly on tv.

The previous military captain survived, and the shock and commotion attributable to the assault boosted his outsider picture and helped carry him to victory weeks later.

Seven years on, Brazil's Supreme Court docket has discovered him responsible of plotting a coup and sentenced him to greater than 27 years in jail. On the face of it, Bolsonaro's profession is over.

Nonetheless, he stays one of the consequential politicians of current a long time, and with allies already pushing for amnesty, his affect and even the prospect of a comeback nonetheless hangs over Brazil's future.

The lengthy street to energy

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/4398/live/05aa89b0-8f30-11f0-b391-6936825093bd.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/4398/live/05aa89b0-8f30-11f0-b391-6936825093bd.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/4398/live/05aa89b0-8f30-11f0-b391-6936825093bd.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/4398/live/05aa89b0-8f30-11f0-b391-6936825093bd.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/4398/live/05aa89b0-8f30-11f0-b391-6936825093bd.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/4398/live/05aa89b0-8f30-11f0-b391-6936825093bd.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/4398/live/05aa89b0-8f30-11f0-b391-6936825093bd.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/4398/live/05aa89b0-8f30-11f0-b391-6936825093bd.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Jair Bolsonaro spent three decades as an obscure congressman" class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> Getty Photos Jair Bolsonaro spent three a long time as an obscure congressman

Due to his inflammatory rhetoric, Bolsonaro was by no means taken significantly by most of Brazil's political institution earlier than turning into president.

In July 2018, three months earlier than the election, I used to be BBC Brasil's São Paulo bureau chief. In conversations with pollsters, politicians and enterprise leaders, the consensus was clear: regardless of main in most polls, Bolsonaro couldn't win; he lacked the equipment of a serious occasion and his help would shortly fade as soon as tv campaigning started.

Bolsonaro was a former military official, who left the forces after campaigning for larger army pay and being accused - then acquitted - of plotting a bombing as a part of wage protests within the Eighties.

He then started a three-decade profession as a congressman, constructing a persona on incendiary statements and defence of the army dictatorship that led to 1985.

For many years, he was a relentless presence on tv discuss reveals the place he railed in opposition to democracy and praised authoritarian rule.

In a 1999 interview, he mentioned that as president, he would stage a coup on his first day and "end the work" of the dictatorship by killing 30,000 individuals. The primary, he mentioned, can be the then-president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso.

All by way of his seven phrases in Congress, Bolsonaro remained on the fringes of Brazil's political institution - an outsider.

However in 2018, Brazilians had been hungry for simply that.

The nation had endured 5 years of turmoil: mass protests in 2013, a deep recession, the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in 2016, and the sweeping "Automobile Wash" investigation.

That probe implicated politicians throughout the political spectrum, however hit hardest the Staff' Occasion (PT) of Rousseff and Lula, who had ruled Brazil from 2003 to 2010.

In April 2018, Lula - the immensely fashionable former president who had left workplace with approval rankings above 80% - was jailed on corruption prices later annulled by the Supreme Court docket. To many Brazilians, each politician appeared compromised.

Bolsonaro noticed his alternative.

Principally by way of social media, he managed to assemble a broad coalition; the center and lower-middle lessons annoyed with the PT and the sense of widespread corruption; a conservative evangelical neighborhood that already represented greater than 26% of the inhabitants; parts of the police and army; far-right militants; enterprise sectors dissatisfied with the financial system; and - in all probability most necessary - hundreds of thousands of strange Brazilians who merely believed it was time for a change.

In October 2018, that coalition turned out in power to vote him into energy. His presidency seemed nothing like several Brazilian authorities because the nation's return to democracy within the Eighties.

An outsider who modified every thing

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/891b/live/8ce02f70-8f30-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/891b/live/8ce02f70-8f30-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/891b/live/8ce02f70-8f30-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/891b/live/8ce02f70-8f30-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/891b/live/8ce02f70-8f30-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/891b/live/8ce02f70-8f30-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/891b/live/8ce02f70-8f30-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/891b/live/8ce02f70-8f30-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Supporters of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro, hold allusive signs a demonstration during Independence Day, in Sao Paulo, Brazil on September 7, 2025." class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> Getty Photos Supporters of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro have held rallies to indicate their backing

Bolsonaro managed to show the Brazilian proper right into a mass motion for the primary time in historical past. But translating that right into a authorities was one other story.

He assembled a cupboard with little expertise in federal administration and leaned closely on army officers to fill key posts.

His administration was pro-business, and aligned itself diplomatically with Donald Trump's United States - who Bolsonaro hailed as an inspiration - and with different conservative governments in Hungary and Israel.

He weakened oversight and relaxed protections on the setting that favoured agribusiness. The end result was a surge in deforestation within the Amazon and different areas - sparking worldwide anger.

However the true challenges got here with the pandemic in 2020. From the start, Bolsonaro opposed social distancing, arguing it will harm the financial system.

On a number of events, he joined mass demonstrations the place recommendation to put on masks and distance was brazenly defied. In March 2020, he in contrast Covid-19 to a "little flu". And within the following month, when requested in regards to the mounting dying toll, he replied merely: "I am not a gravedigger" - a comment he later admitted regretting.

Bolsonaro was additionally a vaccine sceptic, resisting affords to purchase jabs for his inhabitants and refusing to get one himself. In defiance of his personal well being officers, he promoted unproven therapies resembling hydroxychloroquine.

Finally, vaccines grew to become out there. However many specialists imagine that 1000's of lives might have been saved if the federal government had adopted social distancing measures and immunised earlier. In whole, greater than 700,000 Brazilians died of Covid-19 between 2020 and March 2023.

The president's nemesis

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/c8b0/live/1ace42e0-8f31-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/c8b0/live/1ace42e0-8f31-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c8b0/live/1ace42e0-8f31-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/c8b0/live/1ace42e0-8f31-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/c8b0/live/1ace42e0-8f31-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/c8b0/live/1ace42e0-8f31-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/c8b0/live/1ace42e0-8f31-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c8b0/live/1ace42e0-8f31-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Alexandre de Moraes" class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> Getty Photos Alexandre de Moraes was one of many 5 Supreme Court docket justices tasked with delivering a verdict within the trial

Greater than any opposition occasion, Bolsonaro's most formidable foe throughout his presidency was the Supreme Court docket, which struck down his makes an attempt to dam social distancing and masks use throughout the pandemic, and in addition rejected insurance policies that will have made it simpler for Brazilians to amass firearms.

One choose grew to become his nemesis: Alexandre de Moraes. A profession public prosecutor and legislation professor, he had served in conservative administrations in São Paulo earlier than being appointed to the court docket by centre-right President Michel Temer, who succeeded Rousseff.

In 2020, Moraes was appointed to guide an inquiry into the unfold of disinformation on social media that focused his court docket. That later branched into different circumstances, together with one centered on threats in opposition to democracy by Bolsonaro supporters.

All had been saved below Moraes's supervision.

Such a focus of energy grew to become some extent of criticism, not solely from Bolsonaro loyalists but additionally from some legal professionals and centrist politicians.

Moraes's position, nevertheless, was grounded in legislation and most of his selections had been later upheld by the remainder of the Supreme Court docket. For some analysts and commentators, entrusting him with this process was seen as the one solution to safeguard Brazil's democracy.

Nonetheless, Bolsonaro's dissatisfaction solely grew, and on many events he declared that he wouldn't adjust to the court docket's rulings.

At mass demonstrations in Brasília and São Paulo in September 2021, he escalated his assaults, calling Moraes a canalha (scoundrel) and declaring that he would solely depart the presidency "arrested, useless, or victorious", including that he "wished to inform the traitors that I'll by no means be arrested".

The speech was extensively seen as a direct menace to Brazil's democratic establishments.

Conspiracy and election controversy

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/cd72/live/5c6110c0-8f31-11f0-84c8-99de564f0440.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/cd72/live/5c6110c0-8f31-11f0-84c8-99de564f0440.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/cd72/live/5c6110c0-8f31-11f0-84c8-99de564f0440.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/cd72/live/5c6110c0-8f31-11f0-84c8-99de564f0440.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/cd72/live/5c6110c0-8f31-11f0-84c8-99de564f0440.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/cd72/live/5c6110c0-8f31-11f0-84c8-99de564f0440.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/cd72/live/5c6110c0-8f31-11f0-84c8-99de564f0440.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/cd72/live/5c6110c0-8f31-11f0-84c8-99de564f0440.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Jair Bolsonaro" class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> Getty Photos In 2021, Lula - who had left jail in November 2019 and had all prices in opposition to him annulled by the Supreme Court docket - was cleared to run within the October 2022 election, organising a head-to-head with the incumbent.

Bolsonaro and his allies started an intense marketing campaign alleging - with out proof - that the nation's digital voting machines may very well be hacked. Bolsonaro claimed that Lula might solely win in opposition to him by way of fraud.

The marketing campaign was extensively seen as an effort to put the groundwork to contest any end result that went in opposition to him.

Bolsonaro insisted on paper ballots just for the election, and advised he would reject any end result with out them. Electoral authorities rejected the proposal.

There have been additional controversies throughout voting. On the day of the run-off between Bolsonaro and Lula, the federal street police - below Bolsonaro's authorities - arrange roadblocks in areas the place Lula had sturdy help.

The federal government claimed it was to forestall fraud, but it surely was extensively seen as an try to cease Lula's supporters from reaching the polls.

It was Moraes, the Supreme Court docket justice, who ordered the roadblocks lifted and threatened to jail the police chief in the event that they continued.

In the long run, as most polls had predicted, Lula gained - however by a really slight margin of lower than two share factors.

Obstinance turns to violence

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/f4fb/live/a4ad4140-8f32-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/f4fb/live/a4ad4140-8f32-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f4fb/live/a4ad4140-8f32-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/f4fb/live/a4ad4140-8f32-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/f4fb/live/a4ad4140-8f32-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/f4fb/live/a4ad4140-8f32-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/f4fb/live/a4ad4140-8f32-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f4fb/live/a4ad4140-8f32-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Massive demonstration in Sao Paulo in 2023" class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> Getty Photos A professional-Bolsonaro demonstration in Sao Paulo in 2023

Within the aftermath of the election, Bolsonaro remained silent and out of public view. When he lastly spoke, it was solely briefly. He didn't acknowledge defeat - one thing that he would by no means do - however authorised the beginning of the transition.

On the similar time, instigated by the president, his supporters had been utilizing lorries to dam roads throughout Brazil, whereas tons of of Bolsonaro loyalists camped exterior military barracks demanding that the election be annulled and the armed forces intervene to forestall Lula's inauguration.

Later investigations confirmed that, throughout this era, Bolsonaro met army leaders to debate imposing a state of emergency to overturn the election.

The plan didn't proceed as a result of two of the three army chiefs refused to participate, in response to statements they gave below oath. Police later found {that a} plan to assassinate Lula and Moraes had been printed by one of many president's aides contained in the presidential palace.

Bolsonaro denies any data in regards to the plans and argues that he solely mentioned Constitutional measures with army chiefs – though Brazilian legislation doesn't permit for a state of emergency to be declared with a purpose to annul an election.

Within the closing days of 2022, whereas nonetheless president, Bolsonaro flew to Florida and didn't return to attend Lula's inauguration on 1 January, 2023 - breaking a practice wherein the outgoing president arms the presidential sash to his successor.

On 8 January, Brazil witnessed one thing unprecedented: 1000's of Bolsonaro supporters stormed Congress, the Supreme Court docket and the presidential palace in Brasília, in what seemed like a tropical model of the US Capitol assault.

Lula was not on the palace, and safety forces introduced the riot below management by the tip of the day. Bolsonaro, nonetheless within the US, denied involvement - though a majority of Supreme Court docket justices later noticed the assault as a part of a broader plan to take away Lula.

The tip of the road... for now

<img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcset="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/f5f5/live/17d38e90-8f33-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/f5f5/live/17d38e90-8f33-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f5f5/live/17d38e90-8f33-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/f5f5/live/17d38e90-8f33-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/f5f5/live/17d38e90-8f33-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/f5f5/live/17d38e90-8f33-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/f5f5/live/17d38e90-8f33-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f5f5/live/17d38e90-8f33-11f0-9cf6-cbf3e73ce2b9.jpg.webp" loading="lazy" alt="Getty Images Jair Bolsonaro" class="sc-86c96223-0 fHZDyi"/> Getty Photos Bolsonaro finally returned to Brazil and set about regrouping his allies, aiming not solely on the 2026 presidential race but additionally at different spheres of energy. Within the 2024 native elections, his occasion gained greater than 500 mayoralties throughout Brazil.

On the similar time, investigations in opposition to him led by the federal police below the scrutiny of Moraes had been gathering tempo and, in April of 2025, the Supreme Court docket scheduled his trial.

Denouncing the lawsuit as political persecution, one in every of Bolsonaro's sons, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, moved to the US to foyer the brand new Trump administration and his Make America Nice Once more motion for measures in opposition to Brazil.

In July, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian items, and claimed Bolsonaro was the sufferer of a witch hunt.

Quickly after, an investigation was launched in Brazil into Eduardo and Jair Bolsonaro for interference into the judicial course of on account of their method to the US authorities. In August, Bolsonaro was positioned below home arrest.

The previous president was finally convicted by the Supreme Court docket on all 5 prices of which he had been accused, together with plotting a coup and main an armed conspiracy. He's now barred from operating for any public workplace till 2060.

The decision, although, may not be a useless finish for Bolsonaro.

Even earlier than the trial ended, his allies in Congress started negotiating a proposal of amnesty for his crimes that may very well be voted within the subsequent few weeks. On the similar time, politicians who search his endorsement for his or her presidential bids are already promising to pardon Bolsonaro in the event that they win.

A secretary within the Lula administration, who spoke on situation of anonymity, warned that any amnesty authorised by Congress can be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court docket - a situation that might set off a disaster if Bolsonaro's allies handle to elect numerous senators and deputies who might even try to take away Supreme Court docket justices.